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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 6, 2018 19:47:02 GMT -6
Is this an off and on all night kind of thing?
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Post by Snowman99 on May 6, 2018 19:51:48 GMT -6
Heating of the day type stuff. It'll all dissipate as it heads southeast.
I had a 20mph breeze and 8 sprinkles. lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 6, 2018 20:52:16 GMT -6
This cell really intensified as it moved into town. Borderline severe criteria in Perryville right now with 40-50 mph winds and pea hail.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 6, 2018 22:48:49 GMT -6
Around 7:00 this evening we hit some pretty good hail on 64 /40 right before 270.... surprised this storm had no warning
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 7, 2018 6:41:02 GMT -6
Heating of the day type stuff. It'll all dissipate as it heads southeast. I had a 20mph breeze and 8 sprinkles. lol I don't think we even had the wind. Just some distant thunder and the 8 sprinkles - if that many |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 7, 2018 8:43:00 GMT -6
We're the bullseye for that slight chance of severe weather on Wednesday. That chance is still hanging in there. |
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Post by mosue56 on May 7, 2018 15:48:39 GMT -6
Why is it heating up already? It’s still just May!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 7, 2018 18:10:34 GMT -6
Strong hints of early season tropical activity in the Gulf or Caribbean as we head into the 21st-27th of the month, could have implications for St. Louis depending on ridge placement. Other then that the stage looks set for our first 'heatwave' of the season starting later this week into the next couple weeks with some brief breaks via backdoor fronts and finally a strong frontal passage towards the latter part of the month which could cause a cool start to June for a solid week or so before the blowtorch flames back up again though take what I say with a grain of salt as you all typically do, its just what I'm seeing right now over the next month or so.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 7, 2018 20:21:53 GMT -6
Severe weather threat is some what convoluted for Wednesday. There could be some hailers late Tuesday night... then it becomes questionable as to where and when new activity may try and develop along the advancing cold front. The timing and location of the front appears to favor areas east of I-55 for any redevelopment... and it may take from I-55 to I-57 before things ramp up Wednesday afternoon. It also may be a touch earlier unless the cold front slows down...which does not seem likely considering the origins of this system (more of a northwest flow hybrid).
I think the morning hail producers will be near/north of I-70...and the afternoon redevelopment will be along/east of I-55 into southern IL.
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Post by cozpregon on May 7, 2018 21:17:17 GMT -6
Best instability is to our north... but still some good CAPE in MO with virtually no cap. I could see it develop this far south & west.  |
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Post by cozpregon on May 7, 2018 21:18:21 GMT -6
I would put the metro in the western edge of slight risk.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 7, 2018 21:44:08 GMT -6
I would put the metro in the western edge of slight risk. I'd go with I-55 to the east....or maybe Hwy 67 is better since it is more closely aligned with the orientation of the front. |
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Post by cozpregon on May 7, 2018 21:59:29 GMT -6
That's a good hail sounding off the NAM 3k Wed afternoon  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 8, 2018 5:11:53 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 8, 2018 9:51:50 GMT -6
What once looked like an active pattern setting up is looking like less and less. Let's hope that isn't a sign of things to come this summer in terms of drought.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 8, 2018 11:50:38 GMT -6
What once looked like an active pattern setting up is looking like less and less. Let's hope that isn't a sign of things to come this summer in terms of drought. Pattern should turn towards the second half of the month, especially after the 18th, lots of activity slated for then. Have to get through through the taste of July pattern though first, also the ICON , yes I know it's lousy but it is the first models to show us at or close to 100 degrees this weekend into early next week, maybe for a real feel but actual temps aren't likely to be that high except maybe in the city itself. 88 to 95 degrees not out of the realm of possibility with high dewpoints. Could see our first heat headlines sooner then later. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 8, 2018 15:18:55 GMT -6
Ugh!!! Now most of us are completely out of the slight risk....i swear what is up with this location. Its bad enough we can't get a good snowstorm. Now severe weather is crummy too! Sigh....
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 8, 2018 16:05:39 GMT -6
Hahaha... its gorgeous out!
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 8, 2018 16:14:15 GMT -6
The elements for severe weather are definitely not lined up neatly. Bulk shear continues to fall off...only reaching about 20=25kts on the 18z model updates. That's not enough to support organized storms. The best thing going for it is the instability... so perhaps some severe multicells... isolated in nature...and mainly east of Hwy 67 into southern IL.
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Post by bdgwx on May 8, 2018 16:43:55 GMT -6
I'm sure you guys have noticed, but the parallel run of the GFS (FV3 core) is now running reliably. It can be found on Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather, and the ESRL website. I believe it is running with a 13 km homogenous resolution, but will be increased to 9 km when it goes live next year.
Also, HRRRv3 scheduled to go live next month. It will run out to 18 hours except every 6 it will run out to 36 hours.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2018 16:54:49 GMT -6
I'm sure you guys have noticed, but the parallel run of the GFS (FV3 core) is now running reliably. It can be found on Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather, and the ESRL website. I believe it is running with a 13 km homogenous resolution, but will be increased to 9 km when it goes live next year. Also, HRRRv3 scheduled to go live next month. It will run out to 18 hours except every 6 it will run out to 36 hours. Honestly...I can't keep track. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 8, 2018 17:26:23 GMT -6
I'm sure you guys have noticed, but the parallel run of the GFS (FV3 core) is now running reliably. It can be found on Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather, and the ESRL website. I believe it is running with a 13 km homogenous resolution, but will be increased to 9 km when it goes live next year. Also, HRRRv3 scheduled to go live next month. It will run out to 18 hours except every 6 it will run out to 36 hours. Honestly...I can't keep track. Agree. Can't tell the players even with a scorecard |
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Post by bdgwx on May 8, 2018 20:16:42 GMT -6
I'm sure you guys have noticed, but the parallel run of the GFS (FV3 core) is now running reliably. It can be found on Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather, and the ESRL website. I believe it is running with a 13 km homogenous resolution, but will be increased to 9 km when it goes live next year. Also, HRRRv3 scheduled to go live next month. It will run out to 18 hours except every 6 it will run out to 36 hours. Honestly...I can't keep track. I bet we can expect the same old skill. It'll nail the flooding rains no one wants 7+ days in advance, but it'll choke on snow within 24 hours. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 8, 2018 22:40:34 GMT -6
Nice meso low with that convection in north central Mo
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 8, 2018 23:17:21 GMT -6
It is entirely possible that much if not all of the viewing area skates through the next 24 hours dry
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 9, 2018 1:53:09 GMT -6
Is the entire temperature system for the NWS down? I can't pull up a temp for any location in the country on the weather.gov site. Been that way for 20 minutes now. Don't see any notices about it on the site.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 9, 2018 2:47:12 GMT -6
An hour later and it's back up. Must have been down for maintenance or an update
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Post by Snowman99 on May 9, 2018 3:42:53 GMT -6
A flash of lightning and rumble of thunder.Might see a brief t-shower. More solid line the ne and sw, lol.
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Post by bear1 on May 9, 2018 3:49:19 GMT -6
I'm right under that band right now & there is quite a bit of bright lightening, rain isn't all that heavy though.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 9, 2018 4:10:54 GMT -6
Line seems to be filling in as it approaches the city
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