Chris's Corner - The Christmas Edition for 2022

[BRTNWXMAN]

Noticing a trend of some WAA precip developing ahead of the primary post-frontal snow shield Thursday AM...would be snow or maybe some sleet.

[STGOutdoors]

Dec 18, 2022 13:29:52 GMT -6 BRTNWXMAN said:

Noticing a trend of some WAA precip developing ahead of the primary post-frontal snow shield Thursday AM...would be snow or maybe some sleet.

I noticed that as well. Also indicative of a strengthening system.

[bdgwx]

It looks like a tick up on the 18Z NBM cycle. 5-6" through 120 hours for the metro area now.

[BRTNWXMAN]

12z GEFS mean looks like a good compromise between the OP GFS and EC with the SLP tracking up through Central KY and the h85 low tracking overhead. A little further SW trend and this thing goes full on KABOOM for the region.

[beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO]

I just have to be able to go over to msnotos (my daughter) house Saturday afternoon, so not much traveling for me. I haven't looked at the models, but if the cyclone bombs to our northeast, in theory to me, it seems like we could continue to have some wrap around snow showers for a while after the main show departs. Could even be some light clippers in the aftermath, I suppose. Leaving for the DFW metroplex for a quick trip on the 30th to celebrate a birthday, then coming back on the 31st to celebrate another birthday. I'll definitely be watching the models for that period of time once we get this storm out of the way.

[landscaper]

Nice model trends , someone mentioned the January 2014 storm, that was a beast probably the hardest snowstorm to fight in my 30 years of snow removal. The area had 10-13” the wind was t terrible until the end of the falling snow, then it really picked up once the low passed and wrapped up. We had 5-10’ drifts on lots, up near Edwardsville around all those huge warehouses it was brutal with the drift’s coming off all the building roofs, we plowed for 20 hours during the snow only to have everything drifted back shut within hours. I’ve never seen anything that bad in all my years, it took about a week to dig all the semi’s out with skid loaders and shoveling crews with snow blowers. The cold near and below zero caused equipment to gel up and freeze up as well.

[Spaz(Wrestlerdude)]

Crazy part of the gfs is 12z 114hr to 117hr takes metro from 10 to 19 inches. That’s 9 inches in 3 hours, or 3in/hr!! That’s some serious snow.

[BRTNWXMAN]

We "only" got 7 or 8" in 2014, but the drifting was the worst I had seen since 1996 and the temp crash after the snow moved out was incredible with a low of -11* I believe and a high of -3* that Monday with almost full sunshine. That's a benchmark storm for me for sure...and this one has good potential to top it.

[rb1108]

I would assume that even if snow amounts did not meet warning criteria, combined with the winds, dangerous cold, and it being a holiday, that a Winter Storm Watch could be possible early in the week?

[landscaper]

Yes this type of storm would most definitely warrant a Winter Storm watch and some type of warning. You take the bitterly cold temps , high winds and some amount of snow that will be blowing and drifting all over. As others have mentioned even 3-6” of snow would be a mess with the extreme cold and wind . Most models keep the wind up pretty high into at least later on Friday .

[beth930]

I was home from College in 1989 and my car that was only 2 years old would not start for days due to the extreme cold!

[giarC71]

Just a couple of questions. Any chance of Convection? Also what about dry slotting? Things that happen that aren't talked about yet?

[Snowman99]

from disco:

Not much has changed with respect to the upcoming blast of Arctic
air and potential for snow Wednesday into next weekend. Arctic air
oozes a bit into the area Tuesday night, but gets held up on
Wednesday as cyclogenesis begins and low level flow turns back to
the south-southeast. There`s still disagreement on when the cold
air will stop moving southward and how deep into the Arctic airmass
we`ll be Wednesday into Wednesday night. For instance, the 75th
and 25th percentile ensemble max temp forecast at KSTL on
Wednesday are 38 and 24 respectively. The variance is smaller on
Thursday, and smaller still Friday which is providing more
confidence in the temperature forecast...which is frigid. All
deterministic models and ensembles continue to develop a deep long
wave trough over the central U.S. which in turn forces
cyclogenesis along the low level baroclinic zone between the
Arctic air and warmer, more moist air over the southeast Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley. A strong surface low develops and
moves into the Ohio Valley by Friday. The tremendous pressure
gradient between the ~980mb low to our east and the ~1050mb Arctic
high to our west forces strong wind to develop across the
Mississippi Valley. 20-30kt sustained wind with gusts to 40kts
look likely at this point. With air temperatures plunging below
zero, wind chill values of -20 to -30 look increasingly likely.

Unfortunately the increased confidence in frigid temperatures, wind,
and wind chill has not translated into increased confidence in the
snowfall forecast. 12Z deterministic guidance is trending drier for
Wednesday night and Thursday morning ahead of the low, but wetter
behind the low Thursday afternoon into Friday. Ensemble mean
forecasts keep the majority of the precip between 06Z-18Z Thursday.
These differences will have a major impact on snowfall as the later
solutions of the deterministic guidance will have higher snow:water
ratios in the colder air behind the front. Drier/fluffier snow in
the Arctic air will also have the potential to blow and drift more
with the strong wind, and therefore cause greater impacts to travel
than a wetter snow in the relatively warmer air late Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. With this in mind, our precip forecast
remains at a lowered confidence level.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

18z Icon is solid for snow and extreme for cold.

[landscaper]

WSC you beat me to it, it looks way better than it’s previous runs

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Starting to see other regional NWS offices use the “B” word.

I can’t remember if this was just a rumor or if there was validity to it, but I seem to recall someone saying the NWS STL would be extremely unlikely to ever issue a blizzard warning following the GHD storm.

Not that it matters what terminology is actually used for actual impacts.

Excited to get in range tonight for the short range models.

[Chris Higgins]

Dec 18, 2022 15:30:59 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Starting to see other regional NWS offices use the “B” word.

I can’t remember if this was just a rumor or if there was validity to it, but I seem to recall someone saying the NWS STL would be extremely unlikely to ever issue a blizzard warning following the GHD storm.

Not that it matters what terminology is actually used.

There is some truth to that. And it makes sense since we have never met the criteria at any point in the observed historical record.

But the terms blizzard-like or near-blizzard conditions are still powerful wording that is available.

[cardsnweather]

18z might end up being even bigger.

[Snowstorm920]

18z GFS goes hard

[cardsnweather]

This low pressure system is like pulling an extremely strong rubber band back and just waiting for the opportune time to unleash as it digs and builds.

[Snowman99]

lol, wow

[cardsnweather]

My Lord. It’s close to 12z but just seeing it two runs in a row is something else.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

I approve of that run

[cardsnweather]

24:1 ratios with heavy snow lol

[weatherfan17- Denver, CO]

18z GFS goes KABOOM!!!

[Snowman99]

50-60 mph gusts, 12-20 inches of snow.

I'd sh*t myself

[jmg378s]

Dang...GFS ain't messing around.

[bdgwx]

It's pretty similar with the track but more intense. The surface low is a few mb lower and there's now a 129 vs 132 DM height min showing up at 850 mb at our benchmark location.

[BDS]

Dec 18, 2022 15:30:59 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Starting to see other regional NWS offices use the “B” word.

I can’t remember if this was just a rumor or if there was validity to it, but I seem to recall someone saying the NWS STL would be extremely unlikely to ever issue a blizzard warning following the GHD storm.

Not that it matters what terminology is actually used for actual impacts.

Excited to get in range tonight for the short range models.

I’m sure they’d hesitate a little more issuing a Blizzard Warning in the metro area where there isn’t as much of a concern for blowing snow as there is in rural areas, however they did issue one here in Central Missouri back in 2018 when it was a 2-5 inch predicted snowfall.

In an event like the potential this one has, I’d doubt they’d hesitate on a blizzard warning, even in the metro if the criteria and the resulting conditions were met.

[jeepers]

Dec 18, 2022 16:09:32 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

50-60 mph gusts, 12-20 inches of snow.

I'd sh*t myself

That adequately sums up my reaction.