Chris's Corner - Welcome to the Warmest Start Ever to Feb!

[BRTNWXMAN]

Looks like the 00z cycle trended south with the stationary/warm front and SLP track on Monday, favoring the southern counties for the severe threat.

[WEAXWATCHER]

Eastern OK, South Eastern and Southern MO and most of AR look to be the "sweet spot". Potentially a very busy day for the SPC and other NWS offices.

[Snowstorm920]

CAMs will start coming into range later today and tomorrow.

That will give us a much better look at the setup and environment for Monday.

[Snowstorm920]

Lift shouldn’t be in short supply around here

Textbook jet coupling on the GFS

[BRTNWXMAN]

Definitely a dynamic environment on Monday...but with that much large-scale lift, precip and debris clouds might be a limiting factor.

[bellevillewxguy]

Models and Ensembles looking more promising as we get closer to the eclipse 4/8. Now looking like we'll be more likely then not dry and likely fair to partly sunny skies. Looks like the next big storm holds off till the 9-11th period.

[BRTNWXMAN]

SPC mentions potential for a greater tornado threat near the warm front Monday with backed surface winds and high SRH...we'll have to watch that closely.

[guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters]

[BRTNWXMAN]

NAM looks too aggressive with pushing the boundary well south of the Metro Sunday PM/Mon AM...globals are further N with most of the area within the warm sector.

Looks like the N half or so of the area could see some elevated hailers tonight into tomorrow AM.

[Chris Higgins]

Some awesome weather right now! Most of the action tonight and tomorrow will be north of I-70... by quite a bit. I expect tge metro and south to be mainly dry through the weekend. The exception may be tonight as the bubbling of overnight storms may begin as far south as STL before ... but before they really ramp up into hailers. That threat appears to just hug my northern counties before the lift kicks away to the northeast.

Easter will be kind of muggy with the front lifting back north. The background pattern certainly looks favorable Monday for severe storms... but as BRTN points out, alot of things could squelch storms in this setup. Either way, more beneficial rain is on the way... and dependingbon the evolution, maybe excessive rain in some cases.

Have a great weekend! I do plan a new thread later today.

[Snowstorm920]

Made it up to 80° here today

Toasty

[kcwxdude]

Made it to 81 in Fenton/valley park today!

[tedrick65]

My corner of High Ridge only made it to 77.1 today

[REB]

My high was79.6*

[bdgwx]

I've been so busy at work lately I've not had much time to look at extended range forecasts for the eclipse like I had originally planned. It probably would have not have been that beneficial anyway as what little information I was looking at suggested there was no skill beyond the climatological average. But now that we're inside the D10 window forecast skill is going to start increasing rapidly. Below is the latest NBM forecast. It is showing about 50% coverage for Cape Girardeau. Synoptically it is looking like a ridge will develop next weekend and slide east of us with a trough to our west. Should it happen that way it would put us in the GOM fetch with higher PWAT values which would not be ideal. But it's not looking bad either with the trough being far enough west that we can keep that synoptically driven precipitation flag down for now. Verbatim NBM is showing precipitation chances less than 25%. Everyone knows the drill...nothing is set in stone yet.