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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 21:46:43 GMT -6
Has a heavy hit of snow, you have to watch its rain/snow line on tropical it’s always way off. It shows the green /rain at 12 degrees, that would not likely be happening, it would most likely be snow in the metro with that temp. It will be a monster run for the area , lots of ice and lots of snow Some models on Tidbits only show rain and snow and will show ice as just rain. That requires alittle matching up of the QPF and freezing line to see where it’s actually ice and not rain. Icon hasn't fully loaded for me yet but I am below freezing at 2m at Hr87 and stay below thru Hr117 and the 540 thickness line is still to my north. I don't have 850mb temps on TropicalTidbits but if that is all freezing rain, yikes. I would think at some point it would at least change to sleet. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 29, 2022 21:49:36 GMT -6
Some models on Tidbits only show rain and snow and will show ice as just rain. That requires alittle matching up of the QPF and freezing line to see where it’s actually ice and not rain. Icon hasn't fully loaded for me yet but I am below freezing at 2m at Hr87 and stay below thru Hr117 and the 540 thickness line is still to my north. I don't have 850mb temps on TropicalTidbits but if that is all freezing rain, yikes. I would think at some point it would at least change to sleet. Yeah it's impossible to tell on the Icon without soundings, but it is safe to assume there will be a zone of sleet south of the snow type. I suspect you'd have a transition to sleet with the freezing rain lasting longer further south. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 21:57:18 GMT -6
Icon hasn't fully loaded for me yet but I am below freezing at 2m at Hr87 and stay below thru Hr117 and the 540 thickness line is still to my north. I don't have 850mb temps on TropicalTidbits but if that is all freezing rain, yikes. I would think at some point it would at least change to sleet. It's impossible to tell on the Icon without soundings, but it is safe to assume there will be a zone of sleet south of the snow type. I suspect you'd have a transition to sleet with the freezing rain lasting longer further south. I would certainly prefer sleet over freezing rain. And to clarify, I would certainly prefer snow over sleet. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 22:00:10 GMT -6
GFS pushes the freeze line thru a few hours earlier on this run
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 22:00:37 GMT -6
I notice a slightly deeper 500mb trough at 60Hr with the 0z GFS vs. 18z GFS . Very slight but that should translate to a little cooler or further frontal passage.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:00:38 GMT -6
Looks like 3 to 6AM Wednesday to make the flip from rain to freezing rain and sleet, then snow by noon-3PM Wednesday, per the GFS. This is actually a bit faster than the 18 and 12Z runs. Each run has been speeding up the timing by 3 to 6 hours or so.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 22:02:45 GMT -6
I also notice the 0zGFS is more like the 0ZNam than it is the 18z GFS. That has to be a good early sign.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:03:39 GMT -6
Near 2" of QPF by 3PM Wednesday from the metro southeast. Geez. This is gonna be an insane run. Most of the energy still well back still.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:04:56 GMT -6
Approaching Midnight Thursday AM. And it looks like its about to go KABOOM!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 22:05:07 GMT -6
Diffluence yes...vector arrows of same length spreading out, but how do you know that there isn't a little bit of divergence: vector arrows of increasing length spreading out? As many on here know. Right entrance region of jet streak has divergence. Left entrance region of jet streak has convergence. Right exit region of jet streak has convergence. Left exit region of jet streak has divergence. What's leads to better lift for us and a better set up...divergence or diffluence? I'd think we would want more diffluence to help with better lift for our snow. Good point. I should have been more inclusive with my terms. There is both divergence (winds accelerating into the downstream jet streak) AND diffluence (winds spreading out). Divergence may actually be the bigger contributor in the entrance region, but both sum up to the removal of mass in the upper level and in order to maintain law of conservation of mass air below must rise to fill the void. The entrance region rules of thumb are for idealized straight jet streaks. If I recall correctly when the jet streaks have curvature the left and right quadrants don't matter has much (pretty sure there's a PhD dissertation from SLU on this but don't remember the citation). Yes the right entrance region of an anti-cyclonic downstream jet is definitely where you want to be for winter storms. Yeah I thought I'd get specific haha. Good to know! Yeah you're right, divergence is what we want for better lift for our snow. I thought diffluence bc Coz showed the NEer map and mentioned diffluence. Upper level divergence, other lifting mechanisms, and moisture supply are all important ingredients for our upcoming snow! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:07:04 GMT -6
We are going to be approaching 3" QPF in spots from this GFS run. Gets beefier every run.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 22:07:41 GMT -6
00z GFS is / going to be absolutely historic and epic! Might want to file that back in the archives haha.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:07:50 GMT -6
My goodness, this run is going to be biblical.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 22:07:52 GMT -6
The SW trough is a little faster on the 0Z GFS vs. 18z GFS and the northern vortex is a little slower somewhat like the Nam is showing. Not as much as the Nam but trending that way.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:08:02 GMT -6
GFS looks just a tick weaker compared to the 18z run so it should have the metro in a very good spot
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:08:26 GMT -6
GFS a little too south with the 'Deathband' of 2-3" Per Hour snows Thursday AM into Afternoon. South and east of the metro.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:08:39 GMT -6
I literally have no words. Please, come to fruition.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 22:08:42 GMT -6
whopper
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 22:09:25 GMT -6
One of the best looking runs on the 00z GFS. Wow...what a beaut!
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 22:09:44 GMT -6
Been toggling back and forth on 500mb charts between numurous runs. The way all of you are talking I'm heading to the snow map.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:11:53 GMT -6
GFS is pretty much perfect for the metro  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:12:31 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:12:59 GMT -6
Que 99's Moist picture...
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 22:13:36 GMT -6
Though you'd think sleet is definitely going to be an issue somewhere and we could all guess well...somewhere near the I-44 corridor in the metro haha. Those snow totals are fun to look at, but we all know how evil sleet is when it comes to accumulations.
Small thermal warm wedge please don't ruin our snow fun!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:14:38 GMT -6
I’m kind of disappointed… it’s only 17” instead of 20” from earlier:) just kidding. There is a very good model and ensemble consensus at this point. Wow fun to watch .
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 22:15:52 GMT -6
wow, nice for sure.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:16:21 GMT -6
Looks like the Kuchera ratio takes the sleet into effect. It shows 3/4/5:1 in the areas that are getting sleet late Wed night into Thursday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:16:40 GMT -6
I hope the euro comes in looking like the GFS
The 18z euro control run had a heavy hit of snow and ice with the lead shortwave but completely suppressed the main energy south of here Thursday
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 22:16:53 GMT -6
not my usual, but. The GFS sure is  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 22:17:06 GMT -6
Looks like the Kuchera ratio takes the sleet into effect. It shows 3/4/5:1 in the areas that are getting sleet late Wed night into Thursday. Wow that's insane we still get that much accumulation then! |
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