FINALLY... A NEW THREAD... Smells like a new car!

[bellevillewxguy]

Hurricane Hilary now a strong Cat 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific, with a small chance of reaching Cat 5 strength later today before gradually weakening. Still looks like a direct hit on the southwestern coastline of California Sunday night into Monday early Morning as a weak to at worst a moderate tropical storm between 40-60mph at landfall. Atlantic is now coming alive with something forming and heading into Texas and around the ridge later this weekend into early next week and a couple of storms to form in the eastern and central Atlantic over the next few days.

As for our heatwave and 'Death Ridge' it's steady as she goes. Still see a brief shot of reach 603DM at the center of the ridge Sunday into Tuesday time frame before it gradually begins to weaken with 850MB temps pushing 30*C+ with the center to be between KC and Metro St. Louis for a few days. Heat Watches are in affect Sunday through next week with triple digits looking assured from the metro area on west. Heat Index Values could approach 115*F greater by Tuesday and Wednesday as some more moisture (possibly some from a tropical disturbance looping around from Texas) gets entrained into the ridge. Next shot of relief looks to hold off till Friday if not next weekend.

[Snowstorm920]

Tropical storm watch issued for southern California

First time that’s ever happened

Some locations in the desert southwest are going to get YEARS worth of rain in a single day

[bellevillewxguy]

Aug 18, 2023 10:15:38 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

Tropical storm watch issued for southern California

First time that’s ever happened

Some locations in the desert southwest are going to get YEARS worth of rain in a single day

Yeah, even Death Valley, which will be moving to the central US for a spell. Definitely an interesting if not almost historical global weather pattern of extreme for sure.

[beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO]

Idk...i personally wldnt use the words historical as it relates to the weather pattern myself. Im annoyed by the media blowing this up as an agw thing too. Its certainly interesting, but as mentioned weve had remnants reach the ca coast before and a tropical storm hit less than 100 years ago. The heat will certainly send ameren bills skyrocketing but being in the nw flow for much of the summer just means we are paying for it, and few ppl wld ever say they didnt see that coming. As i mentioned late summer heatwaves are more difficult to displace than models depict. I think thats just a big part of the seasonal lag trends weve been seeing for years now.

[cozpregon]

Seen a lot of tropical systems off to the SW of Baja over the years- seen a lot of 600 ridges over the central U.S over the years, Just so happens they are set up just right to bring this into Southern California. It's weather.

[bdgwx]

Didn't we have 603 DM ridge in August last year?

[amstilost]

I made a post 4 pages ago, 7 days ago, about the amazing forecast for this week. That forecast was from the point forecasts. I had a whole paragraph down but figured I would have the Ban Hammer hit me. I sure didn't hear 7 days of "get ready for the awesome weather" like I have heard the 'drumbeat' for the heat for 7 days. I do get that severe heat can be dangerous to 'some' people. We sure don't get that kind of lead up to severe weather when that affects 'everybody'. Maybe I'm losing or have lost my common sense with things these days.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Aug 18, 2023 19:43:28 GMT -6 amstilost said:

I made a post 4 pages ago, 7 days ago, about the amazing forecast for this week. That forecast was from the point forecasts. I had a whole paragraph down but figured I would have the Ban Hammer hit me. I sure didn't hear 7 days of "get ready for the awesome weather" like I have heard the 'drumbeat' for the heat for 7 days. I do get that severe heat can be dangerous to 'some' people. We sure don't get that kind of lead up to severe weather when that affects 'everybody'. Maybe I'm losing or have lost my common sense with things these days.

Sounds like this will shock you, but a cursory Google search shows extreme heat usually is the leading weather related cause of death.

It literally affects everyone, while severe storms usually impact very specific areas.

Keep in mind how many people don’t have or can’t afford AC.


Supporting evidence: www.weather.gov/hazstat/

[Snowstorm920]

Ya, excessive heat and flooding are the two biggest weather related killers.

Heat is usually by far the biggest weather related killer every year

[amstilost]

Yes, that is surprising. I guess I am too focused on this little 2' circle I encompass. I guess my 30 years working as a welder and having to put on extra clothes in the summer has made me a little more tolerant of the heat than most. Guess I need to read more. Thanks for the info.

[Jeffmw]

I’m not a fan of the heat but I’m glad we have a break from the severe storms.

[REB]

I think everyone in Belleville is mowing before the heat sets in.

[WEAXWATCHER]

Aug 19, 2023 12:36:52 GMT -6 REB said:

I think everyone in Belleville is mowing before the heat sets in.

I mowed Thursday after sending Mac home. I needed the distraction.

[REB]

Aug 19, 2023 12:43:26 GMT -6 WEAXWATCHER said:

Aug 19, 2023 12:36:52 GMT -6 REB said:

I think everyone in Belleville is mowing before the heat sets in.

I mowed Thursday after sending Mac home. I needed the distraction.

I’m so sorry about Mac. I still grieve for Buddy 

[guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters]

Trying to understand the media build up of Hillary going into SoCal. Yes, I understand that it is a very unique event. But I seen the rain forecasts of 2-4 inches for much of the area area. Yes, there are spots where the forecast is for 6 or more inches and areas of the desert are going to get more rain than they normally do in a year or two. But for the urban areas of San Diego and Los Angeles hype of these predictions seems odd. When these places get their winter wet season frequently precip totals of 8 or 10 or more inches are reported. But now the reports say the expected 2-4 inches are more than they ever get.

So which is it?

[Snowman99]

it's not winter.

[Snowstorm920]

The rainfall rates are more important than the total rainfall.

Tropical downpours on a semi arid mountainous landscape is a recipe for disaster

[Snowstorm920]

WPC Discussion

Portions of the West...
The guidance is unanimous in merging Hilary with an upper low
stuck near central CA this period, and has picked up the pace on
its acceleration into/across the area. Normally for a tropical
cyclone this would be a problem as convective lows would circle
the periphery parallel to 1000-500 hPa thickness lines, which
would otherwise
turn it more north or north-northeast, but since Hilary should be
strongly shearing while moving over cold waters and interacting
with the Peninsular Ranges of the Baja California Peninsula and
southern CA, it should be transitioning to a post-tropical or
remnant low in the process and have diminishing convection in its
vicinity; the guidance probably isn't displaying its typical model
bias (this time). A large area of precipitable water values of
1.75-2.25" will approach if not exceed all-time records across
portions of the Southwest, so there will be moisture to spare. In
the Southwest in particular, flow at 750 hPa is expected to reach
or exceed 65 kts, so heavy upslope rains on the atypical sides of
the southern Sierra Nevada and Peninsula Ranges of CA are
anticipated. If the flow is more southerly than expected due to a
slightly more westerly track of Hilary, there's a chance that both
sides of the Peninsular Ranges of southern CA could get heavy
rainfall. The 19/12z NAEFS is indicating IVT values 19.1 sigmas
above the mean; it should be noted that it is using a dataset that
does not include the rash of tropical cyclones that impacted the
Southwest in the 1970's, so this value is likely a bit too high.
Even assuming a non-standard distribution and standard deviations
half as large, this is extreme. There is a very real potential
for 3" amounts in an hour in this environment should sufficient
instability be present. Even if instability was completely
eroded, 0.5" an hour totals would be possible; heavy rain appears
inevitable. The 00z Canadian Regional shows local amounts of
towards 10", which would be exceeding rare for the region from a
tropical cyclone, potentially unique for Nevada. The 100 year ARI
is forecast to be exceeded. Some locations within this arid
region are slated to get 1-2 years worth of rain in one day. If a
7"+ maximum materialized over Mount Charleston Sunday into early
Monday, it would challenge Nevada's 24 hour rainfall record, set
in 2004.

The heavy rainfall combined with high winds expected at elevation
could lead to mudslides and landslides, which would be exacerbated
where trees uproot within saturating soils. Debris flows and rock
slides are a given considering the volume of rainfall expected.
The overall combination of effects could block and undermine
roads, particularly sensitive areas such as sections of U.S. 50 in
NV. Towns could get cut off. Given the overall uniqueness of
this event and expected impacts, the High Risk for areas of
southern CA remains justified. The main change was the joining of
the two separate High Risk areas and some slight westward shift of
the risk areas in CA, NV, UT, and AZ and some northward stretching
of the threat areas to account for the slightly accelerated
guidance.

[cozpregon]

At least next weekend is looking excellent

[Snowman99]

This coming week looks excellent as well. If you're a raging homicidal psychopath.

[John G -west belleville]

Aug 19, 2023 16:49:29 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

This coming week looks excellent as well. If you're a raging homicidal psychopath.

Or Bellevillewxguy

[bellevillewxguy]

You know it's gonna be stupidly hot when even the NWS Area Forecast Disco is using colorful words like disgusting in their discussions...

"Dewpoints were initially questioned because of uncertainty with the
depth of mixing. However, a strong capping inversion will keep
mixing heights to between 3-4k feet, which is 1-2k feet lower
than yesterday`s guidance. The exception will be far southwestern
sections of the CWA (around Jefferson City), where the surface
wave draws in slightly lower dewpoints (upper 60s) from the west
and southwest. Consequently, slightly lower dewpoints will also be
where temperatures have the best shot at climbing above 100
degrees. HREF shows 70-100 percent of the members reaching 100
along and south of I-70, where the front is most likely to stall
in its southward progress. The question then is just how high
dewpoints will be. This is where the forecast gets disgusting with
90-100 percent of the members show heat index values at or above
105 degrees areawide. Increasing the threshold to 110 degrees
still yields 70-90 percent of the members in close proximity to
the boundary (along I-70) and 50-70 percent of the members
favoring 110 just outside this stretch. As much as it has been
hammered away in the last several days, some of the heat index
values could reach serious levels with latest data peaking heat

index values near 115 in some areas between 20z-23z."

Just a taste of Arabian Peninsula heat, granted a minor one... No 178*F heat Indexes here!

[Snowman99]

One of the worst 5 day forecasts I've seen around here with the heat index.
Everyone take care this week, and check on the elderly and vulnerable. If you work outside, God help ya, drink A LOT of water and take breaks. Don't leave pets outside, bring them into the AC. It's going g to be horrific.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Perfect 5 days to see if you want to live in Phoenix…

[yypc]

Aug 20, 2023 8:31:48 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Perfect 5 days to see if you want to live in Phoenix…

More like Austin TX. Phoenix dews usually top out in the 60s. 100* with 80+ dews is more of a mississippi valley thing.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Aug 20, 2023 8:36:52 GMT -6 yypc said:

Aug 20, 2023 8:31:48 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Perfect 5 days to see if you want to live in Phoenix…

More like Austin TX. Phoenix dews usually top out in the 60s. 100* with 80+ dews is more of a mississippi valley thing.

They were over 115 for like a month straight, so I think it still applies.

Regardless, neither would be places I would choose to live.

[yypc]

Aug 20, 2023 8:41:47 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Aug 20, 2023 8:36:52 GMT -6 yypc said:

More like Austin TX. Phoenix dews usually top out in the 60s. 100* with 80+ dews is more of a mississippi valley thing.

They were over 115 for like a month straight, so I think it still applies.

Regardless, neither would be places I would choose to live.

Members of this forum should only move to places where it snows more than stl! Ha. I agree I wouldnt move to either. Phoenix put up some low temps that were around 97-98, which nightime lows not really getting below 90 for all of July. Pure hell.

[jmg378s]

SPC mesoanalysis indicating that 600dm 500mb heights are already present in KS. With the axis of the low level thermal ridge extending eastward to STL. In fact several aircraft out of KSTL this morning measured 850mb temps at 28C.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Anyone know why the gfs can’t do extreme heat?

I don’t expect 113 in Iowa or KC.

[Snowman99]

It's been that way at least the last couple years. Mixes things out to much usually too allowing Temps to be about 10+ degrees warmer than reality.