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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 28, 2022 16:00:44 GMT -6
There will be plenty of convection if the northern shift continues lol.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 28, 2022 16:03:42 GMT -6
There will be plenty of convection if the northern shift continues lol. I don't care who you are.. that's funny right there! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 28, 2022 16:04:46 GMT -6
I vote we pretend the 18z Icon run didn’t happen. Way, way, way north. Within the envelope of possibilities, but definitely at the extreme that run. Since some if the models had a northern trend. I'd suspect they will continue that with their 18z data. Let's just expect that before we go crazy and fall off the deep end. Might even be the same for 00z. But in the end let's just hope they come back further south a bit. Icon needs a big adjustment south with the first wave. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 16:09:32 GMT -6
No northern shift on the 18z GFS
Coming in looking similar to the euro
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 16:09:51 GMT -6
gfs isn't north lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 16:10:13 GMT -6
dammit 920 lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 16:11:55 GMT -6
Colder by a decent amount compared to 12z run
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 16:14:36 GMT -6
over .75 the first wave...all ice
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 16:18:24 GMT -6
Amazing we’ve yet to have a single run where the rug gets pulled. Steady as she goes.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2022 16:19:15 GMT -6
Probably going to continue to see these wobbles in the boundary position and the timing and strength of the waves involved for the next few days. That doesn't even factor in the thermal profile across the region. Fun stuff!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2022 16:23:02 GMT -6
Amazing we’ve yet to have a single run where the rug gets pulled. Steady as she goes. The good news is that the strength and orientation of the surface ridge over the top and even out front of this storm really blocks it from coming too far north...as does slowly falling heights across the Upper Midwest/Canada border as the vortex starts to descend equatorward anchoring the longwave trof. There isn't a whole lot of wiggle room to come way north...but we've seen how even subtle shifts can really affect the outcome in any one location. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 16:23:54 GMT -6
Yep, I’m sure there will be some good NWS snd some bad ones as long as they all don’t trend bad we’re all good . Definitely probably our best shot at a good storm in the past 3 years
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2022 16:27:22 GMT -6
Eye candy time... Gotta love this from the Euro for STL. Good eye candy here... and not something I've seen very often. Too bad we are still on the edge of fantasy land with our "Watcher" system. But it sure is nice to see. Already taking tumms for when it pulls the rug out from under us on the next run and drops to 1".... because that's how these things go  What a dream that would be if this actually played out for snow lovers! Who knows... it's definitely going to be a fun weekend watching model runs, new data and starting the fine tuning process! Who knows, maybe this is exactly what will happen. We can dream and hope  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 16:32:56 GMT -6
Gfs is definitely colder. Not showing our notorious 32° ice/rain where we know it’s going to be 33° and rainy. HP doing it’s job.
With WAA always coming in ahead of schedule, you’re looking at potential ice as early as late Tuesday night.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 16:48:46 GMT -6
35 years ago it was at this point I'd flip from Bob Richards to Ron Yaros to whoever was on ch 4 and try to see all the forecasts at the same time, lol.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 28, 2022 17:01:41 GMT -6
A friend in central Maine is rolling his eyes at the TV weather folks that are using the term “biblical“ to describe their storm.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 28, 2022 17:18:21 GMT -6
Anyone know the day(s) are for the 40th year anniversary of the ‘82 Blizzarrd?
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 28, 2022 17:31:58 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 28, 2022 17:36:45 GMT -6
I was just looking at Bostons forecast when I noticed they have two days of rain forecast for the end of next week….. that could be devastating with 2-3 feet of snow on the ground …. The weight on roof tops could be brutal
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Post by TK on Jan 28, 2022 17:49:49 GMT -6
WHERE IS FRIV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 28, 2022 18:45:40 GMT -6
I was just looking at Bostons forecast when I noticed they have two days of rain forecast for the end of next week….. that could be devastating with 2-3 feet of snow on the ground …. The weight on roof tops could be brutal And a bunch of flooding of rivers, creeks, streets, etc. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 19:14:21 GMT -6
19Z NBM 25-75th percentile interval is 0.2" to 6.8" next week. The 50th percentile is 2.1". The S product forecast is 3.9". I'm not sure why the 50th percentile and the S product forecast differ, but I suspect it is because the S product is a mean whereas the 50th percentile is a median. I'm just reporting what it says. For brevity in the future I'll report it in the following format.
1/28 19Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 0.0" to 10.9"
25-75% = 0.2" to 6.8"
50% = 2.1"
S = 3.9"
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 28, 2022 19:17:52 GMT -6
Another good one from the 18z euro ensemble. Beautiful Memphis low starting to take shape on the mean run
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 19:25:04 GMT -6
Another good one from the 18z euro ensemble. Beautiful Memphis low starting to take shape on the mean run In typical STL fashion, the 0C surface temp line perfectly bisects the metro for the first punch of WAA precep. Couldn't draw it anymore perfect
The kicker energy looks beautiful though.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 28, 2022 20:33:24 GMT -6
I keep asking myself the title of this thread. I’ve had 2 dustings this season.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 20:44:11 GMT -6
I think if a major storm is still in the cards come Early week, Chris will have a spankin new thread.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 20:45:11 GMT -6
That storm starting to crank off the east coast..lightning strikes off the North Carolina coast. Gonna be a beast.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2022 20:53:10 GMT -6
I think if a major storm is still in the cards come Early week, Chris will have a spankin new thread. That's a good bet. "Ground Hog's Day Storm.2 - Can it Happen Again?" (that being... can STL find yet another new way to NOT get snow? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 28, 2022 20:54:21 GMT -6
Yep looking nice. That diffluence along the Gulf Stream  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 20:55:44 GMT -6
good title, or GHD 2.0 The Revenge
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