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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 17, 2019 13:48:54 GMT -6
Huge Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is now forecasted to occur in early December. If it verifies, Christmas into early January could be wild around here depending on how the Polar Vortex splits. This also plays into the fact that the coming relax of the cold pattern will be relatively brief and likely prevent a full on torch for late November into early December.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 17, 2019 18:36:12 GMT -6
I know this isn’t what most people wanna hear but I wouldn’t mind some warm days this winter. I have a lot of brush clearing I’d like to get done while everything is dead. Of course that also means I don’t want a lot of rain lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2019 19:58:08 GMT -6
It's winter in St Louis, warm days are guaranteed.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 17, 2019 20:09:01 GMT -6
I'm with you on warm days. I mowed a lot of leaves in my backyard today. I cut some limbs down on my birch tree yesterday. I'd like to have a few shots at nice days to help "shape" that tree, plus some other trees in my back; and I typically try to do all that over Thanksgiving. Given latest model trends, Thanksgiving might be a soaker with a shot of cold in Kansas City which indicates colder air coming in toward months end. I'll keep my fingers crossed. I still have a full tree of leaves on my maple, so I will have a lot more raking to do, so I'm holding off on putting my lighted moose in the front yard and I know I'll be cleaning gutters again when I hang lights. I have to splice some wiring on that decoration anyway, which is going to be a pain, but I figure on doing that in the next few days. Kind of figuring on a book-end winter, with a long stretch of mild days in the middle, so hopefully I'm right.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 17, 2019 20:13:11 GMT -6
Huge Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is now forecasted to occur in early December. If it verifies, Christmas into early January could be wild around here depending on how the Polar Vortex splits. This also plays into the fact that the coming relax of the cold pattern will be relatively brief and likely prevent a full on torch for late November into early December. I don't call clear and 0 wild if it gets up to 55 in three days. Remember the pomp and circumstance last year about the SSW? I would rather have slightly below normal temperatures and snow, if it's going to be cold. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2019 21:51:06 GMT -6
Huge Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is now forecasted to occur in early December. If it verifies, Christmas into early January could be wild around here depending on how the Polar Vortex splits. This also plays into the fact that the coming relax of the cold pattern will be relatively brief and likely prevent a full on torch for late November into early December. I don't call clear and 0 wild if it gets up to 55 in three days. Remember the pomp and circumstance last year about the SSW? I would rather have slightly below normal temperatures and snow, if it's going to be cold. I remember the pomp and circumstance from last year... People talking about Strat warming and the impacts of the PV usually look beyond the immediate STL area. I think people like Dr. Cohen accurately and factually reported what was happening and the potential ramifications. My WC hit -50. There is a wealth of strong research on the topic and you will hear the topic brought up every winter now. Last year’s cold blast being brief in the STL does nothing to disprove the importance of this phenomenon |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2019 22:19:17 GMT -6
There's really no doubt SSW cause weather changes. The questions are where does the bulk of the cold go? Is it a vortex split or just a weakening? AMong other things. It seems that Europe tends to benefit more than we do, but not sure. It is certainly interesting to look at an ponder.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2019 11:48:47 GMT -6
Certainly not arguing the importance of this phenomenon. It does impact our weather. All ssw have different symptoms when it comes to our sensible wx. It also is not the sole reason we get cold spells. Id like to better understand the stages of ssw and the impact that those stages have on the weather patterns. From what ive seen, i might prefer a weakening of the polar vortex any day over a lobe breaking off and dumping all the cold. A reloadable and sustainable pattern of cold weather storminess seems to give us more opportunities for snow than an intense high pressure - the backside of that high will generally open up the gulf and send us warmth. In a nutshell, ill take 28 and snow over 0 and clear, especially with the forecast of 45 and rain in the forecast period. Lets see how this ssw plays out. It could be different than the recent events, but i suspect that landmass has an effect with how the majority of these behave (hence europe and asia get the sustained cold and storminess in most cases)
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2019 12:15:23 GMT -6
yawn
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 18, 2019 13:24:10 GMT -6
The big 3 all have a strong system impacting the middle of the country just before thanksgiving
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 18, 2019 13:40:14 GMT -6
The big 3 all have a strong system impacting the middle of the country just before thanksgiving Yep..if you're going west and northwest, it's gonna be snowy. Nice and wet here. |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 18, 2019 13:44:20 GMT -6
I'm still trying to understand the implications of SSW events myself. Here is what I've been able to piece together so far. SSW events are categorized as either displacements or splits. Displacements are when the stratospheric vortex gets pushed off to one side often getting partially deformed in the process as well. Splits are when the single stratospheric vortex splits off into two lows. Full splits tend to have a stronger influence on tropospheric patterns than displacements. Both tend to increase the probability of cold air intrusions east of the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately this doesn't necessarily equate to more snow though. It can take weeks for the SSW tropospheric influence to work itself out. 12Z ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement with the evolution of the 10mb heights through 240 hours. The SSW doesn't really ramp up on the GFS until after hour 240 though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2019 13:49:56 GMT -6
The big 3 all have a strong system impacting the middle of the country just before thanksgiving Yep..if you're going west and northwest, it's gonna be snowy. Nice and wet here. Might get some backlash snow showers and cooler temps in time for Turkey day though. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2019 14:42:00 GMT -6
Looks windy on Drinksgiving. The euro has a low pressure deepening as it traverses from souther ok to se iowa. Wondering abt the possibility of thunderstorms close to the vicinity in this setup....then of course colder air coming in. The change in temps as well as the winds would be the big story rt now on this system. With the progged nao going neg, i wld expect any warmup in the wake to either be tempered or shortlived as we potentially could slip into a more winterlike pattern around the first of december.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2019 14:54:04 GMT -6
Lots of interesting ensemble runs for that secondary low on Friday.
The ggem has been pretty consistent in showing a narrow band of accumulating snow in the region as well.
Something that could definitely sneak up on people
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 18, 2019 15:11:01 GMT -6
Lots of interesting ensemble runs for that secondary low on Friday. The ggem has been pretty consistent in showing a narrow band of accumulating snow in the region as well. Something that could definitely sneak up on people Euro ensembles showing the potential as well. They tend to be shaded further north than the GEFS members |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2019 15:21:09 GMT -6
Lots of interesting ensemble runs for that secondary low on Friday. The ggem has been pretty consistent in showing a narrow band of accumulating snow in the region as well. Something that could definitely sneak up on people Euro ensembles showing the potential as well. They tend to be shaded further north than the GEFS members It’s a true thread the needle situation with marginal temps. Still, I now lean towards somebody between STL and Chicago seeing accumulating snow. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2019 16:21:51 GMT -6
The cpc has highlighted a threat for frozen precipitation for basically the north half of mo 11/26 to 11/28. This does include kansas city and chicago.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 18, 2019 16:47:26 GMT -6
Looks to me like a big ol southern low next week without a lick of cold air to work with.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 18, 2019 17:46:15 GMT -6
So, if I'm planning to drive home Wednesday morning, would it be better to come home Tuesday night? Thank for your help.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 18, 2019 18:24:28 GMT -6
Stuff on radar must be Virga. Was under a yellow return and not a drop.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 18, 2019 19:18:41 GMT -6
Stuff on radar must be Virga. Was under a yellow return and not a drop. Had just enough here in VR to wet the concrete and that was all she wrote. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2019 22:01:28 GMT -6
00z gfs has caved to the euro and ggem.
It has snow for the northern viewing area Friday night.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2019 22:44:31 GMT -6
gfs has a looooooot a rain next week
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 19, 2019 8:43:09 GMT -6
euro has a 991 low in sw mo going to 988 just ne of st louis with a lot of rain, maybe ending as snow showers here, Blizzard to the nw..decent snow as close as central and ne MO. This is next Wednesday
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Post by weatherj on Nov 19, 2019 9:03:27 GMT -6
euro has a 991 low in sw mo going to 988 just ne of st louis with a lot of rain, maybe ending as snow showers here, Blizzard to the nw..decent snow as close as central and ne MO. This is next Wednesday I guess that isn't too atypical for this time of year. In fact, it's to be expected even in good winters. It would be neat to see snow fly three times this month already even if it doesn't add up to much, if any. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 19, 2019 9:43:51 GMT -6
euro has a 991 low in sw mo going to 988 just ne of st louis with a lot of rain, maybe ending as snow showers here, Blizzard to the nw..decent snow as close as central and ne MO. This is next Wednesday Strong signal on the euro ensembles for a low to form in the TX panhandle and move into the Great Lakes. Something to watch for sure, especially considering the travel going on |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 19, 2019 9:58:26 GMT -6
That Friday system needs to be watched. NAM and GFS are both really close to dropping some heavy wet snow on the metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2019 10:10:07 GMT -6
Definitely an active pattern developing into Thanksgiving week and there's cold air lurking close enough for snow chances depending on the timing and track of ejecting S stream energy. Friday evening into Saturday AM looks interesting with that secondary wave developing.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 834
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Post by modracer on Nov 19, 2019 10:43:51 GMT -6
Ditto I hope its mild umtil christmas. I would love a couple 60 amd 70 degree days to get all the yard clean ups done. Being in the snow removal industry. Snow just sucks for us. For the first time in my career I hope we do not get much snow. There is much more money in landscape work than snow removal. Lol.......profit margin in snow removal is the highest you’ll ever see compared to landscaping, mowing etc. |
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