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Post by jmg378s on May 7, 2024 17:22:59 GMT -6
I assume you mean Barnsdall OK? Yes the damage looks extreme. We've seen several instances over the years where homes completely swept are only assigned an EF3 rating due to poor construction (e.g. no/improper anchoring) so you never know until the surveyors assess not only the damage, but the construction too. Yes sorry, thanks for pointing it out. Corrected on original post. Tulsa NWS already confirming preliminary EF4. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 7, 2024 17:53:08 GMT -6
Is anyone able to view this morning's radar and tell me if there is any evidence of a spin-up at 38.392406, -90.041064? There was a roof blown off a shed and deposited to the north of its location. Line was in that area around 5am, but I didn't see anything on radar. Sometimes QLCS tornados spin up and down very quickly so it's possible something happened between velocity scans. |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on May 7, 2024 17:58:10 GMT -6
Is anyone able to view this morning's radar and tell me if there is any evidence of a spin-up at 38.392406, -90.041064? There was a roof blown off a shed and deposited to the north of its location. Line was in that area around 5am, but I didn't see anything on radar. Sometimes QLCS tornados spin up and down very quickly so it's possible something happened between velocity scans. Thank you, I appreciate it! |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 7, 2024 18:17:10 GMT -6
I’ve been on Pivotal a lot lately but I am still learning to read a lot of the models. Same here! There is a lot to take in. Hanging around here helped me to pick up a lot in analyzing soundings and model solutions I definitely have picked up some things on here but have a lot to learn still. |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 7, 2024 18:21:13 GMT -6
As of now it looks like primary concern for my area tomorrow is large hail but still a little too close for comfort to the 10% hatched area for tornadoes. Timing looks like storms will be late morning or early afternoon which always makes me nervous as a teacher.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on May 7, 2024 19:17:07 GMT -6
Hello, do we have an updated timeline out yet for the Metro area. Deciding on weather to start work at the office and then WFH before it gets bad? Is this a 2 wave event?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 7, 2024 19:25:52 GMT -6
Hello, do we have an updated timeline out yet for the Metro area. Deciding on weather to start work at the office and then WFH before it gets bad? Is this a 2 wave event? Here is the latest information package from the NWS that includes timing info www.weather.gov/media/lsx/DssPacket.pdf |
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Post by bdgwx on May 7, 2024 19:29:57 GMT -6
Mid-morning and throughout the day really. Also, I would not assume this is a 1 or even 2 wave event. The possibility exists that multiple storms could roll through especially for those in the southern half of the LSX area.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on May 7, 2024 19:31:06 GMT -6
Thanks for the update.
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Post by bdgwx on May 7, 2024 19:36:08 GMT -6
It's just one model run but the 0Z HRRR looks spicy in a line from Rolla to Festus. Verbatim you could argue it warrants a moderate risk south of STL. Of course, it's common to see robust indicators from individual CAMs even though the consensus from the others is a bit more tame.
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Post by bdgwx on May 7, 2024 19:43:13 GMT -6
21Z SREF has a 60 contour for tornado ingredients southeast of I-44. A 60 contour is usually good for 10% tornado outlook so that argues for keeping the outlook at enhanced. However, with the added hail risk and shear coverage of storms you could make an argument for an upgrade to moderate down there.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 7, 2024 19:54:50 GMT -6
Is anyone able to view this morning's radar and tell me if there is any evidence of a spin-up at 38.392406, -90.041064? There was a roof blown off a shed and deposited to the north of its location. Line was in that area around 5am, but I didn't see anything on radar. Sometimes QLCS tornados spin up and down very quickly so it's possible something happened between velocity scans. And lower intensity and short lived tornadoes wouldn't throw up a debris ball. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 7, 2024 20:12:28 GMT -6
NAM continues to show the warm front draping itself over 70 tomorrow and storms riding along the boundary
That would be about the worst case scenario
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Post by Snowman99 on May 7, 2024 20:33:27 GMT -6
Some other models are now showing what the hrrr has been
.a midday round of stuff then not much to write home about after that. Could be a meh day.
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Post by Jeffmw on May 7, 2024 21:30:30 GMT -6
Some other models are now showing what the hrrr has been .a midday round of stuff then not much to write home about after that. Could be a meh day. I won’t mind that. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 7, 2024 22:16:01 GMT -6
A few thoughts concerning tomorrow
- Potential for storms to form at nose of LLJ in W/SW MO early tomorrow morning may limit the northward advance of the warm front as they move into our area (and we can't rule out the possibility that this just matures into a large sprawling one and done severe MCS either)
- Somewhere along or south of I-70 appears to be the most likely stall position of the warm front
- Dewpoints in the low 70s located in E AR and steep lapse rates over the high plains will advect into our area resulting in ~3000 j/kg CAPE
- Strong W/SW mid-level jet already in place with upstream jet max approaching will yield 50-60kts of deep layer shear easily supporting organized severe storms (including supercells)
- Locale of warm front, completely uncapped warm sector, and diffluent mid-level flow aloft should yield a lot of convection tomorrow
- Storm modes could be messy with clusters, line segments, or discrete cells all possible
- Weakness in anvil-level flow could produce more HP supercell structures for storms that remain discrete
- Helicity may be maximized up near the warm front, but further south high 3km CAPE approaching 200 j/kg and dewpoint depressions < 10 can make up for some lower SRH with regards to tornadogenesis
- If storms persist into the evening LLJ will ramp up enhancing shear and tornadogensis, especially if storms remain or continue to develop discrete
- I would not be surprised to see an SPC moderate risk in the vicinity of the southern 1/3 of our forecast area extending from say Ft. Leonard Wood thru S IL (where I think combination of environment + likelihood/coverage of storms overlap best) - this would be consistent with latest HREF SPC calibrated risk guidance
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 7, 2024 22:36:49 GMT -6
Ya, I bet we see a Moderate issued for SE MO at 1am
HREF really likes that area for maximized severe probabilities
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 7, 2024 22:45:04 GMT -6
I've been cherry picking some HRRR soundings this evening. Along and south of hwy 70 looks pretty nasty! Some mean hodographs showing up. Especially around 1 pm and after. Near Rolla and Farmington.
Yikes
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 7, 2024 22:46:16 GMT -6
Very Large hail too.
2-3+ inches shown on some.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 8, 2024 0:09:47 GMT -6
There she blows. Hail and wind driven MDT  |
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sgdragons
Wishcaster
Posts: 145
Member is Online
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Post by sgdragons on May 8, 2024 4:08:47 GMT -6
Some other models are now showing what the hrrr has been .a midday round of stuff then not much to write home about after that. Could be a meh day. That would be fantastic. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on May 8, 2024 5:21:10 GMT -6
I just woke up this morning and our electricity is out. It’s like the power just saw the forecast and said, “Forget it. I’m not going to even bother today.” 😂
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on May 8, 2024 5:37:47 GMT -6
Is the tornado potential maximized in the MDT risk, or is the warm front expected to retreat a bit further north of the MDT today?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 8, 2024 5:41:50 GMT -6
Is the tornado potential maximized in the MDT risk, or is the warm front expected to retreat a bit further north of the MDT today? The moderate is for Hail and Wind. The tornado threat is broader in the whole enhanced area at 10%. Let me edit this to say, not the entire enhanced risk area but more broadly to include the warm front placement.
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Post by bdgwx on May 8, 2024 5:52:01 GMT -6
The storms along the KS/MO border are more on the northerly side of expectations. It's possible that MCS fills in on the south side but if not that might be an indication that the warm front really is going to lift further north and possibly along I-70 or even north of that like what some models are showing later today.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 8, 2024 6:03:48 GMT -6
I do not like the setup today, not at all. HRRR shows nasty cells after noonish, then a second round behind that lead batch.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 8, 2024 6:19:20 GMT -6
The current storms are 80 to 100 miles north of where the latest HRRR has them. That's not a good sign at all. However, Td's have dropped of quite a bit over eastern MO and I'm not sure we have enough time to recover this far north. The greatest risk may hold off until storms reach influx of moisture pulling north around the eastern flank of the Ozark Palteau.
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Post by REB on May 8, 2024 6:28:17 GMT -6
Plan B is in effect at my place. Cancelled the appointment in Ballwin. Work out at the gym back on.
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Post by bdgwx on May 8, 2024 6:31:54 GMT -6
That MCS is even north of what the NAM was showing and I thought that was pretty far north already.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 8, 2024 7:04:22 GMT -6
HRRR looks like it’s out to lunch right now
It is way to far south with convection to our west compared to real world obs
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