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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 18:15:03 GMT -6
Logan airport at Boston had 23.5" as of 6pm. I think their record for any storm is 27.6.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 29, 2022 18:26:43 GMT -6
Tons of moisture being forced into the baroclinic zone at nearly 60kts.  Holy cow! That’s a good look to gauge potential |
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Post by TK on Jan 29, 2022 18:43:18 GMT -6
Very worried about the sleet contamination...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 18:57:18 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2022 19:28:58 GMT -6
Very worried about the sleet contamination... You should be. |
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Post by yypc on Jan 29, 2022 19:29:11 GMT -6
Could this be the storm that breaks the february curse?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2022 19:29:22 GMT -6
All great SLU names on that paper. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 29, 2022 19:58:07 GMT -6
I will take sleet over freezing rain any day
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 20:05:54 GMT -6
Looks like Boston broke their daily snowfall record.
Everyone have their beverage of choice ready for 00z runs??
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 20:15:49 GMT -6
I got back home around 6pm and looked on Boston radar and was surprised/saddened to see the intensity drop off dramatically except over Fitzburg and Worcester. Looks like that band over them is re-intensifying. Are those gravity waves coming in from the northeast intensifying the band?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 20:30:34 GMT -6
oz NBM  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 20:38:31 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 20:39:01 GMT -6
Nice ! Snow man with the nice graphics, thanks for upgrading, keep the graphics coming!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 20:43:09 GMT -6
NAM looks beautiful. Steady as she goes.
Next up: ICON
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 20:45:06 GMT -6
It just the NAM outside its reliability window, but it looks pretty good. Quick changeover to snow Tuesday night in the metro with the initial WAA pulse
It looks like it's ready to take off at hr 84 with the main energy set to eject
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2022 20:45:31 GMT -6
I have noticed a slower 500mb northern wave coming across US/Canadien border. Vorticity wise it appears weaker, but, the trough out west appears deeper with more vorticity vs the 18z run. To my eyes anyway thru Hr69.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 20:53:14 GMT -6
NAM looks good, I’m surprised how cold it is and lack of sleet, it has 4-8” of snow by 6am Wednesday morning. That would be crazy . Looks like it has a ton of energy back about to eject out. Probably be a beast run for sure
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 29, 2022 20:59:39 GMT -6
I will take sleet over freezing rain any day So will Ameren and all the other utilities. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2022 21:01:51 GMT -6
NAM is obviously outside the reliability window... but the cold air starts to arrive near the end of the window... which is probably the most important thing right now.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 29, 2022 21:02:08 GMT -6
oz NBM Do those numbers include sleet? |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 21:14:51 GMT -6
Do those numbers include sleet? Short answer: Yes Long answer: The NBM is a blend of a several deterministic models and their ensembles. It uses several dynamic SLR strategies including Cobb 2005, Roebber 2003, max T, and critical thicknesses. Those NBM totals are likely to be among the most realistic available. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 21:15:19 GMT -6
you know, i'm not sure...probably
edit...what he said
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 29, 2022 21:20:39 GMT -6
you know, i'm not sure...probably edit...what he said LOL |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 21:23:03 GMT -6
Gorgeous  That is a beautiful anti-cyclonically curved outbound jet with us sitting in the ideal right entrance region area. Next frame on this run and that jet has pumped up to 225kts over lakes. Super strong, lots of difluence in the entrance. Diffluence yes...vector arrows of same length spreading out, but how do you know that there isn't a little bit of divergence: vector arrows of increasing length spreading out? As many on here know. Right entrance region of jet streak has divergence. Left entrance region of jet streak has convergence. Right exit region of jet streak has convergence. Left exit region of jet streak has divergence. What's leads to better lift for us and a better set up...divergence or diffluence? I'd think we would want more diffluence to help with better lift for our snow. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 21:23:24 GMT -6
RGEM looks almost identical to NAM in temps and precipitation, has 4-8” of snow/sleet from midnight Tuesday night through 6am Wednesday. Very heavy precipitation rates. Looks loaded as well for the rest of the event
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 21:25:58 GMT -6
ICON is very icy.
And absolutely juiced.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 21:31:34 GMT -6
Has a heavy hit of snow, you have to watch its rain/snow line on tropical it’s always way off. It shows the green /rain at 12 degrees, that would not likely be happening, it would most likely be snow in the metro with that temp. It will be a monster run for the area , lots of ice and lots of snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 21:40:56 GMT -6
Has a heavy hit of snow, you have to watch its rain/snow line on tropical it’s always way off. It shows the green /rain at 12 degrees, that would not likely be happening, it would most likely be snow in the metro with that temp. It will be a monster run for the area , lots of ice and lots of snow Some models on Tidbits only show rain and snow and will show ice as just rain. That requires alittle matching up of the QPF and freezing line to see where it’s actually ice and not rain. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 21:43:20 GMT -6
Yes I knew that, with its temp profile it would be a huge hit of sleet and snow
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 29, 2022 21:46:19 GMT -6
That is a beautiful anti-cyclonically curved outbound jet with us sitting in the ideal right entrance region area. Next frame on this run and that jet has pumped up to 225kts over lakes. Super strong, lots of difluence in the entrance. Diffluence yes...vector arrows of same length spreading out, but how do you know that there isn't a little bit of divergence: vector arrows of increasing length spreading out? As many on here know. Right entrance region of jet streak has divergence. Left entrance region of jet streak has convergence. Right exit region of jet streak has convergence. Left exit region of jet streak has divergence. What's leads to better lift for us and a better set up...divergence or diffluence? I'd think we would want more diffluence to help with better lift for our snow. Good point. I should have been more inclusive with my terms. There is both divergence (winds accelerating into the downstream jet streak) AND diffluence (winds spreading out). Divergence may actually be the bigger contributor in the entrance region, but both sum up to the removal of mass in the upper level and in order to maintain law of conservation of mass air below must rise to fill the void. The entrance region rules of thumb are for idealized straight jet streaks. If I recall correctly when the jet streaks have curvature the left and right quadrants don't matter has much (pretty sure there's a PhD dissertation from SLU on this but don't remember the citation). Yes the right entrance region of an anti-cyclonic downstream jet is definitely where you want to be for winter storms. |
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