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Post by ajd446 on Jan 8, 2024 22:02:27 GMT -6
Unfortunately the gem is north
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2024 22:03:10 GMT -6
Inside 100 hours for the Friday system
That’s when it starts to feel more real
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2024 22:10:38 GMT -6
Measured about 2.5 in Bowling Green... guessing 3 is probably more accurate... but it was compacting as fast as it was falling.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:14:50 GMT -6
00z gfs with snow and 0 degree temps Sunday night in STL.
No precip type issues there…
Kuchera method has ratios at 25-1 in the region so adjust your expectations around QPF.
Doesn’t take much at those ratios.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2024 22:15:04 GMT -6
Ahh you up in Bowling Green! Be safe Chris!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 8, 2024 22:15:39 GMT -6
Looks like a fun weekend ahead!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2024 22:21:59 GMT -6
Talk about a classic “Blue Norther” on Sunday night. Doesn’t get any more textbook than that.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:26:26 GMT -6
Talk about a classic “Blue Norther” on Sunday night. Doesn’t get any more textbook than that. Some extreme cold being modeled. High temperature below 0 on MLK would be pretty wild. Extreme pattern |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 8, 2024 22:28:45 GMT -6
Hey 920. When you told me the other day to use the depth Positive change for snowfall totals with this current storm. Is that a more accurate representation to use with all storms or just certain ones? I know in the past I used to see alot more of the snow ratio talk, like 10:1 on here. And I know that only goes so far Anyways. But is one or the other better to use. Or does it always come down to the dynamics of a storm on which one to use. I assume drier snow, wetter snow factors into all that. Anyone can answer, doesn't necessarily have to be you. Thx Positive snow depth change is what the model thinks will actually accumulate on the ground. Generally it’s the best to use for snowfall accumulations. It’s not perfect though, and shouldn’t be used in a vacuum. Yeah- that would suck |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 8, 2024 22:32:53 GMT -6
Talk about a classic “Blue Norther” on Sunday night. Doesn’t get any more textbook than that. Some extreme cold being modeled. High temperature below 0 on MLK would be pretty wild. Extreme pattern The classic fluff 1-3” after the big one. I’ll never forget that week 10 years ago. First week of January 2014. Got the big storm and then 2” a couple days later that was like feathers. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2024 22:33:35 GMT -6
The GEFS is pretty close to benchmark positions for Friday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:35:21 GMT -6
Some extreme cold being modeled. High temperature below 0 on MLK would be pretty wild. Extreme pattern The classic fluff 1-3” after the big one. I’ll never forget that week 10 years ago. First week of January 2014. Got the big storm and then 2” a couple days later that was like feathers. Might want to look at the ratios again. A lot more fluff than that on this run anyway |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2024 22:40:43 GMT -6
Ya the GEFS continues to look stellar for Friday  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:46:18 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is a record setting low pressure and raging blizzard
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2024 22:47:46 GMT -6
Well what could possibly go wrong in the next 90 hours?
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 8, 2024 22:49:51 GMT -6
I’m pretty pessimistic / jaded about Friday. I sense a repeat. Northern MO cashes and we hope for some backside flakes down here. STL in the middle / battleground.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:50:19 GMT -6
Ukmet also has the Sunday evening storm for those south of 70.
Temps around 0 and 4+ inches of snow modeled on that last storm.
Incredible
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Post by amstilost on Jan 8, 2024 22:57:40 GMT -6
Looking at the 850mb mean temps on the GEFS puts me below 0*C between 6am and noon with .74 6hr mean qpf. If I half that to allow time to go below 0*C I get .37 as snow, then close to .25 the next 6 hours falling in -7 to -9*C air. Looks great to me but it sure is a razor thin margin for no further NW trend.  Close, close, close but........................................... Let me light the 'cigar' once in a while.  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 8, 2024 23:58:48 GMT -6
The GEFS is pretty close to benchmark positions for Friday. More impressive jet coupling at 250mb. After you brought it to our attention for this current system, now I wonder if the frontal triple points will give the ensembles fits with low positions for the Fri/Sat system. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 0:04:35 GMT -6
Oh and the sleet tonight for areas near and around the I-44 corridor brought back classic winter STL metro memories!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 0:25:45 GMT -6
Euro would be a bonafide blizzard for most of the area Friday
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Post by amstilost on Jan 9, 2024 0:33:25 GMT -6
Euro would be a bonafide blizzard for most of the area Friday I know a 'blizzard' doesn't necassarily have to do heavy/large snowfall amounts but after looking at the 500 and 850mb vort charts I was quite happy only to be dismayed at the 850mb temp charts. Then just 3-4" of snow IMBY. Surely the snow isn't going to be that far displaced north? Is it? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 5:57:37 GMT -6
6z GFS is a pretty big hit. Definitely further S and weaker than 00z. Which, If we are going to get hit, is probably what we need.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 9, 2024 6:05:41 GMT -6
In all the excitement leading up to today's storm I certainly missed the fact that it was going to be in the low 40s on Wednesday and near 50 on Thursday.WTH🤬🥵🥵
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 6:20:05 GMT -6
6z GFS is a pretty big hit. Definitely further S and weaker than 00z. Which, If we are going to get hit, is probably what we need. Yeah, quite the shift on the 6z gfs and gefs. Looks like some issues resolving how much to put into the northern energy which suppressed the southern energy and actually prevents much if anything on several ensemble members. On the other hand, the 6z euro remains rock solid with a 979mb low in the bootheel. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 6:21:56 GMT -6
As much as I feel some potential in Friday, the highest impact will be sunday, unless things get supressed. Regardless temps on monday are going to be brutal
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 7:24:13 GMT -6
While the low placement is better for Friday, I'm starting to become concerned with the lack of precip being thrown back into the cold air as shown on the Euro, and now the nam.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 8:03:04 GMT -6
it should be an arrestable offense to look at the NAM past 48 hours
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2024 8:07:15 GMT -6
Hey 920. When you told me the other day to use the depth Positive change for snowfall totals with this current storm. Is that a more accurate representation to use with all storms or just certain ones? I know in the past I used to see alot more of the snow ratio talk, like 10:1 on here. And I know that only goes so far Anyways. But is one or the other better to use. Or does it always come down to the dynamics of a storm on which one to use. I assume drier snow, wetter snow factors into all that. Anyone can answer, doesn't necessarily have to be you. Thx Positive snow depth change is what the model thinks will actually accumulate on the ground. Generally it’s the best to use for snowfall accumulations. It’s not perfect though, and shouldn’t be used in a vacuum. I would never try to vaccuum the snow. Blowing it, shoveling it, sweeping it is always better |
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Post by freezyfree on Jan 9, 2024 8:23:00 GMT -6
My better half would like me to ask when you believe the changeover to snow might occur today in Jeffco MO? (He is the Dunklin Supt.)
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