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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 11, 2024 23:24:41 GMT -6
Now that Football is over. Question Do we want the Cardinals to come out hard and fast rack up the wins or build things up. April wins count the same as September… Lots of positive regression with offensive sequencing and bullpen leverage is coming. I was thinking about the whole burn out to soon |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 23:28:22 GMT -6
Excuse my crudeness but there is a term we use in the business called "shining a poop" (we use a slightly more crass word...but you get the idea). This map is my best effort to shine the poop.. put lipstick on a pig... or whatever way you chose to describe the recalibration of a forecast that is clearing going to bust. In my 32 years of forecasting, this is one of the biggest disappearing acts I can remember so close to an event. But here's the problem... while there is no denying the forecast has gone off the rails, the NAM and some of the mescale/CAMS still hint at the presence of a mesoscale band attempting to pull together near I-44 from Rolla up to Union. The NAM is by far the most robust now with this feature in this area. It does have some support based on existing weather in OK and southwest Missouri... which is why I cannot completely toss it aside. The only thing worse than a busted forecast... is having the replacement forecast bust too by pulling the snow out entirely... and then all the sudden "surprise" the band develops afterall. To be clear... I'm not talking about a sudden reappearance of the band as it was forecast earlier. That is not in the cards. However, there is enough evidence still in the modeling that something could come together along I-44. And I’m not comfortable completely pulling all snow from the forecast in that area at this time. So, I’m going to massage in that thumb of “Dusting to 1 Possible” from Franklin County, southwest into Phelps County. I readily admit, that is a super low confidence forecast… but it is my effort to recognize the remaining signals from some of the guidance. It's also possible that region sees nothing or nearly nothing at all. So here you go...  |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 11, 2024 23:31:05 GMT -6
This is one of the more challenging recalibrations of a forecast I can remember. I haven't had to do one like this in quite some time...which is good. But like everything in forecasting there is an art to it... but this time it is more challenging than most. This afternoon I had my daughter ask me what the weather was going to do tomorrow. This was after my son-in-law (in Park Hills) said on Friday afternoon that his phone (App) had a forecast of 3-6", then it was 1" or less. I told my son-in-law on Friday that 'I' (the collective forecasts on here) didn't see anything that pointed to a 3-6" storm. I said a very narrow meso-band looks to develop but 'exactly' where that occurs can't be forecast yet. Then after the uptick on Saturday of possible north trends I got sucked back in to this 'addicting drug' called weather. Then the model runs last night night trended south, alot. When my daughter asked me that today I threw my hands up saying I really don't know. Now it looks to go further south and that she 'SHOULD' be OK driving north to SoCounty. In the end, if this does head south, the local Meteorologists are going to be the scapegoats again. I try not to get sucked into Weather Apps and I tell my family to get rid of them and stick with the NWS. My local forecast from the NWS went from little to no accumulation, to 2-4" accumulation, to 1" accumulation, to less than an 1" all in a relatively short amount of time. I can't pinpoint the actual time because I don't know where to look for "Previous Forecast" like I can with the "Forecast Discussion". I'm quite sure some of this 'rancor' has to do with the lack of winter weather around here lately. This is truly very frustrating. Edit: I just seen your update, I'm sure you get frustrated too. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2024 23:49:32 GMT -6
The euro The last 24 hours says it all.
A 200 mile SOuthward shift.
We have had similar shifts like this. But usually those are with 48 hours lead time.
However honestly unless I'm really off. I don't recall much support for the euro solution ever???
It seemed to me even a couple days ago the consensus was South.
Yesterday we had one NAM run iirc look somewhat like the euro.
But that was it iirc.
This is in reference to the euros robust solution.
Not Mr. Higgins forecast. Which was always further South.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 23:58:34 GMT -6
The euro The last 24 hours says it all. A 200 mile SOuthward shift. We have had similar shifts like this. But usually those are with 48 hours lead time. However honestly unless I'm really off. I don't recall much support for the euro solution ever??? It seemed to me even a couple days ago the consensus was South. Yesterday we had one NAM run iirc look somewhat like the euro. But that was it iirc. This is in reference to the euros robust solution. Not Mr. Higgins forecast. Which was always further South. But not far enough south...lol. |
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sgdragons
Wishcaster
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 12, 2024 5:01:39 GMT -6
Time to start planning those early spring gardens.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2024 5:29:41 GMT -6
Time to start planning those early spring gardens. I planted tomato and pepper seeds yesterday. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2024 5:32:19 GMT -6
The euro The last 24 hours says it all. A 200 mile SOuthward shift. We have had similar shifts like this. But usually those are with 48 hours lead time. However honestly unless I'm really off. I don't recall much support for the euro solution ever??? It seemed to me even a couple days ago the consensus was South. Yesterday we had one NAM run iirc look somewhat like the euro. But that was it iirc. This is in reference to the euros robust solution. Not Mr. Higgins forecast. Which was always further South. The EC and NAM were lock step showing snow into the metro for several runs and the GFS wasn't far off. The Ukie and GEM were the consistent S outliers...and look to score the coup. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Feb 12, 2024 8:44:23 GMT -6
Here is a question. I need to lay down some grass seed. When should I consider doing it?
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 12, 2024 8:50:03 GMT -6
Here is a question. I need to lay down some grass seed. When should I consider doing it? Anytime |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2024 8:56:12 GMT -6
Here is a question. I need to lay down some grass seed. When should I consider doing it? Whenever but if you are putting down pre emergent make sure to check soil temps. Want them right around 50. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 12, 2024 9:06:59 GMT -6
Chris, if there's a silver lining to the turd-polishing, it's that most people are done with winter anyway. If this was December or January, it would be a harder sell.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 12, 2024 9:07:31 GMT -6
Here is a question. I need to lay down some grass seed. When should I consider doing it? Whenever but if you are putting down pre emergent make sure to check soil temps. Want them right around 50. If he is going to put down a pre emergent then he shouldn’t waste his money and time on putting out seed. A pre emergent will also keep grass seed from germination. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2024 10:13:35 GMT -6
After seeing a post about "changing forecast" for NYC I looked at their forecast last night. Mix of rain/snow, little accumulation. This morning, WSW issued expecting 5-9" now. What dreams are made of. 😁
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2024 10:22:58 GMT -6
After seeing a post about "changing forecast" for NYC I looked at their forecast last night. Mix of rain/snow, little accumulation. This morning, WSW issued expecting 5-9" now. What dreams are made of. 😁 I can’t remember the last time we had a forecast go from 1 to 3 inches to a 5 to 9 winter storm warning…… Snow hates us for some reason lol |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 12, 2024 11:02:53 GMT -6
WNW of Rolla is getting hit hard with that mesoscale band. Another depressing system, luckily I didn't invest time in it!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2024 11:10:43 GMT -6
Maybe but might be doing nothing, it just did start snowing in Rolla after hours under good returns. Lots of dry air. That's what screwed it all up looks like.
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 12, 2024 11:26:48 GMT -6
So can we call winter over at this point.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2024 11:29:23 GMT -6
So can we call winter over at this point. Far from it, unfortunately... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2024 12:16:06 GMT -6
Echoes down around Rolla hitting a brick wall...another one bites the dust
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 12, 2024 12:18:41 GMT -6
Hit decent snow midway between Rolla and St James. Nothing sticking.. temps in upper 30s.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 12, 2024 12:22:20 GMT -6
The first forecast may have stunk, but the recalibration is working out ok. The meso band shown on the NAM has materialized... but not in any spot along I-44 in our viewing area to overcome marginal temps.
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Post by jeepers on Feb 12, 2024 13:13:38 GMT -6
Time to start planning those early spring gardens. I planted tomato and pepper seeds yesterday. Yeah, I’m starting to go in that direction too. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2024 13:46:01 GMT -6
So can we call winter over at this point. Far from it, unfortunately... Long range models say sorry about February, however agree that March will be the month of epic Winter bliss for our area/wheelhouse for sure... We'll see. We'll likely just keep 2 weeking ourselves to the Solar Eclipse and enter a busy severe weather pattern based on some of the latest CFS monthlies that come out twice a day or so. They have cut back on the Summer heat and drought though especially into July, then dry us out. Pretty typical actually. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2024 14:38:53 GMT -6
Full sunshine in Godfrey this afternoon.
48hrs ago models had it ripping snow.
Unbelievably poor model performance.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 12, 2024 14:53:55 GMT -6
I planted tomato and pepper seeds yesterday. Yeah, I’m starting to go in that direction too. My mom (when she was alive) was a school teacher. She would plant her tomatoes, cauliflower, broccoli, all those kinds of crops when she would have the day off for President's Day. Of course she kept them in house until it got warmer. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 12, 2024 14:56:31 GMT -6
Full sunshine in Godfrey this afternoon. 48hrs ago models had it ripping snow. Unbelievably poor model performance. Full sunshine in far north St. Peters, too. Started getting breaks in the clouds about 10 AM or so. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 12, 2024 15:38:23 GMT -6
Hazy sunshine now here in Bonne Terre. Never saw a flake. My son at college in Springfield MO sent a picture of about an inch they got this morning during a decent burst of snow, but it's melted there now and sunny.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 12, 2024 15:44:12 GMT -6
Full sunshine in Godfrey this afternoon. 48hrs ago models had it ripping snow. Unbelievably poor model performance. Lol..called it yesterday went from 3-6 in forecast to what I thought would be Sunny 🌞 and 50...was really hoping I was wrong but nope! Still chilly with breeze in Waterloo. Just over these last two close to zero snow winters..artic blasts with nothing!! Man 2021 and 2013/14 spoiled me...oh well let's go 60' and 70's weather..I'm ready! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 12, 2024 16:17:33 GMT -6
Chris, if there's a silver lining to the turd-polishing, it's that most people are done with winter anyway. If this was December or January, it would be a harder sell. There is truth to that for sure! |
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