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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 10:08:55 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 10:15:44 GMT -6
NAM looks absolutely loaded at the end of it's run with 6-8"+ already on the ground across the N Metro...holy smokes. That final wave looks beefy on most models for sure...giving the potential for big double-digit totals near or within the Metro. Incredible setup.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 10:17:31 GMT -6
Thanks for the sounding drop, 920...definitely a nice pocket of CAPE there within and above the DGZ.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 10:21:46 GMT -6
920, you have a dM
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Post by REB on Jan 30, 2022 10:24:22 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 10:28:53 GMT -6
12z GFS certainly holding strong with good support from the NAM. Nice to have the NAM showing a colder solution, as it usually handles the arctic air better.
Might have to consider the B word with this one given the very tight pressure gradient that develops between the strong ridge and slowly deepening cyclone on Thursday. You'd typically want to see a deeper low for that, but the backside LLJ supports strong gusts and the GFS shows like 6hrs of gusts near 35mph up this way. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 10:29:34 GMT -6
Gem looks great on black and white charts , should continue its monster numbers
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2022 10:30:47 GMT -6
I look to find myself squarely in sleetville at the moment. Hopefully some heavy snow toward the end. That’s fine, keep the zr away. I’ve seen quite a few bouts of thunder sleet but it’s been some years.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 10:33:29 GMT -6
STG, I think you'll still get a good amount of snow on Thursday with the primary shortwave unless this shifts way north which I don't see happening. Maybe not 15"+ but still a solid storm. The ZR is too close for comfort for you guys down there too.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 10:41:26 GMT -6
12z gefs mean continues to look great for the metro.
12z ggem is off the charts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 10:43:17 GMT -6
Anybody else locked out of the NWS page?
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 30, 2022 10:43:31 GMT -6
WC what does ggem show
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 10:45:08 GMT -6
huge improvement on ukie, just a little more north and its golden
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 10:47:09 GMT -6
10-15 inches with isolated amounts up to 20. It’s on the extreme end of the spectrum. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 10:48:42 GMT -6
Anybody else locked out of the NWS page? i don't think you ever gave your top analog did ya? I can get on the nws page |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 10:52:40 GMT -6
It’s seems to me that the GFS shifted slightly back to the north
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 10:55:21 GMT -6
GEFS mean QPF us up to 2" in the metro
Mean snow/sleet depth is up to 14"
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 30, 2022 10:57:31 GMT -6
, but there were 12 foot drifts across the highway up on the prairie at Vichy. MODOT did a good job trying to keep hwy 63 open, but we were the last and or behind this system? 12" of snow and 12" of blowing snow are 2 completely different animals for us folks in the country. Thanks![/quote]
With that much snow and wind, we could see drifts in tens of feet. I remember a storm in like 83 or 84 when I was in school at Mizzou. I went with a friend back to his parents in Rolla for a weekend. Can't remember the exact amount of snow, but there were 12 foot drifts across the highway up on the prairie at Vichy. MODOT did a good job trying to keep hwy 63 open, but we were the last truck they let through.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 10:58:21 GMT -6
as others alluded, waa is typically underestimated in situations like this, and also as grizzlebear questioned a while back deep southern thunderstorms may inhibit the excessive moisture; a common occurrence in february. i would contain excitement pertaining to some of the higher modeled numbers and the message communicated that this is a potentially moderate to high impact system across the region. very difficult for st louis to not get sleet in storms like this, and i do think the waa is grossly underdone in this circumstance. adj, i wld say watch is likely by monday evenings pkg. some wfo in the area may issue earlier, but whether a watch exists or not for your location, shld not take away from the overall msg.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 11:04:24 GMT -6
Thank you beaker. I agree conservative approach, just like the sleetmageddon in 2011 we had like 6 to 7 inches of stuff when I lived in Ofallon it was like 3 to 4 inches of sleet then a few inches of snow, i can see a repeat of that for sure. While I would love a ton of snow that is a highly probable outcome as well as sleet takes forever to melt so ground would be covered a while.
I just hope the WAA is not soo strong we get a ton of freezing rain.
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Jan 30, 2022 11:06:33 GMT -6
as others alluded, waa is typically underestimated in situations like this, and also as grizzlebear questioned a while back deep southern thunderstorms may inhibit the excessive moisture; a common occurrence in february. i would contain excitement pertaining to some of the higher modeled numbers and the message communicated that this is a potentially moderate to high impact system across the region. very difficult for st louis to not get sleet in storms like this, and i do think the waa is grossly underdone in this circumstance. adj, i wld say watch is likely by monday evenings pkg. some wfo in the area may issue earlier, but whether a watch exists or not for your location, shld not take away from the overall msg. Beaker just taking a leak in everyone’s cheerios. 🤣😂. I guess having one realist in the group isn’t bad. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 11:12:12 GMT -6
some qstn abt drifts....this may help...the blizzard of 79, issued as a nowcast while thundersnow was in progress, and sustained winds in excess of 35 mph and gusts to 55....the revised forecast was for addl accums in excess of 12 inches, gusts to 8 ft, making major travel arteries impassible. we totaled 24 inches officially, and walking to the store, 8 ft drifts was abt rt. i wld think drifts more than that wld be rare. i saw an occasional drift nearly to the roof with some houses. the main story was bldg and awning collapses. i recall windward facing highway signs destroyed, particularly along I55 and along other north south arteries. to me that was a big deal.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 11:12:47 GMT -6
Don't think we need to worry about moisture with this one. The gulf is absolutely wide open for business
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 11:13:21 GMT -6
Beaker, are you still going with a cold rain and 1-2" of snowfall? Latent heat and all?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 11:14:32 GMT -6
as others alluded, waa is typically underestimated in situations like this, and also as grizzlebear questioned a while back deep southern thunderstorms may inhibit the excessive moisture; a common occurrence in february. i would contain excitement pertaining to some of the higher modeled numbers and the message communicated that this is a potentially moderate to high impact system across the region. very difficult for st louis to not get sleet in storms like this, and i do think the waa is grossly underdone in this circumstance. adj, i wld say watch is likely by monday evenings pkg. some wfo in the area may issue earlier, but whether a watch exists or not for your location, shld not take away from the overall msg. i don't think anyone here seriously thinks 20+ inches is going to happen We all know sleet is always an issue. We also know this is the 1st shot at anything decent in forever lol. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 11:15:38 GMT -6
as others alluded, waa is typically underestimated in situations like this, and also as grizzlebear questioned a while back deep southern thunderstorms may inhibit the excessive moisture; a common occurrence in february. i would contain excitement pertaining to some of the higher modeled numbers and the message communicated that this is a potentially moderate to high impact system across the region. very difficult for st louis to not get sleet in storms like this, and i do think the waa is grossly underdone in this circumstance. adj, i wld say watch is likely by monday evenings pkg. some wfo in the area may issue earlier, but whether a watch exists or not for your location, shld not take away from the overall msg. Beaker just taking a leak in everyone’s cheerios. 🤣😂. I guess having one realist in the group isn’t bad. im sorry abt that. just some things to think abt. to me, it seems like feb storms are particularly hard for models to depict and thus hard to predict. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 11:16:42 GMT -6
Beaker, are you still going with a cold rain and 1-2" of snowfall? Latent heat and all? the st. louis special. btw im just joking. but im going to need a lot of pencils and clocks for this storm. 😂 (brtn knows what im talking abt) |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 11:17:09 GMT -6
Anybody else locked out of the NWS page? i don't think you ever gave your top analog did ya? I can get on the nws page That would be Jan 30th, 1982
And I'm just going to assume that I'm locked out of all government websites at this point...lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 11:18:59 GMT -6
as others alluded, waa is typically underestimated in situations like this, and also as grizzlebear questioned a while back deep southern thunderstorms may inhibit the excessive moisture; a common occurrence in february. i would contain excitement pertaining to some of the higher modeled numbers and the message communicated that this is a potentially moderate to high impact system across the region. very difficult for st louis to not get sleet in storms like this, and i do think the waa is grossly underdone in this circumstance. adj, i wld say watch is likely by monday evenings pkg. some wfo in the area may issue earlier, but whether a watch exists or not for your location, shld not take away from the overall msg. i don't think anyone here seriously thinks 20+ inches is going to happen We all know sleet is always an issue. We also know this is the 1st shot at anything decent in forever lol. i dont think anyone on this forum thinks that, i agree. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 11:19:46 GMT -6
i don't think you ever gave your top analog did ya? I can get on the nws page That would be Jan 30th, 1982
And I'm just going to assume that I'm locked out of all government websites at this point...lol
have you tried your bank cards? |
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