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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 19:18:01 GMT -6
Without anymore context, I won’t comment strongly. However, if you feel this is sensationalism, I would disagree. The PV will play some role in next week’s cold snap. Here is a link to someone who spends enormous time researching and communicating information about SSW and the PV. www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/I'm not saying it's sensationalism. I was posting this with the intent of making it known there is that school of thought developing. I make no evaluation as to its veracity. Gotcha, my bad. Couldn’t remember if you had debated the term before or not. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2019 19:23:09 GMT -6
I'm not saying it's sensationalism. I was posting this with the intent of making it known there is that school of thought developing. I make no evaluation as to its veracity. Gotcha, my bad. Couldn’t remember if you had debated the term before or not. I have. And what I learned is that the use of the term isn't always cut and dried. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 4, 2019 19:34:25 GMT -6
exercise in futility to try and iron out GYB features this far out... we're only within the territory of a decent synoptic setup. I understand, true! But does the GEFS provide the 500mb maximum vorticity? The more I think about, I guess it would be overkill to have. I can't find it. But, I haven’t looked that hard for it haha! Ok, I'm going to geek out for just a moment... Vorticity on a 500mb chart is usually either absolute vorticity or sometimes just relative vorticity. And, you of course already know that absolute vorticity is the sum of planetary vorticity, curvature vorticity, and shear vorticity (note relative vorticity is just the sum of the latter two). Now I'm not aware of any site that computes the ensemble mean absolute or relative vorticity but I do know of one site that produces charts showing the probability of trough axis location based on the magnitude of curvature vorticity of all members; though I'm not really sure what thresholds are used. The caveat is that shear vorticity isn't accounted for and that's probably ok because the product is really meant to be used as a medium/long range diagnostic of the synoptic pattern of which curvature is perhaps more important. So the product can't really be used as a true representation of the "mean max vorticity". And besides the washing out of features when averaging several members several days out probably wouldn't make that anymore useful than what this product already does. Another thing to consider is that "probability" in an ensemble suite can be taken too literally. This issue is that ensembles tend to be under-dispersive and don't necessarily represent the true spread of possible outcomes. Anyway, here's the link... www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/loop.phpSelect GEFS, then Probability tab, then Features -> Trough Probability. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2019 19:44:28 GMT -6
!AccuNotWx!Pro has a relative vorticity mean product on the EPS.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 4, 2019 19:46:55 GMT -6
!AccuNotWx!Pro has a relative vorticity mean product on the EPS. Oh yeah! I never noticed that before. Cool. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2019 21:06:21 GMT -6
I understand, true! But does the GEFS provide the 500mb maximum vorticity? The more I think about, I guess it would be overkill to have. I can't find it. But, I haven’t looked that hard for it haha! Ok, I'm going to geek out for just a moment... Vorticity on a 500mb chart is usually either absolute vorticity or sometimes just relative vorticity. And, you of course already know that absolute vorticity is the sum of planetary vorticity, curvature vorticity, and shear vorticity (note relative vorticity is just the sum of the latter two). Now I'm not aware of any site that computes the ensemble mean absolute or relative vorticity but I do know of one site that produces charts showing the probability of trough axis location based on the magnitude of curvature vorticity of all members; though I'm not really sure what thresholds are used. The caveat is that shear vorticity isn't accounted for and that's probably ok because the product is really meant to be used as a medium/long range diagnostic of the synoptic pattern of which curvature is perhaps more important. So the product can't really be used as a true representation of the "mean max vorticity". And besides the washing out of features when averaging several members several days out probably wouldn't make that anymore useful than what this product already does. Another thing to consider is that "probability" in an ensemble suite can be taken too literally. This issue is that ensembles tend to be under-dispersive and don't necessarily represent the true spread of possible outcomes. Anyway, here's the link... www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/loop.phpSelect GEFS, then Probability tab, then Features -> Trough Probability. Thanks for your insight! It's very detailed. We care about where the maximum absolute vorticity is being advected. Where it's being advected is important and has a correlation to exciting weather at the surface. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2019 21:07:39 GMT -6
!AccuNotWx!Pro has a relative vorticity mean product on the EPS. Good to know! Thanks...you are very knowledgeable with the weather. It's fun to always see your upcoming pattern viewpoints (ideas). |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 22:04:42 GMT -6
00z gfs rights the ship.
Monday storm goes poof
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2019 22:30:05 GMT -6
And friday the 13th storm materializes lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2019 5:53:47 GMT -6
Lol @ the 6z GFS. Has 24-30 inches of snow for parts of Arkansas. over 18 inches for a large part of that state. Southern MO gets 6+ inches. We get about 2. Book it. This is for next weekend.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2019 7:24:12 GMT -6
My Goodness.
06z gfs for the win. Has all the materials needed. 1052 high brings insanely cold temps around the 12th up north then a beautiful system moves right through central US late next week as Snowman busy alluded to.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 5, 2019 7:47:03 GMT -6
Just in time for us to drive to Columbus (Easton) and back next weekend.
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Post by REB on Dec 5, 2019 9:38:31 GMT -6
Keep me posted friends. We are flying at 1 p.m. on Friday the 13th. Concerned.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2019 10:20:23 GMT -6
That 6z gfs solution didn’t last long lol.
12z gfs has rain in STL on Friday
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2019 10:24:28 GMT -6
That 6z gfs solution didn’t last long lol. 12z gfs has rain in STL on Friday So your saying I shouldn’t have bought that snowblower that can handle 30” of snow? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2019 10:48:14 GMT -6
At least it was exciting for a few minutes  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2019 10:56:50 GMT -6
Brutal cold showing up on the 12z gfs and 12z gem.
Sucks they aren’t bringing the snow.
This next 10 day period is very important, as a mild stretch is likely in store after that.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2019 10:57:22 GMT -6
At least it was exciting for a few minutes That's what she said. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2019 11:09:47 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2019 11:33:13 GMT -6
Brutal cold showing up on the 12z gfs and 12z gem. Sucks they aren’t bringing the snow. This next 10 day period is very important, as a mild stretch is likely in store after that. Can't we just skip to the torch? You know... Get it out of the way then let January and February be cold in a lump sum? |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Dec 5, 2019 12:06:14 GMT -6
At least it was exciting for a few minutes Hilarious reply! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 5, 2019 12:10:06 GMT -6
Next week has my interest...I'd say it's a good bet that the GFS is modifying the cA airmass too quickly.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 5, 2019 12:48:23 GMT -6
Next week has my interest...I'd say it's a good bet that the GFS is modifying the cA airmass too quickly. My memory is horrible. Is that a GFS bias, or a models-in-general bias? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2019 12:52:34 GMT -6
12z euro doesn’t look great
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2019 13:40:18 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 5, 2019 14:40:32 GMT -6
It does have a big trough forming late in the run. The EPS ensemble suggests the action will be east based though. Maybe the East Coast will get their first once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm of the year?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 5, 2019 14:52:56 GMT -6
Next week has my interest...I'd say it's a good bet that the GFS is modifying the cA airmass too quickly. My memory is horrible. Is that a GFS bias, or a models-in-general bias? More of a GFS bias, IME... |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 5, 2019 15:38:53 GMT -6
Doesn't look great as in only showing 15" of snow for Arkansas instead of 30"??, or doesn't look great as in...we screwed again?? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2019 15:44:19 GMT -6
Doesn't look great as in only showing 15" of snow for Arkansas instead of 30"??, or doesn't look great as in...we screwed again?? Euro never showed that, the 6z gfs did. Not great, as in some shots of cold with few opportunities for snow. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 5, 2019 16:01:12 GMT -6
Theres alot of trouble getting the southern stream to hook up with the cold for the mid ms valley. Pretty typical this time of year. As chris joked the other day, its rain to cold and dry, followed by warmer and rain. I think though, its good to see these southern spinups. Probs alone wld argue timing will work out on one or two of those systems. I still like the idea of a 1-2 inch event bw the 10th and 20th, and maybe another inch or so later in the month. I just hope when the cold air relaxes, its dry and pleasant.
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