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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 15, 2019 11:43:57 GMT -6
There is some potential next week at this time if the lead wave being modeled comes out quicker and weaker. This will bring cold enough air into place and allow the trailing wave to amplify. It’s a <5% type deal, but we have seen this trend as recently as Halloween. The prevalence of secondary development has been a trend going back to last fall. Another reason I think this winter could be special. Let’s just not waste 4 deformation zones on rain on December like last year...that was brutal. I think the already present cooler pattern may prevent that. |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 15, 2019 13:20:18 GMT -6
I hope its mild umtil christmas. I would love a couple 60 amd 70 degree days to get all the yard clean ups done. Being in the snow removal industry. Snow just sucks for us. For the first time in my career I hope we do not get much snow. There is much more money in landscape work than snow removal. Lol.......profit margin in snow removal is the highest you’ll ever see compared to landscaping, mowing etc. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 15, 2019 14:02:19 GMT -6
My boss charges 400 to 500 percent mark up in landscape and retaining walls. And irrigation he charges 2400 per zone. So that is why he hates snow. In conparison we inly get 150 per drive way and since he pays employees double time for each snow his profit is not what one would think. But to each his own. When I worked for myself I agree snow is very easy money if all you have to do is push and salt.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2019 14:14:50 GMT -6
My boss charges 400 to 500 percent mark up in landscape and retaining walls. And irrigation he charges 2400 per zone. So that is why he hates snow. In conparison we inly get 150 per drive way and since he pays employees double time for each snow his profit is not what one would think. But to each his own. When I worked for myself I agree snow is very easy money if all you have to do is push and salt. Does your boss run a shady fireworks stand too? Ouch |
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 15, 2019 14:19:25 GMT -6
My boss charges 400 to 500 percent mark up in landscape and retaining walls. And irrigation he charges 2400 per zone. So that is why he hates snow. In conparison we inly get 150 per drive way and since he pays employees double time for each snow his profit is not what one would think. But to each his own. When I worked for myself I agree snow is very easy money if all you have to do is push and salt. Does your boss run a shady fireworks stand too? Ouch Wow. Hope I don’t get your company to do a bid on my landscaping needs. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 15, 2019 14:21:44 GMT -6
I will admit Im not super proud of it and I always make sure I give the client as much extra as I can for free. I exampy a 95.00 blue spruce our cost is being charged to the cliamt.for 595.00. It is crazy. I never worked for a company that was so high. I could never afford it my self.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 15, 2019 14:29:36 GMT -6
I hope your boss doesn't read this forum...
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 15, 2019 14:36:15 GMT -6
He doesnt he could care less bout the weather. He had our guys mowing leaves un the snow on tuesday and wednesday lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2019 14:49:01 GMT -6
Knowing a few ppl in the bus....the issue with snow removal, is that its not sustainable for residential. If you do alot of commercial, then you can salt parking lots and charge commercial entities to be on standby. For residential, you only get business for big snows and climatologically that doesnt happen every year. Plus it has to be a headache with maintenance and storage of the equipment that may not be used as much some years. The grass always grows. Ppl always landscape. Snow may or may not happen. Ive seen business owners make business decisions based on their premonition of the upcoming winter. Thats when small businesses suffer, if theyre wrong.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2019 14:53:52 GMT -6
I will admit Im not super proud of it and I always make sure I give the client as much extra as I can for free. I exampy a 95.00 blue spruce our cost is being charged to the cliamt.for 595.00. It is crazy. I never worked for a company that was so high. I could never afford it my self. To be clear...95 is your cost to procure a tree. Theres paying wages, financing warranty work, keeping the lights on, marketing and sales plus all the risk. So the markup might be 500%, but the profit is much lower bc he pays you to plant the tree. What im saying, it might not be so bad. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2019 14:55:40 GMT -6
And i realize i may be over simplifying in my last 2 posts.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 15, 2019 16:31:23 GMT -6
Still having a bit of snow in the shaded areas 4/5 days later in November is fairly remarkable.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 15, 2019 17:24:23 GMT -6
I’ve seen a few model runs similar to the 18z GFS in regards to the potential system in the 7/8 day window. If it can get spun up like that then it should make enough cold air to drop winter precep somewhere. Chances are slim, but I think the system last November did something similar
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2019 21:24:17 GMT -6
I’ve seen a few model runs similar to the 18z GFS in regards to the potential system in the 7/8 day window. If it can get spun up like that then it should make enough cold air to drop winter precep somewhere. Chances are slim, but I think the system last November did something similar |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2019 22:10:11 GMT -6
GFS is cutter city.
Enough to pull in some CAPE and shear.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 15, 2019 22:16:21 GMT -6
GFS is cutter city. Enough to pull in some CAPE and shear. Now that's what we are used to. We know that storm track all too well haha. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 16, 2019 12:15:45 GMT -6
Storm on the Friday after Thanksgiving is showing some promise on the GFS
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Post by mchafin on Nov 16, 2019 12:43:25 GMT -6
Storm on the Friday after Thanksgiving is showing some promise on the GFS Just two more weeks... |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 16, 2019 14:09:26 GMT -6
I believe we should get snowy and more active after the new year. Until then lets enjoy some mild weather. I surely was not ready for it to be this cold this quick. And I am 6 weeks out from a new furnace getting put in
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2019 15:24:54 GMT -6
The large scale pattern does look more favorable as we head towards Thanksgiving and December. Euro has the NAO on a steady decline for the next week. A few other teleconnections look more favorable as well
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Post by weatherj on Nov 16, 2019 15:54:48 GMT -6
The large scale pattern does look more favorable as we head towards Thanksgiving and December. Euro has the NAO on a steady decline for the next week. A few other teleconnections look more favorable as well Larry Cosgrove alluded to this as well. A possible arctic intrusion around and after Thanksgiving with a couple potentially strong storm systems. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 16, 2019 16:43:39 GMT -6
The large scale pattern does look more favorable as we head towards Thanksgiving and December. Euro has the NAO on a steady decline for the next week. A few other teleconnections look more favorable as well Larry Cosgrove alluded to this as well. A possible arctic intrusion around and after Thanksgiving with a couple potentially strong storm systems. Teleconnection forecasts have gone from unfavorable to favorable over the last few days. Now showing negative NAO coupled with decently negative EPO. That combo often spells fun for us. |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 16, 2019 19:23:57 GMT -6
Larry Cosgrove alluded to this as well. A possible arctic intrusion around and after Thanksgiving with a couple potentially strong storm systems. Teleconnection forecasts have gone from unfavorable to favorable over the last few days. Now showing negative NAO coupled with decently negative EPO. That combo often spells fun for us. If we could get cold air for the storm on the 18z. It looks to be very near our 'wheelhouse'  . Timing on Wed. and Thurs. kind of blows, but I would still take it. Went out to the blind at noon today. Didn't see deer, but the field and forest was alive with wildlife. It is so peaceful out there. I didn't hear very many gunshots either. That surprised me. |
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Post by REB on Nov 17, 2019 8:47:55 GMT -6
My goodness, it’s quiet in here.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 17, 2019 9:42:17 GMT -6
That’s what happens when the weather slowdown.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 17, 2019 11:15:31 GMT -6
Gem has 3 to 6 inches of snow next weekend. Lock it in gem has performed the best
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 17, 2019 12:35:49 GMT -6
I will admit Im not super proud of it and I always make sure I give the client as much extra as I can for free. I exampy a 95.00 blue spruce our cost is being charged to the cliamt.for 595.00. It is crazy. I never worked for a company that was so high. I could never afford it my self. You really need to take some business classes and learn what it takes to run a successful landscaping business. I'm betting you would have a better understanding of why they charge what they charge. Until then, do your job and don't give freebies you aren't supposed to. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2019 13:03:05 GMT -6
Euro has a storm that would impact travel the day before Thanksgiving. Snow in KS, NW MO, IA and se NE, rain here, maybe severe wx in the south. 990ish low moving about right over us.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2019 13:04:18 GMT -6
Euro trying to ruin Thanksgiving.
There have definitely been some runs hinting at a wound up low in the region around Thanksgiving. Could be a washout, thunderstorms, or snow, but that week looks messy to me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 17, 2019 13:25:24 GMT -6
I’d keep an eye on that secondary system Friday night and Saturday. Somebody in the right place at the right time could see some accumulating snow
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. Timing on Wed. and Thurs. kind of blows, but I would still take it. 
