|
|
Post by REB on Sept 26, 2022 11:34:18 GMT -6
Reb, I expect it to be breezy but dry in Atlanta Thursday. Increasing winds are limely there because of the tight pressure gradient between fall high pressure to the north and the approaching Ian. Savannah may well get into some of the outerbands Thursday... possibly as early as Thursday morning. Gusty winds and some severe weather cannot be ruled out in those bands. Safe travels! Thank you Chris. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2022 11:40:54 GMT -6
The 12z GFS would almost be comical if it wasn't so serious. But it has Ian paralleling the FL coast, taking a hard turn right into Tampa then stalling in just the right spot to keep pushing water into the bay for like a full day while it spins down. The operational runs is an outlier with its eastward track compared to the GEFS ensemble mean  |
|
woody
Weather Weenie
NoCoMo.. New Halls Ferry and Patterson
Posts: 47 
|
Post by woody on Sept 26, 2022 11:50:36 GMT -6
We returned on the 17th from our yearly vaca to Anna Maria Island... They will get clobbered from this hurricane I fear...
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 26, 2022 12:40:58 GMT -6
12z euro stalls Ian out just off the coast as well as a CAT 3.
That would do some major damage with the storm surge.
This one has the potential to get real ugly if it gets hung up.
If it just plows towards the panhandle the impacts would be pretty minor as models showing that solution project rapid weakening.
|
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on Sept 26, 2022 12:44:02 GMT -6
So just sent a ton of emergency stuff to my (eventually) future son in law. Can’t get a battery in Gainesville, not even from Amazon. I’m stressing more than the kids.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 26, 2022 14:04:39 GMT -6
CFS 768hr model shows our first flakes flying on 10/24!  |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 26, 2022 14:26:05 GMT -6
Looks like the hurricane has negatively impacted my travel plans for the end of October. The weekend of concerts we had planned to attend in the Destin area has been cancelled because their insurer has backed out and they can't find anyone else to cover the event. Fishy.
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 26, 2022 16:42:31 GMT -6
Watching the Discovery channel showing live the NASA asteroid impact mission. I'm surprised this hasn't happened sooner due to asteroid disaster movies.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2022 17:21:34 GMT -6
Tampa’s long run of avoiding a major surge into the bay could be coming to an end. Historically this worst case scenario has not really happened, but there’s some major potential here if it comes in at the right angle.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 26, 2022 20:04:40 GMT -6
What did you do to your foot, Chris?
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Sept 26, 2022 20:11:05 GMT -6
What did you do to your foot, Chris? Wondering the same thing. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2022 21:11:27 GMT -6
What did you do to your foot, Chris? Wondering the same thing. Strained achilles and followed that up with plantar fasciitis... in both feet! |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Sept 26, 2022 22:03:59 GMT -6
Lots of very different scenarios on Ian landfall. 3K Nam has an 877mb pressure, but way west in the Gulf. I guess with that strong of a system, it could go where ever it damn well pleases. Big differences for a fairly short time frame. Tough, tough forecasting with this kind of model support. GFS would be absolute worst case for Tampa. Ugly scenario this run.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 27, 2022 6:28:19 GMT -6
Lots of very different scenarios on Ian landfall. 3K Nam has an 877mb pressure, but way west in the Gulf. I guess with that strong of a system, it could go where ever it damn well pleases. Big differences for a fairly short time frame. Tough, tough forecasting with this kind of model support. GFS would be absolute worst case for Tampa. Ugly scenario this run. The 3k man is worthless for hurricanes. It always shows a sub 900mb record breaking hurricane because it lacks some of the key inputs the other models have. Somebody on here explained it well last year. It had something to do with the model not coupling with the ocean and upwelling. The models this morning mostly seem to have clustered with a landfall just south of Tampa. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 27, 2022 7:18:31 GMT -6
If it goes just south of Tampa, the surge into Tampa Bay would maybe not be quite as bad. A little bit west though and they are in trouble.
I'm really starting to get some Charley vibes from this storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Sept 27, 2022 7:57:50 GMT -6
Wondering the same thing. Strained achilles and followed that up with plantar fasciitis... in both feet! Take care of yourself. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 27, 2022 8:31:34 GMT -6
Wondering the same thing. Strained achilles and followed that up with plantar fasciitis... in both feet! Ugh.. I've had plantar fasciitis and that was painful enough by itself. Indeed, take care of yourself! |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 27, 2022 8:47:40 GMT -6
If it goes just south of Tampa, the surge into Tampa Bay would maybe not be quite as bad. A little bit west though and they are in trouble. I'm really starting to get some Charley vibes from this storm. That's the thing about Tampa, it takes just the right track from the W/SW north of the bay to get the onshore flow and surge. It seems like storms never want to take that track...but maybe this one will? |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 27, 2022 9:10:07 GMT -6
Looks like the track consensus is for the storm to approach the coastline at a shallow angle and keep the flow mostly offshore for Tampa. Hopefully that trend holds.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Sept 27, 2022 9:15:49 GMT -6
Yes... the track up along the coast looks like it most definitely will not happen. Front has made it well into the FL with Tds into the 50s south of Gainesville. I would not doubt if the center moves closer to Port Charlotte.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 27, 2022 9:27:55 GMT -6
Yea, that's what is reminding me about Charley with this one. Tampa was in the crosshairs a couple days out, then it took a hard right turn as it exploded in intensity. I wouldn't be surprised if this one follows nearly the same playbook.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Sept 27, 2022 9:53:35 GMT -6
Ian looks like one baaaaad m@er for. Wing just off of Cuba for a couple hours.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 27, 2022 10:13:00 GMT -6
Yea, that's what is reminding me about Charley with this one. Tampa was in the crosshairs a couple days out, then it took a hard right turn as it exploded in intensity. I wouldn't be surprised if this one follows nearly the same playbook. Charley was faster and more compact. Track and strength might be similar though. Charley will probably hold the strength edge at landfall. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 27, 2022 10:25:11 GMT -6
Ian is turning into an absolute monster right now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Cat 5 in the next update or two. Hopefully it can slow down and weaken off the Florida coast a bit before landfall.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 27, 2022 10:25:51 GMT -6
Ian has a very well defined core...once those outer bands wrap in the intensity should increase quite a bit over open warm waters.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 27, 2022 10:59:54 GMT -6
Latest HMON and HWRF have a solid CAT 4 at landfall.
HWRF is particularly brutal for Tampa, while HMON is further south.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 27, 2022 12:44:52 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 27, 2022 13:59:51 GMT -6
Latest scans show the eyewall trying to close off on the S flank...rapid deepening is possible this evening and overnight. It's fighting some dry air ingestion, but that's about the only thing holding it back at this point.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Sept 27, 2022 14:38:48 GMT -6
If you want to learn how to interrupt satellite, radar, recon, and other observations, use of models, and general tropical cyclone forecasting techniques this is the guy to watch. His videos are very accessible to almost everybody, but often he'll drop very esoteric details that over time can help build up a robust knowledge. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 27, 2022 17:27:41 GMT -6
Dang, confirmed tornado NW of Miami. Very clear velocity signature.
|
|
