|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 30, 2018 20:03:41 GMT -6
All models I've seen fizzle it out to basically nothing. Wonder if they will end up being right on this one... Ya this is a tough call. Like Chris mentioned, the models have a surprising amount of mixed layer Cape(see below) in the area in the morning. That should sustain even an outflow dominant MCS. Shear isnt great but its not zero either. I think we might see a decent MCS move through in the early morning then more storms firing later in the afternoon tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 30, 2018 20:08:58 GMT -6
I really think the models kill the MCS too quickly tomorrow morning. Once the LLJ kicks in overnight... the reservoir will get tapped and there is little reason for the storms to diminish that quickly with low level convergence along the outflow more than enough to maintain storm threat well into the day.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on May 30, 2018 20:15:01 GMT -6
where would you expect initiation
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 30, 2018 20:30:15 GMT -6
Saturday is the Shrine Circus in Belleville. I will be there all day. Chris, are these storms going to be typical late afternoon time frame? I wonder if we will have to cancel the afternoon show. I'll be watching closely... thanks for any and all info!
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on May 30, 2018 20:32:17 GMT -6
There's a lot of dynamics in play both tomorrow morning and afternoon. Would think an enhanced risk pretty close to Chris' map.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 30, 2018 20:33:22 GMT -6
where would you expect initiation Already going in the OK panhandle. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 30, 2018 20:34:26 GMT -6
I really think the models kill the MCS too quickly tomorrow morning. Once the LLJ kicks in overnight... the reservoir will get tapped and there is little reason for the storms to diminish that quickly with low level convergence along the outflow more than enough to maintain storm threat well into the day. I believe this is a common occurrence with convection allowing models especially; too slow and too quick to fade sometimes. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 30, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
It would also argue for a somewhat further south placement of redevelopment...which 00z runs are pulling north closer to I-70 than before. My guess is something closer to I-44 is more likely for redevelopment...if not a bit further south.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 30, 2018 21:06:08 GMT -6
NAM3km coming in with somewhat more robust bulk shear tomorrow afternoon along outflow...which...if true...elevates the tornado threat a bit.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 30, 2018 21:06:50 GMT -6
While not a fan of the enhanced risk... tomorrow would be the kind of day I would associate with enhanced risk potential as defined by SPC.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on May 30, 2018 21:06:54 GMT -6
21Z SREF shifted a hair north for tomorrow as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 30, 2018 21:19:06 GMT -6
Maybe time for a fresh thread considering we're going into June and there's a couple of severe weather days ahead?
|
|
