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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 8:33:20 GMT -6
06z GFS showing the cold conveyor LLJ approaching 50kts over the region Thursday as the pressure gradient deepens with 30mph+ gusts potentially approaching 40mph in the open areas of central IL.
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Post by birddog on Jan 30, 2022 8:34:55 GMT -6
IF this event comes to fruition as modeled, is there a lot of wind with and or behind this system? 12" of snow and 12" of blowing snow are 2 completely different animals for us folks in the country. Thanks! Yes, there will be drifting with this. Especially if we get in on the heavy snow Thursday up this way which looks likely. Thanks Brtn! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 8:36:22 GMT -6
NAM goes from 40 to 33 from 6 PM to 12 PM Tuesday night downtown. Then falls below freezing by 1.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 8:38:43 GMT -6
NAM goes from 40 to 33 from 6 PM to 12 PM Tuesday night downtown. Then falls below freezing by 1. Definitely a pretty solid signal for a rapid cool down...the arctic air will not be denied |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 30, 2022 8:41:25 GMT -6
So is it safe to say as the storm continues with the dropping temps that they ratios will get better? I’d think we’d go from a pretty wet snow to a drier snow the deeper into this that we go. Am I wrong?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 8:41:48 GMT -6
Looks like NAM sets the main front band of snow just north of the metro with mixed precipitation probably sleet during the morning of Wednesday
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 8:43:48 GMT -6
So is it safe to say as the storm continues with the dropping temps that they ratios will get better? I’d think we’d go from a pretty wet snow to a drier snow the deeper into this that we go. Am I wrong? Yes. Obviously, most will have a period of sleet. Once we transition over to snow we should start to see 9:1 and 10:1 and then slowly upgrade to 13-15:1 at the end of the event. As most have alluded too, ratios are always tough to nail down and aren't always dependent on 2m temps. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 8:44:05 GMT -6
Looks like NAM sets the main front band of snow just north of the metro with mixed precipitation probably sleet during the morning of Wednesday Looks like the next wave of WAA is riding up 44 at hour 84. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 8:47:43 GMT -6
NAM is a sleet fest down this way. Seems reasonable.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 8:49:18 GMT -6
Yep, you can see it exploding in Oklahoma , I can honestly say I think for once we’re in a good spot to get a great storm. These type of storms definitely wear you out as a snow removal contractor, you will likely work from Tuesday night through Friday morning, salting/plowing/clean up and more salting. This storm will likely separate the men from the boys. All the companies that over book and take on to many sites with not enough manpower and equipment will really struggle
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 8:52:52 GMT -6
I'll remind everyone, at least in the southern half of the viewing area--never underestimate the warm wedge. It's shown itself over and over and over and over.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 30, 2022 8:54:57 GMT -6
So is it safe to say as the storm continues with the dropping temps that they ratios will get better? I’d think we’d go from a pretty wet snow to a drier snow the deeper into this that we go. Am I wrong? Yes. Obviously, most will have a period of sleet. Once we transition over to snow we should start to see 9:1 and 10:1 and then slowly upgrade to 13-15:1 at the end of the event. As most have alluded too, ratios are always tough to nail down and aren't always dependent on 2m temps. Thanks! I teach 6th grade science. I’m thinking of teaching the dynamics of a winter storm tomorrow and Tuesday since that may be the only days we get to school this week. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 9:01:02 GMT -6
RGEM and NAM both look solid through 84.
I predict the NAM at 00z tonight to have the most epic run we’ve ever seen though.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 30, 2022 9:06:31 GMT -6
Was that another chance at snow on the GFS for Feb 8th or am I wrong?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 9:09:51 GMT -6
When do you think NWS may issue a watch? Tonight or tomorrow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 9:26:50 GMT -6
I'll remind everyone, at least in the southern half of the viewing area--never underestimate the warm wedge. It's shown itself over and over and over and over. We will get our usual 2 inches of sleet and 4-6 inches of snow in a major storm…… I will take sleet over freezing rain anytime |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 9:27:30 GMT -6
ICON continues to go kaboom.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 30, 2022 9:30:51 GMT -6
When do you think NWS may issue a watch? Tonight or tomorrow I think in Monday... No sense in doing it today. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 9:31:19 GMT -6
When do you think NWS may issue a watch? Tonight or tomorrow sometime tomorrow |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 9:31:48 GMT -6
Rgem has 6-12” area wide by Wednesday at 6 haha.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 9:32:16 GMT -6
Yep most likely tomorrow morning at 4am I would think
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 9:37:32 GMT -6
Rgem has 6-12” area wide by Wednesday at 6 haha. My spidey senses are telling me there may be convection/TSSN potential Wednesday near the transitional zone. Models show mid-level lapse rates approaching 6*C/km with some very impressive UVMs being forecast and high QPF output. Need to dig into some soundings... |
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 30, 2022 9:41:45 GMT -6
I'll remind everyone, at least in the southern half of the viewing area--never underestimate the warm wedge. It's shown itself over and over and over and over. Just reading through the comments this morning during coffee, and had the same thought. Every storm is different, but have seen it several times over the years. I'll be under a 12+ inch snow forecast graphic on any given model, only to end up with 3-4 inches of sleet instead. Having said that, I'll thank my lucky stars if I get sleet instead of freezing rain. Should be a fun and interesting storm to watch unfold! Planning to dig out the generator and gas it up and dry run it today, just in case. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 9:45:09 GMT -6
Rgem has 6-12” area wide by Wednesday at 6 haha. My spidey senses are telling me there may be convection/TSSN potential Wednesday near the transitional zone. Models show mid-level lapse rates approaching 6*C/km with some very impressive UVMs being forecast and high QPF output. Need to dig into some soundings... NAM soundings definitely support that
Although this would technically be a thundersleet sounding
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2022 9:53:12 GMT -6
Rgem has 6-12” area wide by Wednesday at 6 haha. 6 AM or 6 PM? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 9:56:27 GMT -6
Rgem has 6-12” area wide by Wednesday at 6 haha. 6 AM or 6 PM? PM |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2022 10:00:17 GMT -6
As Chris has said a number of times when the models show excessively high numbers the initial forecast shouldn't be issued containing the “off the chart“ numbers. Even if the confidence is high. So don't be surprised when the NWS comes out with a forecast of 4 to 6 inches.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 10:03:51 GMT -6
As Chris has said a number of times when the models show excessively high numbers the initial forecast shouldn't be issued containing the “off the chart“ numbers. Even if the confidence is high. So don't be surprised when the NWS comes out with a forecast of 4 to 6 inches. They’ve already tossed some numbers out in the forecast grids for the initial part of the starm. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 10:03:53 GMT -6
that wave thursday morning on the gfs is a whopper
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 10:07:28 GMT -6
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