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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 19, 2019 11:48:08 GMT -6
euro has a 991 low in sw mo going to 988 just ne of st louis with a lot of rain, maybe ending as snow showers here, Blizzard to the nw..decent snow as close as central and ne MO. This is next Wednesday Sooo, drive back to the Lou on Tuesday evening? Crap. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 19, 2019 12:08:11 GMT -6
Unfortunately the EPO is now back to being forecast to go positive, which usually doesn't turn out well for us snow lovers. NAO looks to remain negative though. Sort of in no man's land when you average it all out.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 19, 2019 12:13:52 GMT -6
Unfortunately the EPO is now back to being forecast to go positive, which usually doesn't turn out well for us snow lovers. NAO looks to remain negative though. Sort of in no man's land when you average it all out. Looks like a flame thrower for North America with some severe chances (storms) will be the rule going into the first half of December but perhaps turning around during the holidays dependent on what the SSW event does and what whether we get a split or just a disruption. Needless to say a relax to the cold pattern is here or on the way just a matter of how bad the torch is and how long it lasts. The upcoming pattern will be active with numerous systems due to a direct Japan to US connection in the Jet Stream allowing storms to parade one after the other, so at least it's not likely to be high and dry and boring though I see too much rain becoming a possible problem if the pacific hose lasts for any real length of time. |
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Post by weatherj on Nov 19, 2019 12:15:24 GMT -6
Is it me..or does it seem like these forecast indicies change constantly every few days?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 19, 2019 12:44:51 GMT -6
They do change...and if one changes that leads the others to change.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 19, 2019 12:45:15 GMT -6
Is it me..or does it seem like these forecast indicies change constantly every few days? It is normal for them to flop back and forth but it looked like we were starting to catch on to a trend for a few days. Also I wouldn't call the upcoming pattern a "flamethrower" as of right now but there will likely be waves of some warmer days. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 19, 2019 12:47:05 GMT -6
Euro has a bomb cyclone over the middle of the country early next week. Full on blizzard from KC to Duluth with a severe outbreak in the warm sector, including our area
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 19, 2019 12:52:23 GMT -6
Is it me..or does it seem like these forecast indicies change constantly every few days? It is normal for them to flop back and forth but it looked like we were starting to catch on to a trend for a few days. Also I wouldn't call the upcoming pattern a "flamethrower" as of right now but there will likely be waves of some warmer days. There’s a lot of spread in the teleconnection ensemble means for some teleconnections. Overall things look fine going forward in regards to winter wx. Like BRTN mentioned, just need the southern energy and cold air to play nice |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 19, 2019 12:54:27 GMT -6
Euro has a bomb cyclone over the middle of the country early next week. Full on blizzard from KC to Duluth with a severe outbreak in the warm sector, including our area get your 'nader duds on |
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Post by weatherj on Nov 19, 2019 12:55:07 GMT -6
Thanks for the replies and explanations guys.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 19, 2019 14:50:47 GMT -6
Ya know i don't think we've had our second severe weather season this yr. Being that Summer hung on a but longer this yr. It wouldn't surprise me if we did get some storms next week. But it would be even better to get one of those setups that go from severe storms to a good thump of snow. 😉
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 19, 2019 17:26:20 GMT -6
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 19, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -6
Has anyone heard a Thanksgiving forecast yet? Just asking!
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 19, 2019 19:53:29 GMT -6
Has anyone heard a Thanksgiving forecast yet? Just asking! 100% chance of turkey, pumpkin pie, football and a nap! |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 19, 2019 21:37:28 GMT -6
Ha and Ha, ElburnDave! I have a bro in law coming from CO for it! He and I saw different long range forecasts so I thought I’d pose the question to the experts! When he needs to hear your response, I’ll pass it on! I however found your comment yummy sounding!
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 19, 2019 21:51:14 GMT -6
Ha and Ha, ElburnDave! I have a bro in law coming from CO for it! He and I saw different long range forecasts so I thought I’d pose the question to the experts! When he needs to hear your response, I’ll pass it on! I however found your comment yummy sounding! Looks like if he’s coming from CO using Wednesday as a travel day that he’s got a good chance of running into a pretty major snowstorm. It’s been modeled showing CO/KS getting a pretty good hit of snow for several days now. Atleast Turkey Day looks dry with highs in the upper 40s/Low50s. It’s still pretty far off but pretty decent model agreement for that timeframe. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2019 22:19:42 GMT -6
00z gfs obliterates Nebraska next Tuesday and Wednesday.
That storm is mean
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 19, 2019 22:24:38 GMT -6
00z gfs obliterates Nebraska next Tuesday and Wednesday. That storm is mean The storm gets so wrapped up it actually becomes warmer on the northern side and colder on the southern side  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2019 22:27:15 GMT -6
00z gfs obliterates Nebraska next Tuesday and Wednesday. That storm is mean The storm gets so wrapped up it actually becomes warmer on the northern side and colder on the southern side Pretty interesting to see another strong storm on its tail. Next week looks wild. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 20, 2019 0:41:50 GMT -6
Euro went from a bomb cyclone on the 12z run to a weak sheared out wave on the 00z run
Talk about a flip-flop
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 20, 2019 6:08:33 GMT -6
Ha and Ha, ElburnDave! I have a bro in law coming from CO for it! He and I saw different long range forecasts so I thought I’d pose the question to the experts! When he needs to hear your response, I’ll pass it on! I however found your comment yummy sounding! Looking to make the trip to STL on Wednesday evening and hoping for decent weather myself. Prayers for safe travels for your family and all of the ‘Corner’ family this holiday season! Happy Holidays. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 20, 2019 7:07:17 GMT -6
Fortunately he’s flying and coming this weekend BUT he wondered about driving from Festus to this side of Columbia (Williamsburg) on Thanksgiving Day for that dinner ElburnDave mentioned! And whether we had backup plans in case! Just knew the Corner would know!
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Post by weatherj on Nov 20, 2019 7:20:20 GMT -6
00z gfs obliterates Nebraska next Tuesday and Wednesday. That storm is mean The storm gets so wrapped up it actually becomes warmer on the northern side and colder on the southern side The Christmas Eve 2009 storm had a very similar structure I believe. I remember the arctic cold front actually swept in from the southwest because the storm was so wrapped up. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 20, 2019 8:06:26 GMT -6
^ I thought that was the storm of which we shall not speak of...^
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 20, 2019 8:36:44 GMT -6
00z gfs obliterates Nebraska next Tuesday and Wednesday. That storm is mean The storm gets so wrapped up it actually becomes warmer on the northern side and colder on the southern side This just shows you how wild the wx pattern is next week...at this point what we know now like others have said is that some areas in the middle part of the country will experience a potential blizzard, heavy rain (severe thunderstorms), and or high winds haha. At this point if you are traveling next Tues/Wed, I would pay attention because there could be bad delays and slow ETAs! |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 20, 2019 8:48:36 GMT -6
gfs has a looooooot a rain next week That always music to my ears when I'll have 20 cars parked in the yard for Thanksgiving. |
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Post by weatherj on Nov 20, 2019 9:03:20 GMT -6
^ I thought that was the storm of which we shall not speak of...^ Haha. That's the one 99 went on that super rant. I posted it last year. |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 20, 2019 9:40:18 GMT -6
^ I thought that was the storm of which we shall not speak of...^ Haha. That's the one 99 went on that super rant. I posted it last year. Merry Muddy Christmas? One of the classics. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2019 9:47:56 GMT -6
Ha and Ha, ElburnDave! I have a bro in law coming from CO for it! He and I saw different long range forecasts so I thought I’d pose the question to the experts! When he needs to hear your response, I’ll pass it on! I however found your comment yummy sounding! Looking to make the trip to STL on Wednesday evening and hoping for decent weather myself. Prayers for safe travels for your family and all of the ‘Corner’ family this holiday season! Happy Holidays. Do you want to carpool? Might be stuck in traffic together regardless |
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 20, 2019 11:14:10 GMT -6
Looking to make the trip to STL on Wednesday evening and hoping for decent weather myself. Prayers for safe travels for your family and all of the ‘Corner’ family this holiday season! Happy Holidays. Do you want to carpool? Might be stuck in traffic together regardless Sure, but I only have one seat to offer. Others will have to ride on top, lol. I've been lucky with traffic in recent years. Right now I'm more concerned about weather keeping me here. |
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