Chris's Corner - Valentines Day Week 2022

[landscaper]

Yes it has been very consistent the last few runs with low/precipitation placement and temps

[BRTNWXMAN]

I think it's likely models are shuttling this storm along too quickly...some runs move the SLP ~300mi in 6hrs...that's hard to believe.

While the winter aspect of this storm remains interesting, the severe aspect of it is starting to look pretty scary for parts of the Arklatex and Dixie. Helicity is maxed out within the warm sector/triple point with extreme low-level speed shear. Coupled with potentially 1500j/kg of CAPE and that's a recipe for an outbreak of strong tornadoes.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

00z gfs is good for the central and northern metro.

Starting to get some convergence here.

Gfs supports the Icon on this potential deformation zone being downright violent. Again, 2” per hour rates being advertised. With the forward speed of the storm and the pressure deepening that’s blizzard conditions within the band.

[landscaper]

It’s been consistent with its solution

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Feb 12, 2022 22:13:36 GMT -6 landscaper said:

It’s been consistent with its solution

Eh, it’s like 300 miles south from 36 hours ago and 150 miles south of 24 hours ago, but the conceptual makeup of the storm is similar.

[Frivolousz21]

There is definitely room for this to eject into the Mississippi river valley about 100 miles SE of where it is now.


The SE ridge starts to vacate and confluence can definitely sharpen to our of NE.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

00z gfs ensemble spread remains extreme. One member says you have to be in Green Bay to get snow from this storm 😂

I guess this setup is tougher for the models than the GHD storm.

[Snowstorm920]

GEFS has put the breaks on the flatter, quicker solution and is now showing a slower, more wrapped up system.

Mean SLP tracks across northern Arkansas up the Ohio river

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

00z ggem is still way south, but starting to at least show a real storm.

Meaningful ice storm for southeastern Missouri on this run.

[landscaper]

It still has a mean snow for the metro area 3-6” roughly 3” south 6” northwest areas , but yes it’s back to having a defined SLP this run. We would like a 75-100 mile south east shift would put us in a great spot. But not bad right now

[landscaper]

Gem is definitely better but not much for our area

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

00z Ukmet with a major shift north.

[Snowstorm920]

Feb 12, 2022 22:33:27 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

00z gfs ensemble spread remains extreme. One member says you have to be in Green Bay to get snow from this storm 😂

I guess this setup is tougher for the models than the GHD storm.

Ya a nice spread still on the GEFS. Not unexpected at this range though. 

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Snowstorm, do you know why COD only has 20 perturbed members, but you have 30?

[landscaper]

Ukmet jumped way north this run with a much stronger low pressure going right over St Louis

[Snowstorm920]

Feb 12, 2022 22:50:08 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Snowstorm, do you know why COD only has 20 perturbed members, but you have 30?

No idea. I have noticed the mean snowfall from COD is alittle different than other sites like WXBell and that would explain why. 

[BRTNWXMAN]

Feb 12, 2022 22:32:51 GMT -6 Frivolousz21 said:

There is definitely room for this to eject into the Mississippi river valley about 100 miles SE of where it is now.


The SE ridge starts to vacate and confluence can definitely sharpen to our of NE.

With that kicker wave digging in behind the primary shortwave...you'd expect the ejection to be more ENE or even nearly due E opposed to NE. The more jet energy digging into the trof, the less likely it is to go wagons North. The caveat is a weaker blocking surface ridge over the top this go around...so the boundary remains stubborn until the storm begins to pass and veer lower level winds. A stronger confluence across the N tier would help get the cold into place with a further S track, like you said.

I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the N half of the CWA will get a solid advisory level snowfall from this storm, including the Metro.

[Snowstorm920]

Euro is still pretty flat and would be a messy mix of ice and snow after rain

[BRTNWXMAN]

The majority of these model outputs for frozen precip really need to be taken with a large grain of salt. For some reason, they seem worse lately and struggle with figuring out what is actually falling and how that accumulates OTG. The FRZR output seems like the worst offender. The 4 panel above(EURO) shows a maxima of icing where the model has a void of snowfall across NE MO...that makes no sense whatsoever from a synoptic standpoint. It's purely a flaw in the modeling algorithm. QPF was always the worst facet of modeling and when you try to nail down P-types and amounts it gets real tricky to sort out apparently.

[cozpregon]

Feb 12, 2022 23:36:51 GMT -6 BRTNWXMAN said:

Feb 12, 2022 22:32:51 GMT -6 Frivolousz21 said:

There is definitely room for this to eject into the Mississippi river valley about 100 miles SE of where it is now.


The SE ridge starts to vacate and confluence can definitely sharpen to our of NE.

With that kicker wave digging in behind the primary shortwave...you'd expect the ejection to be more ENE or even nearly due E opposed to NE. The more jet energy digging into the trof, the less likely it is to go wagons North. The caveat is a weaker blocking surface ridge over the top this go around...so the boundary remains stubborn until the storm begins to pass and veer lower level winds. A stronger confluence across the N tier would help get the cold into place with a further S track, like you said.

I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the N half of the CWA will get a solid advisory level snowfall from this storm, including the Metro.

Have to agree at this point.  Seeing that 850 low in our sweet spot in a lot of runs over the past couple days.

[BRTNWXMAN]

Yep...the h85 track is pretty close to the wheelhouse. If this could dig a bit more and wrap up at the right time, it could go bananas and really dump some snow. But I still think the flatter/strung out look is more realistic and seasonal trend certainly argues for that. Fgen/meso banding will be critical to getting 6"+ amounts with a system like this...there's definitely potential for that. Like WSC said, some output is suggesting 1"/hr+ stuff during the strongest forcing.

[weatherj]

It looks like the 06z GFS has gone well north of the 00z run for the mid week system. It's much more in line with the 00z UKmet.

[Tilawn]

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022

The long wave pattern will translate east across the eastern U.S.
on Monday. Mid and upper level flow will become more zonal over
the central U.S. and heights will rise across the Mid Mississippi
Valley. This trend will continue through Tuesday as a weak upper
level ridge builds across the region and temperatures will rise
correspondingly. Guidance has been very consistent on temperatures
with highs rising into the 40s and 50s Monday and the mid 50s to
low 60s on Tuesday. Another blast of Arctic air will dip into the
Great Lakes and Upper Midwest Tuesday night and the southwest
periphery of this airmass will edge into the Mid Mississippi
Valley. This will push temperatures back down below freezing
Tuesday morning...but as mentioned above there will be a
significant warm up Tuesday afternoon as low level flow turns to
the south ahead of the next trough which will ultimately become
our Wednesday/Thursday storm system.

Speaking of the Wednesday/Thursday system, medium range guidance
continues to be very similar in handling the synoptic features of
this system...at least until 12-18Z Thursday. The short wave which
generates the system ejects from the Desert Southwest into the
southeast Plains by 12Z Thursday. Strong low level southwest flow
ahead of the approaching wave will produce moisture convergence on
Wednesday afternoon and and Wednesday night, and the short wave will
phase with a northern stream trough over Canada and the northern
Plains. This will allow another Arctic airmass to dive into the
Mississippi Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. Differences in the
guidance begin to show up as this occurs. Firstly, the GFS shows a
sharper and more distinct 300mb short wave than the EC between 12-
18Z Thursday. This wave in the GFS produces a stronger coupled jet
signature right over the Mid Mississippi Valley which enhances upper
level divergence. The EC`s 300mb pattern shows a more continuous
jet structure rather than the coupled northern/southern stream jets
of the GFS. I think the increased upper divergence and sharper
negatively tiled wave of the GFS produces a stronger, more wrapped
up closed low level system which moves more slowly than the open
wave low level system in the EC. Consequently, the GFS wraps a
deformation zone back into the cold air on Thursday producing quite
a bit more precipitation in the cold sector. For what it`s
worth...the CMC supports the faster EC solution.

Ensemble guidance at this point shows a wide range of solutions. The
GEFS snowfall accumulation plumes show range from 0 to over 12
inches at Lambert! That being said, there`s a distinct cluster of
solutions on the low end between 0 and 2 inches (operational GFS
outside of this range at around 5 inches). The NBM 25th/75th
percentiles are 0.5 inches and 2.8 inches respectively, again
showing a pretty wide spread. Other points show similar values in
both the NBM percentiles and the GEFS plumes with areas north and
east of the I-70 corridor showing somewhat higher amounts. However,
the wide spread in the ensembles, and lack of agreement between
deterministic models makes this a low confidence forecast at this
time.

Friday and Saturday continue to look dry and uneventful. Friday
morning`s lows look pretty chilly in the single digits and teens in
the wake of Thursday`s storm and cold front passage, but southerly
flow quickly returns to the Mid Mississippi Valley ahead of another
short wave and highs warm back into the mid 30s and 40s Friday
afternoon, and the 40s and low 50s Saturday.


Carney

[Tilawn]

I’d like to have one storm that only accumulates on the grass and elevated surfaces......those storms I can sit and enjoy!!

Can’t wait for this season to be done, as I’ll be downsizing my client list by 2/3rds next season.

[Frivolousz21]

The 06Z gfs is more amplified and digs less.


Its does look very realistic at the mid levels.


Historically speaking with what the gfs is showing at H5 would bring us rain to cold with flurries.


Maybe like Troy, Mo to the NW coukd get scraped by winter precip.


Even tho it's hard to tell but if the other models show a more phased system they will be further North as well

[Frivolousz21]

This is probably headed towards a classic no win situation for us.


To flat = more cold and less backside precip.

More phased =. Less cold, stronger deformation. Possible trowel over northern Mo.

[giarC71]

No one has talked about the ground temps being to warm? How much precip will melt on contact.

[Snowman99]

probably because we don't even know if it's going to snow or sleet or anything yet, lol

[ajd446]

I hope it only rains to nothing. That last storm was miserable for freight industry, ems, and road crews.

Lets push the spring button. We all had our good snow for this season.

[REB]

I need enough snow for my sister to try out her new snow blower.