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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 10:48:58 GMT -6
Man, UK is way back north. Crazy model spread for being at the 72 hour mark.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 10:51:28 GMT -6
The GEFS continues to look solid for Friday 12z Ukmet shows the other extreme side of the outcome envelope. Extremely amped and north I plotted the low location of the UKMET (red X near Chicago) at hour 84 on top of the GEFS low locations at the same time
UKMET would be an extreme outlier in the GEFS camp
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 11:04:59 GMT -6
12z Ukmet shows the other extreme side of the outcome envelope. Extremely amped and north I plotted the low location of the UKMET (red X near Chicago) at hour 84 on top of the GEFS low locations at the same time
UKMET would be an extreme outlier in the GEFS camp
I would prefer something between the 2. They are the 2 ends of the distribution, so it’ll probably meet somewhere in the middle. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2024 11:07:01 GMT -6
12z Ukmet shows the other extreme side of the outcome envelope. Extremely amped and north I plotted the low location of the UKMET (red X near Chicago) at hour 84 on top of the GEFS low locations at the same time
UKMET would be an extreme outlier in the GEFS camp
Not nearly as robust as the grand ensemble from the NWS, but it’s a start to show the spread. You could overlay the rest of the models as well. I don’t see this one cutting. Usually after a cutter we get missed to the south. But, this storm’s post cold is different in that it’s not nearly as robust as in the past. So, who knows. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 11:46:51 GMT -6
It’s mid January and a moderate rain in Chicago 😂
Where do I need to move?
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Post by yypc on Jan 9, 2024 11:49:49 GMT -6
It’s mid January and a moderate rain in Chicago 😂 Where do I need to move? Valdez, Alaska. 325in a year on avg |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 11:54:19 GMT -6
It’s mid January and a moderate rain in Chicago 😂 Where do I need to move? Valdez, Alaska. 325in a year on avg I think my ideal would be a place that averages 50 inches a year. Then it happens enough Im never upset about missing it, but not so much that it becomes boring to track. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 9, 2024 11:57:37 GMT -6
28.93 inHg reporting at my house. Pretty sure I calibrated to Parks when I set it up.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 9, 2024 12:07:08 GMT -6
Valdez, Alaska. 325in a year on avg I think my ideal would be a place that averages 50 inches a year. Then it happens enough Im never upset about missing it, but not so much that it becomes boring to track. I think a lot of the New England states are around that. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2024 12:17:53 GMT -6
While the low placement is better for Friday, I'm starting to become concerned with the lack of precip being thrown back into the cold air as shown on the Euro, and now the nam. That's a legit concern...that storm is a quick mover on models despite the negative tilt. By the time the cold wraps back in, the storm is already lifting out. That's going to be a big limiting factor with totals unless it slows down or pivots. I'm banking on a few inches at most currently...but even that could be significant with the strong winds and crashing temps. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:18:19 GMT -6
Geez, the 12z euro is a full bomb cyclone, just a bit too far north for STL.
A true historic Midwest blizzard there
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 12:20:28 GMT -6
Ya that’s a doozy of a bomb low on the euro
It looks like the NW half of the area would still be able to pick up a few inches along with some ferocious winds
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 9, 2024 12:20:43 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS for Fridays storm.   |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 12:20:52 GMT -6
Geez, the 12z is a full bomb cyclone, just a bit too far north for STL. A true historic Midwest blizzard there You get pounded, there. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:22:24 GMT -6
Geez, the 12z is a full bomb cyclone, just a bit too far north for STL. A true historic Midwest blizzard there You get pounded, there. I’ll believe it when I see it. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 9, 2024 12:24:15 GMT -6
Oh well sounds like another miss for us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 12:25:23 GMT -6
I am skeptical of these hyper intensifying lows like the euro and ukmet or showing
The upper level pattern definitely supports a rapidly intensifying low, I’m just not sure I buy it intensifying that quickly
The models had todays storm intensifying rapidly a couple days ago and backed off as we got closer
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2024 12:27:40 GMT -6
Valdez, Alaska. 325in a year on avg I think my ideal would be a place that averages 50 inches a year. Then it happens enough Im never upset about missing it, but not so much that it becomes boring to track. So, Northwoods of Wisconsin or Michigan then. Something away from the lakes, but close enough that any storms that come through during the winter usually result in snow. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2024 12:29:09 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS for Fridays storm. GEFS is a bit too far east. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:30:27 GMT -6
I think my ideal would be a place that averages 50 inches a year. Then it happens enough Im never upset about missing it, but not so much that it becomes boring to track. So, Northwoods of Wisconsin or Michigan then. Something away from the lakes, but close enough that any storms that come through during the winter usually result in snow. I would do a suburb, but not something too rural. I will be priced out of Chicago in the next 5-10 years along with everyone else 😂 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 12:31:54 GMT -6
then euro is south sunday. About to give up on this sh1t
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 9, 2024 12:36:43 GMT -6
Same here 99
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:37:12 GMT -6
The more wound up and northwest the Friday storm, the more suppressed I would expect the Sunday storm.
Sunday storm needs to sneak out in front of the arctic hammer as much as possible and can’t do that with a bomb in front of it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 12:40:21 GMT -6
If you split the difference between the GFS camp and Euro camp we are sitting in a good spot
That’s about all you can do at this time until the models start to agree with each other more
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2024 12:51:15 GMT -6
So, Northwoods of Wisconsin or Michigan then. Something away from the lakes, but close enough that any storms that come through during the winter usually result in snow. I would do a suburb, but not something too rural. I will be priced out of Chicago in the next 5-10 years along with everyone else 😂 Green Bay, St. Paul, Traverse City would all be good choices. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 12:56:54 GMT -6
GFS still showing -20 wind chills Monday night.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 12:58:19 GMT -6
Sunday's word of the day will be "virga"
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 9, 2024 12:58:19 GMT -6
GFS still showing -20 wind chills Monday night. Brrrrrr |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 13:17:20 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles closely resemble the GFS ensembles
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 13:23:16 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles closely resemble the GFS ensembles Have to disagree with you a bit there. The means are similar, but the GEPS has two distinct camps. One is west like the euro and one is east like the gfs. |
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