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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 13:01:04 GMT -6
Meso Disco down in SW MO:
MD #0977: Watch possible
×
Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261836Z - 262100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may
develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO
tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region
is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of
moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate
plume over eastern OK.
Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the
surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both
instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large
hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed
east into a more favorable low-level shear environment.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 13:42:42 GMT -6
Uh oh
Mesoscale Discussion 0980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Areas affected...from parts of southern and southeast Missouri into far northeast Arkansas...southern Illinois...and across the Missouri Bootheel and surrounding areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 261938Z - 262215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A strong tornado situation appears to be developing for later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition, very large hail and eventual significant damaging winds may develop across the region.
DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows heating and rapid air mass recovery across southeast MO, where boundary layer clouds are developing, and, satellite derived PWAT indicates ample moisture. This is ahead of a cold front which is currently northwest of St. Louis and extends into southeast KS near a weak low. Surface observations show a very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints spreading north out of AR, MS, and western TN as well, just south of the old/dissipating outflow boundary.
A special 18Z LZK sounding shows strong shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and ample moisture. A capping inversion exits just above 850 mb, however, much less capping exists farther north into MO where lift will be increasing ahead of the surface trough. Forecast soundings across this region strong favor tornadic supercells as well, along with very large hail. Depending on storm mode later this evening, widespread damaging winds could also materialize.
As such, the 20Z outlook will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK for the developing situation.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024
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Post by scmhack on May 26, 2024 13:45:11 GMT -6
Uh oh Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...from parts of southern and southeast Missouri into far northeast Arkansas...southern Illinois...and across the Missouri Bootheel and surrounding areas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261938Z - 262215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A strong tornado situation appears to be developing for later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition, very large hail and eventual significant damaging winds may develop across the region. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows heating and rapid air mass recovery across southeast MO, where boundary layer clouds are developing, and, satellite derived PWAT indicates ample moisture. This is ahead of a cold front which is currently northwest of St. Louis and extends into southeast KS near a weak low. Surface observations show a very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints spreading north out of AR, MS, and western TN as well, just south of the old/dissipating outflow boundary. A special 18Z LZK sounding shows strong shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and ample moisture. A capping inversion exits just above 850 mb, however, much less capping exists farther north into MO where lift will be increasing ahead of the surface trough. Forecast soundings across this region strong favor tornadic supercells as well, along with very large hail. Depending on storm mode later this evening, widespread damaging winds could also materialize. As such, the 20Z outlook will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK for the developing situation. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 Thats about as strongly worded as it gets around here |
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Post by dschreib on May 26, 2024 13:46:20 GMT -6
And that's almost exactly where they had the hatched area for tornadoes earlier before they prematurely yanked it off the table.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 13:49:16 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 13:53:48 GMT -6
That means the enhanced area will be moved too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 14:00:16 GMT -6
I was wrong...rapid destabilization underway with a Td of 69* here currently. Strong theta-E advection is occuring ahead of the frontal wave.
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Post by scmhack on May 26, 2024 14:04:00 GMT -6
I was wrong...rapid destabilization underway with a Td of 69* here currently. Strong theta-E advection is occuring ahead of the frontal wave. I wanted you to be right |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 14:07:33 GMT -6
The storms will go severe fast.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 26, 2024 14:15:56 GMT -6
It feels like this upgrade and watch are taking forever.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 14:19:52 GMT -6
It feels like this upgrade and watch are taking forever. I was thinking the same thing. Maybe they to get the wording right? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 14:20:50 GMT -6
It feels like this upgrade and watch are taking forever. Several warnings already and no watch...I wonder about the SPC sometimes |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on May 26, 2024 14:22:03 GMT -6
Bad scenario unfolding with all the campers and people floating the rivers today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 14:22:33 GMT -6
Very good call on not pulling the risks today, Chris.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 14:24:05 GMT -6
The cell north on Linn needs watching for hail.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 14:27:35 GMT -6
Took awhile but the MDT is out  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 14:28:47 GMT -6
That is pretty ominous from him.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 14:29:36 GMT -6
All hazards moderate as well
15%# TOR
45%# Wind
45%# Hail
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on May 26, 2024 14:30:59 GMT -6
Outlook upgrade is out. 10 percent hatched tornado risk for Metro, 15 percent for south of metro. Have to think that tornado watch could be PDS when it comes along with the wording in the Meso discussion.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 14:31:19 GMT -6
Is this the first Tornado/Wind driven moderate risk this season?
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Post by MakeitRain on May 26, 2024 14:32:37 GMT -6
Bust in the opposite direction. Can’t say we didn’t see it coming.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on May 26, 2024 14:32:39 GMT -6
Tornado watch posted for southwest MO. Nothing yet for the viewing area.
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Post by let it snow11 on May 26, 2024 14:35:24 GMT -6
Took awhile but the MDT is out Oh wow.... ☹️ |
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on May 26, 2024 14:38:51 GMT -6
The epitome of dropping the ball by the SPC.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 14:40:29 GMT -6
They didnt drop the ball, not at all. All indications this morning was that the atmosphere was scrubbed for a good portion of the area. ThetaE advection is a lot stronger than thought it would be.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 26, 2024 14:41:45 GMT -6
well, that escalated quickly.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on May 26, 2024 14:43:21 GMT -6
They didnt drop the ball, not at all. All indications this morning was that the atmosphere was scrubbed for a good portion of the area. ThetaE advection is a lot stronger than thought it would be. Respectfully, it's a bad look. Now we have multiple warnings flying off without a Watch Box. It should've been clear a couple hours ago that the atmosphere was recovering fast. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 26, 2024 14:43:50 GMT -6
They didnt drop the ball, not at all. All indications this morning was that the atmosphere was scrubbed for a good portion of the area. ThetaE advection is a lot stronger than thought it would be. I mean, they were wrong. That is okay to say. They should try to learn from this one. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 26, 2024 14:43:52 GMT -6
They didnt drop the ball, not at all. All indications this morning was that the atmosphere was scrubbed for a good portion of the area. ThetaE advection is a lot stronger than thought it would be. They were a little lax ….. Chris was on top of this all morning |
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Post by jmg378s on May 26, 2024 14:45:49 GMT -6
Convective outlook jumped up 2 categories for metro ST. Louis. Multiple warnings out west and no watch?
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