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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 9, 2024 10:46:10 GMT -6
Been under a persistent subsidence band this morning with only a couple tenths so far. Looks like the rain shield is slowly filling and bulging N/NW. You should get dumped on next few hours as it pivots. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 9, 2024 11:00:38 GMT -6
Cards game canceled.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2024 11:01:57 GMT -6
Been under a persistent subsidence band this morning with only a couple tenths so far. Looks like the rain shield is slowly filling and bulging N/NW. You should get dumped on next few hours as it pivots. It's coming down good now...finally in the jackpot zone for once! Looks like 1"/hr+ rainfall rates setting up across the Metro for the next several hours. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2024 11:21:13 GMT -6
Models have Beryl's remnant low deepening into this evening as it comes underneath the entrance region of the jetstreak across the lakes...Coz is probably right about the winds picking up as it passes which could lead to some uprooted trees and downed limbs and power lines.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 9, 2024 11:38:07 GMT -6
It might be interesting to know that ECMWF-AIFS and NOAA-GraphCast are AI at their cores. There are no laws of physics or primitive equations programmed in them like the traditional models (caveat). They are simply given 2 states of the atmosphere (6 hours ago + now) and run that through a graph neural network and machine learning algorithms. They produce their forecasts (10+ day lead time) in about 1 minute. And they do so with skill that surpasses traditional models in almost every category. They share little if any underlying technology with traditional models in terms of forecasting. The only minor exception to that is that the initial states are still formed using traditional models. They aren't just an evolutionary advancement in weather prediction. They are a revolutionary advancement. The weather forecasting industry is going through a paradigm shift at light speed. Like many of you it often takes a significant event in my own backyard to get me to take notice. Beryl is that event for me. I'm certainly not going to jump ship on traditional models just yet, but I will put more weight on those AI models in the future. deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ |
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Post by dschreib on Jul 9, 2024 12:21:22 GMT -6
Guess I’ll have to skip out tomorrow afternoon now. Good way to spend my last day at work before vacation! |
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Post by dschreib on Jul 9, 2024 12:22:54 GMT -6
You should get dumped on next few hours as it pivots. It's coming down good now...finally in the jackpot zone for once! Looks like 1"/hr+ rainfall rates setting up across the Metro for the next several hours. Marissa about to get dryslotted and you’re under a death band. Just like old times! |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 9, 2024 12:43:03 GMT -6
I'm posting mainly for posterity. The double axis of precipitation is an interesting feature. It was being shown by mesoscale models last night; just maybe not as delineated as it is actually panning out.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2024 12:46:22 GMT -6
I'm posting mainly for posterity. The double axis of precipitation is an interesting feature. It was being shown by mesoscale models last night; just maybe not as delineated as it is actually panning out. Classic double-frontogenetic banded structure with a subsidence zone inbetween. What I'd give to have this setup with the column below 0*C in about 6 months... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2024 12:54:00 GMT -6
Wind gusts are starting to pick up out here and approaching 1" storm total with plenty more to come. It's a drought buster IMBY!
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 9, 2024 13:29:20 GMT -6
The 0051 reading at Lambert was 73.9 which was also recorded a few times this morning.
The record low high for today is 73 set in 1892
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 9, 2024 13:46:55 GMT -6
Models have Beryl's remnant low deepening into this evening as it comes underneath the entrance region of the jetstreak across the lakes...Coz is probably right about the winds picking up as it passes which could lead to some uprooted trees and downed limbs and power lines. Hopefully not on houses...or a railroad track again. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 9, 2024 13:50:09 GMT -6
It might be interesting to know that ECMWF-AIFS and NOAA-GraphCast are AI at their cores. There are no laws of physics or primitive equations programmed in them like the traditional models (caveat). They are simply given 2 states of the atmosphere (6 hours ago + now) and run that through a graph neural network and machine learning algorithms. They produce their forecasts (10+ day lead time) in about 1 minute. And they do so with skill that surpasses traditional models in almost every category. They share little if any underlying technology with traditional models in terms of forecasting. The only minor exception to that is that the initial states are still formed using traditional models. They aren't just an evolutionary advancement in weather prediction. They are a revolutionary advancement. The weather forecasting industry is going through a paradigm shift at light speed. Like many of you it often takes a significant event in my own backyard to get me to take notice. Beryl is that event for me. I'm certainly not going to jump ship on traditional models just yet, but I will put more weight on those AI models in the future. deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/Really curious what that does for snow forecasts in the winter. Hopefully not as many false alarms for big snows only to have Lucy pull the football. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2024 13:56:52 GMT -6
Models have Beryl's remnant low deepening into this evening as it comes underneath the entrance region of the jetstreak across the lakes...Coz is probably right about the winds picking up as it passes which could lead to some uprooted trees and downed limbs and power lines. Hopefully not on houses...or a railroad track again. The Joe Page bridge at Hardin was closed down yesterday due to a fallen tree on it. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 9, 2024 14:20:35 GMT -6
1.19". I was expecting a little more.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 9, 2024 14:20:58 GMT -6
2.15" today. 10.50" for the month. Arnold.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 9, 2024 15:25:05 GMT -6
PDS just W of Evansville
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 9, 2024 15:28:31 GMT -6
That is as defined as it gets. Wow
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 9, 2024 15:31:31 GMT -6
Luke hatton has it on live stream
Huge wedge
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Post by REB on Jul 9, 2024 15:35:38 GMT -6
1.19". I was expecting a little more. 1.96” and counting |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 9, 2024 15:43:58 GMT -6
1.19". I was expecting a little more. 2.10 day 2.96 2 day total thus far 9.61 for the month |
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Post by bororug on Jul 9, 2024 15:44:13 GMT -6
2.39” in the rain gauge today.
2.74” storm total in Festus, MO.
5.01” for the month.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 9, 2024 15:53:28 GMT -6
Just hit 2.00 even at home. The worst of the rain is quickly pushing northeast. Easy to see the fading influence of the jet dynamics with the quick retreat of the rain shield to the north.
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jul 9, 2024 16:10:30 GMT -6
Deer Creek is HIGH by McCalisters in Maplewood/Shrewsbury
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Post by tedrick65 on Jul 9, 2024 16:22:18 GMT -6
Pretty much stopped in High Ridge.
3.24"/Day
5.25"/2-Day
11.02"/July
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 9, 2024 16:41:46 GMT -6
1.19". I was expecting a little more. 1.96” and counting 2.18" now. And still drizzling. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 9, 2024 17:30:51 GMT -6
Anybody hear of any road flooding in metro east? We haven't seen many reports.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 9, 2024 17:49:39 GMT -6
Between yesterday and today my rain gauge is showing about 2.75 total.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 9, 2024 17:54:22 GMT -6
Anybody hear of any road flooding in metro east? We haven't seen many reports. A couple trees fell. Ofallon on troy ofallon Rd blocking Rd. Same on 159 s of Smithton (report from phil). I'm sure the usual areas are underwater like state st at 255 in estl. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 9, 2024 17:55:13 GMT -6
If you want something amazing to look at in model fantasy world... go to late next week. That is one fine looking Canadian air mass! Brrrrr... 40s at night in some outlying areas? Probably not... but it's nice to think about  |
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