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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2022 9:01:49 GMT -6
A blend of the 06z GFS and 00z EC operationals look awfully snowy for the Metro and points N...just saying
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 9:21:53 GMT -6
Yes, I agree with Brtn, if you could blend the GFS/Euro/Gem you would probably have a decent storm. I definitely don’t have a good feeling about this one. Nam at 84 looks to be just like the GFS and a cutter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2022 9:29:15 GMT -6
The EC seems like a decent compromise when you consider the cold bias of the GEM and how aggressive it tends to be with the boundary passage. I think the GFS is mishandling the energy transfer/phasing and is too far N...but it's thermo profile is colder than the EC which tends to be too warm at this range. The mid-level low ejection out of the Great Basin/4 Corners should be more Easterly given the large-scale synoptic pattern...which is very favorable for snowfall across much of the region. I like our odds with this one in the Metro. Southern sections may be out of luck this time though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 9:36:20 GMT -6
ICON still looks the same as it has for a few days now. Rain to a decent hit of backside ice and snow for most of the area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 10:12:17 GMT -6
12z gfs is amped and north.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 10:20:57 GMT -6
Gem still suppressed and flat , totally different looks
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Feb 13, 2022 10:28:39 GMT -6
I hope it only rains to nothing. That last storm was miserable for freight industry, ems, and road crews. Lets push the spring button. We all had our good snow for this season. One good snow does not make a winter for me, and probably several others on the board. If that's all we get "winter" gets an F from me, even for this area. Nebraska girl here. I am realistic about this area and its pitiful winters.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 10:30:59 GMT -6
GEFS is a little better than yesterday with it’s mean snow total going up some
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 10:34:36 GMT -6
12z gfs is amped and north. Operational run(blue L) seems to be on the northern side of its ensemble suite. Not egregious or anything
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2022 10:37:18 GMT -6
Ukie came south some
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2022 10:42:50 GMT -6
I know it’s too early for IMBY numbers- but can anyone tell how much snow for my next door neighbor’s backyard will get
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 13, 2022 10:49:27 GMT -6
I know it’s too early for IMBY numbers- but can anyone tell how much snow for my next door neighbor’s backyard will get I think 0-10 is a pretty safe bet at this point …….
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2022 10:49:51 GMT -6
I know it’s too early for IMBY numbers- but can anyone tell how much snow for my next door neighbor’s backyard will get Cooridinates?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2022 10:50:25 GMT -6
I hope it only rains to nothing. That last storm was miserable for freight industry, ems, and road crews. Lets push the spring button. We all had our good snow for this season. One good snow does not make a winter for me, and probably several others on the board. If that's all we get "winter" gets an F from me, even for this area. Nebraska girl here. I am realistic about this area and its pitiful winters. I take it you didn't live here in 2012?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 10:59:17 GMT -6
Southerners would like the 12z GEFS control run
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 10:59:26 GMT -6
2.7”
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 13, 2022 11:19:09 GMT -6
I hope it only rains to nothing. That last storm was miserable for freight industry, ems, and road crews. Lets push the spring button. We all had our good snow for this season. One good snow does not make a winter for me, and probably several others on the board. If that's all we get "winter" gets an F from me, even for this area. Nebraska girl here. I am realistic about this area and its pitiful winters. In Omaha so far this winter we have received about 7.8 inches. I think Norfolk and Lincoln may be a hair lower. You would hate it. After the season last year I am thankful, although I know it's because my husband is home and I don't have to shovel.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2022 11:24:22 GMT -6
Yes 2012 winter was the worst, that was an F. Honestly I give it an A this winter because we had a Solid warning storm across the board which only happens I feel every few years in our area.
I am sure its easier for me to give it an A than most because I am a bit easier to impress with the last 12 inch storm we had here in st.charles county, however I also take into consideration that most of january was pure winter with temps, and now we are in a see saw pattern but it gave us our big one, and potentially something may happen this week.
I would bet many across the board would still give this winter a solid C or B- making it for this area a very average like winter.
If we did not get the last storm yeas a D or F, however overall in my opinion not the worst winter in st.louis.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2022 11:33:09 GMT -6
2.7” Well my neighbor is a jerk and I won’t be able to measure in his yard anyway
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Feb 13, 2022 11:44:30 GMT -6
One good snow does not make a winter for me, and probably several others on the board. If that's all we get "winter" gets an F from me, even for this area. Nebraska girl here. I am realistic about this area and its pitiful winters. I take it you didn't live here in 2012? Been here since 1986. 2 decent events in February and March of 2013. I like consistent winter not sporadic. Again, I am realistic about STL winters vs Nebraska. I just miss it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 12:08:26 GMT -6
I take it you didn't live here in 2012? Been here since 1986. 2 decent events in February and March of 2013. I like consistent winter not sporadic. Again, I am realistic about STL winters vs Nebraska. I just miss it. STL area has about 12 inches on the season and averages 16-19 inches depending on what historical time period you use. That doesn’t correlate with an “F.” I think a C- is fair since there was a big storm and January was pretty cold. If there is another storm that drops 2-4 or 3-6 inches this turns into a very average winter around STL from a snowfall perspective. 2012 was an F.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 12:18:25 GMT -6
12z euro is going to be a big hit of ice and snow for STL
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2022 12:19:33 GMT -6
euro looks pretty good for metro on north
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 12:20:25 GMT -6
Euro is *chefs kiss*
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2022 12:22:30 GMT -6
yeah euro is egggggselent
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 12:23:35 GMT -6
yeah euro is egggggselent Get ready to ship me a steak
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 12:33:20 GMT -6
Can you guys post a snow map
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2022 12:36:10 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 12:45:30 GMT -6
I’d be good with a nice 4-8” quick hit
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 13, 2022 12:50:11 GMT -6
Gotta go with a C- and thats being generous, for the winter so far. Could still go down, and if we get another big storm, it could go up.. Only reason I didn't say D was because of the big snow and December tornado outbreak. Winter really only began late January and looks like it will pretty much be over after this week.
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