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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 13:25:45 GMT -6
I was looking at my NWS forecast and saw the mention of heavy snow Thursday. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them use that wording this far out.  Especially with 40% pops haha |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 17, 2022 13:27:33 GMT -6
Ratios are 20:1 -25:1 on the Euro
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 13:39:36 GMT -6
So, is the Euro too far east or west for St Louis to get hammered ?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 13:42:34 GMT -6
So, is the Euro too far east or west for St Louis to get hammered ? Northeast. It just bombs out a little too late to produce prolific snow totals. Verbatim, it still produces near blizzard conditions. A huge impact storm |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 13:47:22 GMT -6
So, is the Euro too far east or west for St Louis to get hammered ? Northeast. It just bombs out a little too late to produce prolific snow totals. Verbatim, it still produces near blizzard conditions. A huge impact storm Thanks. I know the focus isn't huge totals as much as the impacts from the bitter cold and wind. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 13:59:46 GMT -6
Using 10:1 ratios, the 12z EPS has a mean of 2" in STL and the 12z GEFS has a mean of 3"
Ratios should be higher than 10:1
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 17, 2022 14:08:09 GMT -6
With what is currently modeled, I would definitely fly in on Wednesday, obviously that could change at any time, but Thursday afternoon looks to be prime time for snow/wind/falling temps Thanks. I'm trying to decide whether to change my flight now, or wait for updated forecasts. But does snow and extreme wind and cold with highly impacted travel seem like a pretty good lock? (regardless of amounts) |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 14:16:24 GMT -6
With what is currently modeled, I would definitely fly in on Wednesday, obviously that could change at any time, but Thursday afternoon looks to be prime time for snow/wind/falling temps Thanks. I'm trying to decide whether to change my flight now, or wait for updated forecasts. But does snow and extreme wind and cold with highly impacted travel seem like a pretty good lock? (regardless of amounts) The only real lock is the extreme cold. 5 days out any modeled storm can “disappear” |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 17, 2022 14:35:51 GMT -6
The NWS only gives a 40% chance of snow for my area Thursday.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 14:44:16 GMT -6
lol
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 17, 2022 14:47:15 GMT -6
The NWS only gives a 40% chance of snow for my area Thursday. That's a usual probability for still being 5 days out. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2022 15:40:08 GMT -6
Seems like we've got two model camps emerging...the GFS/GEM which are further south and the UK/EC which are further north. The northern solutions look a bit overdone with the ridge out front...I don't think this storm is going to develop well off to our north like that with so much digging energy and the pressing ridge over the top. The timing of the pivot and negative tilt is crucial to the track of this...and models just aren't going to be consistent with that outside of a few days. But the overwhelming takeaway from the 12z runs is the initial Fgen band associated with the digging trof and surging front is much more robust than earlier runs had it. And the potential is there for the storm to deepen rapidly as it passes, which could put us in a favorable spot for the deformation/wrap around and possible near-blizzard conditions. With or without the bombogenesis...a few inches of powder and 40mph+ wind gusts would make it a high impact event...especially with the severe wind chills being a factor.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Dec 17, 2022 15:47:24 GMT -6
Is to early to call this a watcher?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2022 15:55:22 GMT -6
If you take a blend of the GEFS and EPS means, we're sitting in a great spot ~5 days out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 16:11:16 GMT -6
18z GFS looks largely unchanged from its previous run
Blizzard with amazing cold
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 16:15:34 GMT -6
yep 18z full steAm ahead
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 16:17:09 GMT -6
GFS wants so badly to go kaboom.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 17, 2022 17:05:50 GMT -6
18z NBM looking good with the snowfall and the crazy cold wind chills.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 17:47:21 GMT -6
here's to a rockin' model output tonight. I did christmas today, so I'm half drunk lol.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2022 17:56:15 GMT -6
ah yes, all the drunk posting is what I look forward to the most. red wine for me right now, but maybe some frangelica + irish cream + egg nog as we get closer to the holidays.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2022 18:01:44 GMT -6
ah yes, all the drunk posting is what I look forward to the most. red wine for me right now, but maybe some frangelica + irish cream + egg nog as we get closer to the holidays. Have you had the Southern Comfort black label egg nog? That stuff is so good it should be illegal! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2022 18:07:29 GMT -6
ah yes, all the drunk posting is what I look forward to the most. red wine for me right now, but maybe some frangelica + irish cream + egg nog as we get closer to the holidays. Have you had the Southern Comfort black label egg nog? That stuff is so good it should be illegal! haven't tried it. Thanks for the heads up though. maybe I'll get some. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 17, 2022 18:08:10 GMT -6
Steak Taters And Gravy for me thanks!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2022 18:18:37 GMT -6
Steak Taters And Gravy for me thanks! "The gold standard" |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 18:21:36 GMT -6
the eggo egg nog sippin' cream. great stuff
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Dec 17, 2022 19:02:14 GMT -6
Having a long island tea to get ready for some good model runs tonight.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 17, 2022 19:09:45 GMT -6
Probably going with Ezra Brooks tonight—107 proof.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 17, 2022 19:17:39 GMT -6
Lmao!! It's gonna get fun and weird in here this week.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 17, 2022 19:21:35 GMT -6
the eggo egg nog sippin' cream. great stuff Made my own the other day. Even better than the Eggo Eggnog. I may or may not have used some locally made distillates in the final product. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 17, 2022 19:30:05 GMT -6
Diet Pepsi for me. I’ll drive y’all around.
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