Forecasting Heavy Snow

[Chris Higgins]

Without a doubt, forecasting heavy snow is one of the most challenging and one of the most important things we do. It is also unquestionably the most high visibility forecast we make. Miss the location of the heavy snow band by even 10 miles and you may end up forecasting 10" for a place that gets 2" or vice versa. The GOLD STANDARD for forecasting the location of the heavy snow band is the Gore-Younkin-Brown (GYB) technique. Do not be suckered into following model QPF placement as the models are more often than not WRONG! If you use GYB correctly, I guarantee it will get you much closer than any model QPF will. It has saved me countless times. But it MUST be applied correctly. Not every event is a good candidate using GYB.

Here is an excellent link with the basics of the GYB. Note, this only helps forecast the LOCATION of the band... not the amount!

GOREE YOUNKIN BROWN TECHNIQUE

[BRTNWXMAN]

Here is a great roundup of various snowfall forecasting techniques.  Some of them are a bit outdated or require access to AWIPS/cross section analysis...but some of these work quite well.