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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 10, 2024 2:42:10 GMT -6
Keeping with the ensembles helped steady the forecast with this last storm...especially as some of the operational models pulled way too far to the north. I did pretty well using them as a guide until the storm came into a more reliable range of the hires short range and CAMS. They NAM3km and HRRR and RAP if I recall did a nice job handling the dynamic cooling and further south snowfall. Eventually, the NAM caught on and pulled way south and in the last few runs was hard to beat. Leaning on the GEFS for Friday seems to be a reasonable idea right now. It is interesting that the ensemble mean has an fairly significant signature for that narrow, arcing band of backside snow that the operational has been bring up I-44. That same signature is reflected in the prob of 1"+ and prob of 4"+ snows. If we managed a 3-5 snow under those conditions with crashing temps and gusty winds, that would be a mess of any evening rush Friday. If this is what your talking about Chris. GEFS did come wagons west on it'd 00z run. And stronger!  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 10, 2024 4:07:09 GMT -6
GFS is even more north this morning……..snow is pretty much north of the metro……. Unreal
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 4:08:49 GMT -6
This keeps up we will need to introduce severe weather lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2024 6:34:49 GMT -6
Well, it’ll sure be wintery come Sunday through Tuesday.
The two biggest snows most of us get this month will come from the two storms we paid the least attention too.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 6:46:18 GMT -6
Well, it’ll sure be wintery come Sunday through Tuesday. The two biggest snows most of us get this month will come from the two storms we paid the least attention too. If the ggem is right, people will be paying a lot of attention to it through Sunday |
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Post by goutkvols KCMO on Jan 10, 2024 6:47:33 GMT -6
I'll be at the playoff game Saturday night here in KC. It will most likely be the coldest playoff game and possibly the coldest ever game in Chiefs history.
7p Kick-Off
Air Temperature about 3 degrees
Wind Chill -15 to -20
Could be close to a foot of snow on the ground here between yesterday's storm and the storm hitting Friday. The field will be fine just cold.
We start tailgating about 2p when the parking gates open.
Lots of hot food and thankfully Mother Nature has taken care of keeping the beverages cold.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2024 7:06:20 GMT -6
This is getting old again. But so does every year. Instead of two more weeks... it might be two more years... maybe two more decades? It's not that I mind a whole lot that we get missed so often. It's that these close calls take up so much energy to forecast with nothing much to show for it. I feel for you. You carry the responsibility of the viewing area, and the rest of us only care for our backyard. Anytime, the line cuts through the viewing area, you got your work cut out. Feels like that transition zone was further south in prior decades more often, and we could always count on 2 warning level snows at least. Good luck next few days. Ill say again, i believe the biggest impact is going to be the crashing temps and the eventual cold and windchills. Time to go to the hardware store. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 10, 2024 7:17:16 GMT -6
Well I guess 2" is going to be the high water mark this winter. Winters here are absolute garbage anymore.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 7:41:32 GMT -6
nws has introd tstorms in forecast thur night and fri, so thats encouraging
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 10, 2024 7:58:20 GMT -6
This is getting old again. But so does every year. Instead of two more weeks... it might be two more years... maybe two more decades? It's not that I mind a whole lot that we get missed so often. It's that these close calls take up so much energy to forecast with nothing much to show for it. I feel for you. You carry the responsibility of the viewing area, and the rest of us only care for our backyard. Anytime, the line cuts through the viewing area, you got your work cut out. Feels like that transition zone was further south in prior decades more often, and we could always count on 2 warning level snows at least. Good luck next few days. Ill say again, i believe the biggest impact is going to be the crashing temps and the eventual cold and windchills. Time to go to the hardware store. I’m as frustrated as anyone but let’s not overreact and act like this isn’t typical STL weather as snow in concern. Go look back at snowfall totals by years. STL has had stretches of worst then the past couple. The only real outlier was from 1977-1982 where we received for above normal. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2024 8:01:32 GMT -6
Looking at the modeled snowfall vanish has me thinking of the song, “And All That Could Have Been” by Nine Inch Nails.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2024 8:14:38 GMT -6
I really hope Sunday happens for everyone. If we start to see it dry up over the next day or so's model runs we are going to have an issue. Good news is, Ukie and Euro have been trending wetter.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 8:51:45 GMT -6
Woke up to .063" of snow everywhere, on the grass, driveway, and back deck. Had to go back 10 hours on composite on the radar to see what actually fell and stuck cuz it's the only thing that's stuck in the last 48 hours. Absolutely heart crushing to see thunderstorms entered into the forecast for "OUR" next storm system. I definitely have to give kudos to the National Weather Service cuz they forecasted it pretty darn close over the last two "snows" we were supposed to get. I say that as my own excitement of watching the models and getting sucked into it one more time. Back to Step One.🤬🤪🤪🤪
Maybe SundayMonday is "OUR" storm.
Enjoy worldserieschampion, looks like you could be in for this next system.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 8:53:01 GMT -6
Guess we can stop worrying about Friday and move on to Sunday as far as snow goes. This system is even warmer then the last. In short the cold air just came in too late to little. Sunday now our best bet otherwise maybe around the 19th-24th. Short of that the pattern starts to get crappy towards the End of January and we're waiting on mid February into March fighting a dissolving El Nino and strengthening sun angle/longer daylight so what falls won't really stick for long. That or we just keep on torching into next Summer.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 8:56:52 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 10, 2024 9:11:37 GMT -6
Lol.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2024 9:13:54 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers. So 2024 will be the 12th summer like 2012 in a row?? 🤦🏼♂️ |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 9:18:42 GMT -6
RGEM throws us a small milkbone with 3-4" along a thin line along and south of I-70 through the heart of the metro Friday evening as the system pulls away. Looks like Dustings to an inch for everyone else from the backside. Boatload of rain though which is needed if the Spring and Summer fail to deliver.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 9:24:46 GMT -6
Just for Fun AccuNot has below normal temps and rain for 4/8/2024's total solar eclipse which is now into view of their 90 day outlook.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 9:27:15 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers. So 2024 will be the 12th summer like 2012 in a row?? 🤦🏼♂️ Last Summer while hotter then normal was not a 2012 repeat despite my earlier hype. Only 3 days reached 99*F or above at least here in Belleville. Perhaps 4-5 days @ downtown and they were not in a row. Humidity was more a killer then the temps. Next year looks more favorable for bigger longer lasting heat waves that could last several days in a row. That's what made 2012 'special'. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 9:31:17 GMT -6
Looks like our last hope Friday will be to cash in on some kind of deformation banding on the backside as the low bombs out
Then hopefully we can all cash in on the Sunday/Monday system
No mixing issues to worry about with that one
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 9:31:35 GMT -6
RGEM throws us a small milkbone with 3-4" along a thin line along and south of I-70 through the heart of the metro Friday evening as the system pulls away. Looks like Dustings to an inch for everyone else from the backside. Boatload of rain though which is needed if the Spring and Summer fail to deliver. I'm thinking this is the kind of stuff that Chris was referring to with the 'all the effort, little reward' he mentioned. Seems when a model starts showing where snow amounts might be less because of warming/DAM, whatever, it seems to verify. Yet, when the short terms seem to indicate something more it doesn't work out for us the 'majority' of the time. Maybe that is just my memory only focusing on the disappointments.  |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 10, 2024 9:42:42 GMT -6
It's not only that, it's the ridiculous expectations from the public. It would be super-easy for many of us who don't really give two s**** what people think, but he likely got into this profession because he loves the weather and wants to help people...only to have a bunch of them behave like children (on his own FB page or that of his employer). Throw in the fact that everyone can now see what's possible multiple days in advance, and I can't imagine what it's like trying to both prepare them and temper those expectations. It's got to be exhausting. Not meaning to speak for you, Chris Higgins. |
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 10, 2024 10:00:29 GMT -6
So 2024 will be the 12th summer like 2012 in a row?? 🤦🏼♂️ Last Summer while hotter then normal was not a 2012 repeat despite my earlier hype. Only 3 days reached 99*F or above at least here in Belleville. Perhaps 4-5 days @ downtown and they were not in a row. Humidity was more a killer then the temps. Next year looks more favorable for bigger longer lasting heat waves that could last several days in a row. That's what made 2012 'special'. STL had 5 out of 6 days 99°+ from 8/20/23-8/25/23. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 10:01:27 GMT -6
And there goes the gfs south on Sunday with stl barely on the far northern edge. I'm just going to go curl up in a fetal position and cry.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 10:10:25 GMT -6
And there goes the gfs south on Sunday with stl barely on the far northern edge. I'm just going to go curl up in a fetal position and cry. At least in Union... you are still in it. North of I-70 is looking drier by the minute lol. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 10:15:19 GMT -6
And there goes the gfs south on Sunday with stl barely on the far northern edge. I'm just going to go curl up in a fetal position and cry. At least in Union... you are still in it. North of I-70 is looking drier by the minute lol. Gem trending south too. Not as much, but still has a few days for a total nothing. Can't wait to see the snow-covered maps on Monday with literally all of MO with decent snow except the metro. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 10, 2024 10:15:22 GMT -6
For Sunday:
ICON furthest south thus far, barely even getting into the viewing area.
GFS has some snow up to I-70, southern counties get a few inches.
GEM is the best for all, but it's been wrong on every storm so far until about 48 hours out. Soooooo...
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 10:18:45 GMT -6
Maybe the bright side with no snow cover in the metro would be not getting below zero. As its harder to achieve with nare ground
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Post by dschreib on Jan 10, 2024 10:20:24 GMT -6
I guess the "good" news is the flow is NW and the DGZ is nearly at the surface, so we *shouldn't* have to deal with the DAM. Since we've been talking about the strike zone, it's likely that we'll swing and miss at two pitches up and out of the zone, then get called out on the fastball that you couldn't hit with a 9 iron.
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