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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2023 22:05:37 GMT -6
I've looked through the records from the Midwest Regional Climate Center and it appears the St. Louis area is about to break the record for the latest first trace of snow. I would consider this to be unofficial at this point, but it is still noteworthy since there is no chance for snow through at least early next week. Maybe the middle of next week? Who knows. So merry muddy Christmas with 1-2 inches of rain likely between Thursday and Tuesday.  |
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Post by kcwxdude on Dec 19, 2023 22:49:38 GMT -6
Bum bum bummm. What a weird fall it’s been. Very dry and now potentially breaking the record for latest snowfall… we just want snow, Chris!! That being said we need the rainfall badly, so any moisture at this point is very welcome!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 19, 2023 23:06:32 GMT -6
Bring on the rain, then maybe once snow comes it won't dry up before it can accumulate.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2023 10:30:44 GMT -6
Looks like it won't be until after New Years that we see snow, possibly MLK day period when the SSW finally starts affecting the troposphere and gets the cold air to plunge southward as the El Nino starts fading. Of course the MJO is not playing ball either near the neutral circle, so not much help there.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2023 11:27:52 GMT -6
This winter will entirely hinge on a PV event happening in January.
I agree with MLK to Valentines Day being our highest potential.
However, I think there will be a 1 week period during the potential SSW where we could get something (right around 2-5th)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2023 12:22:45 GMT -6
I think snowfall per year runs from July 1st until June 30th, then starts again with July 1st. At any rate while some snow is possible around or just after the New Year, I'm not hanging my hat on it. Between MLK and if we're really lucky St. Patricks Day is going to be our 'Winter' otherwise it's heat and drought well into next Autumn as La Nina looks to kick in nice and hard.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 20, 2023 20:36:47 GMT -6
18z gfs is trying to have a 10 year anniversary on Jan 5 lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 21, 2023 7:24:29 GMT -6
Just read a Facebook post by someone in Edmonton, AB. They haven't gotten any snow yet this season either. Their temperature yesterday was in the upper 40s⁰ F.
We are not alone.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 21, 2023 8:30:17 GMT -6
We were due for a good muddy Christmas. We haven't had one in a while.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 21, 2023 11:34:47 GMT -6
12z GFS finally lying to us..lol boy it has some eye candy 🍬 🤣 😳 in fantasy land! I will say there are other indicators for that time frame...keep hoping..
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2023 12:42:38 GMT -6
Decent shot at seeing flakes fly in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe next week with a cutoff sitting overhead.
There are a couple of massive ensemble members that show the 0.00000001% outcome that are fun to look at.
Things look decent towards New Years on the gfs likely influenced by a reflective PV event.
Time will tell.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Dec 21, 2023 14:37:10 GMT -6
I'm Booking A Flight January 5th.... this should help a snowstorm form 😂
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2023 15:01:58 GMT -6
gonna be too warm at surface for any flakes for at least another 10 days..probably longer IMO
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2023 19:33:02 GMT -6
Euro is now on team PV stretch, so should see a quicker turn towards winter around New Years.
Downside is stretch events are short duration, so nothing sustained.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 21, 2023 21:48:47 GMT -6
Just read a Facebook post by someone in Edmonton, AB. They haven't gotten any snow yet this season either. Their temperature yesterday was in the upper 40s⁰ F. We are not alone. There are places in northern MN that historically have 100% probability of a white Christmas that are having a brown one this year. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2023 22:32:27 GMT -6
00z ggem drops some flakes on Wednesday.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 21, 2023 23:28:44 GMT -6
18z gfs is trying to have a 10 year anniversary on Jan 5 lol This is already gone on the 00z GFS. 🥹 |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 22, 2023 11:34:52 GMT -6
18z gfs is trying to have a 10 year anniversary on Jan 5 lol This is already gone on the 00z GFS. 🥹 |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 22, 2023 11:36:18 GMT -6
Gem is Cold after Christmas..GFS drops the cold and storm just after NY..has 8-12 lolipop...I know super fantasy!! 👌
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 22, 2023 12:27:32 GMT -6
The MJO forecast does look favorable for a colder pattern after Christmas. The stratospheric forecast didn't look favorable the last time I looked, but maybe that's changed. I've been hearing rumors of a possible SSW event...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 22, 2023 16:16:29 GMT -6
Yeah, models are definitely suggesting a potential SSW event unfolding around the 1st...hopefully that verifies and shakes up this horrendous pattern we've been stuck in.
I could see some flakes flying next week with that cut-off meandering overhead if we end up underneath the cold core like the GFS/GEM shows.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 22, 2023 17:26:40 GMT -6
This is already gone on the 00z GFS. 🥹 Storm is back on the 18z run today 😂 |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 22, 2023 18:34:22 GMT -6
Storm is back on the 18z run today 😂 |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 22, 2023 18:36:50 GMT -6
Yes she is!! She's a Buet (spelling) Clark, fantasy or not Memphis low and a 1042 High pushing down..even extends snow out a day!If only..well Christmas is the time for believing!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 22, 2023 22:13:56 GMT -6
00z gfs and ggem looking more bullish on snow flying by midweek next week.
Nothing big, but at least will feel more like the holidays.
The 42 degree rain is currently very depressing.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Dec 22, 2023 22:24:28 GMT -6
How they looking for the storm the following week?
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 22, 2023 23:19:03 GMT -6
How they looking for the storm the following week? |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 22, 2023 23:21:17 GMT -6
GFS is waffling...it's not there on this run Bob..but who knows...it's a wait and see.Like WSC said it's gets colder after Christmas so we have that going for us..I agree 54 at 1130 on 12/23..I'm running my fan to cool off in my room tonight geeezz.
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Post by REB on Dec 23, 2023 7:03:46 GMT -6
So tired of this weather. Experienced the same wet, 40’s 50’s while we were gone for 10 days. This is depressing. And no, 60’s don’t work either. I want Winter.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 23, 2023 7:10:46 GMT -6
I second that Reb
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