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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 10:55:45 GMT -6
Yes it’s ugly, all rain 35-45 with maybe 1-2” of snow and no secondary storm
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 10:56:08 GMT -6
UKmet has 1.5" of liquid and still going strong. All with temps sub 30. Also, why do I feel like UKmet used to come out around 11:30? Not 10:30 Day light savings time… Maybe... Didn't have that problem with any other model lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 10:56:08 GMT -6
I like seeing those 12" opening acts before the main show. I'd give up winter next year to have that UKMET run actually play out. Very nice 500mb vort ready to take things to a whole other level at hour 144. I wish it went out another 24 hours. I used to be able to use the ukmet as a proxy for the euro, but over the last year or so, I’ve noticed them diverge more and more at least for our sensible weather. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 10:56:33 GMT -6
I do love the Ukmet , has it performed very well this season?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 10:59:14 GMT -6
I do love the Ukmet , has it performed very well this season? Ukie is a good model Last I saw it and the GFS were tied for the second highest verification scores behind the euro |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 10:59:38 GMT -6
i'd likely sh1t myself if uncle ukie was right.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 11:03:34 GMT -6
Choose your fighter  |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 28, 2022 11:03:58 GMT -6
Where can one find the precip maps for UKMET?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 11:06:33 GMT -6
Where can one find the precip maps for UKMET? Pivotal Weather. This is what it looks like at hour 144 after more than 1" of sub-32F QPF has already fallen.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 11:07:02 GMT -6
Where can one find the precip maps for UKMET? pivotal...it doesnt have precip type though |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 28, 2022 11:07:51 GMT -6
Yes it’s ugly, all rain 35-45 with maybe 1-2” of snow and no secondary storm But you cant ignore that because that is what I refer to as the St. Louis classic. Little diurnal temp change and a prolonged precip event with an elevated warm layer that rain drops pull down to the surface keeping the temp above freezing. pretty much how i describe winters around here. The 1 to 2 inches of snow is abt rt for feb but such a classic in december might be just a hard frozen ground, and the big impact is more abt temps than frozen precip. i seem to recall mid 1990s when columbia got 19 1/2 inches of snow and st louis got..."the classic". no im not bitter at all abt that. i remember we got like 3 pings of sleet in ofallon that whole time. the news sent a crew to Foristell and showed us the big flakes of snow falling. nope, not bitter. |
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47 
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Post by Raja72 on Jan 28, 2022 11:13:18 GMT -6
Yes it’s ugly, all rain 35-45 with maybe 1-2” of snow and no secondary storm But you cant ignore that because that is what I refer to as the St. Louis classic. Little diurnal temp change and a prolonged precip event with an elevated warm layer that rain drops pull down to the surface keeping the temp above freezing. pretty much how i describe winters around here. The 1 to 2 inches of snow is abt rt for feb but such a classic in december might be just a hard frozen ground, and the big impact is more abt temps than frozen precip. i seem to recall mid 1990s when columbia got 19 1/2 inches of snow and st louis got..."the classic". no im not bitter at all abt that. i remember we got like 3 pings of sleet in ofallon that whole time. the news sent a crew to Foristell and showed us the big flakes of snow falling. nope, not bitter. Now this could be the tshirt. Lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 11:15:29 GMT -6
The GEFS has a mean QPF in the metro of 1.15” with roughly .55” of that falling with surface temps below freezing
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 11:16:54 GMT -6
Also of note, the mean low Friday morning is -3°F
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 11:22:40 GMT -6
That’s a lot of rain, I would rather see it trend colder with less qpf, I would really hate to have another monster rain storm and 33-35 degrees while it dumps just north west of us.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 11:29:33 GMT -6
Just made the mistake of look at the Ukmet snowfall map. My goodness gracious. That's with more still to come.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 11:31:53 GMT -6
That’s a lot of rain, I would rather see it trend colder with less qpf, I would really hate to have another monster rain storm and 33-35 degrees while it dumps just north west of us. Honestly, I went pretty conservative with that .55” Its close to having nearly all the QPF falling with surface temps below freezing. Kind of interesting that the QPF on that run went up from the 06z run but it also trended colder as well. Hopefully that trend continues |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 28, 2022 11:32:18 GMT -6
The Ukie has not been great this year. Though that was with the measly turd systems we've had to track thus far, and this is a whole different beast altogether.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 11:40:59 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles mean 10:1 snowfall looks pretty good Very close to what the GEFS is advertising  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 11:48:57 GMT -6
Just made the mistake of look at the Ukmet snowfall map. My goodness gracious. That's with more still to come. To be fair that is using the sub 32F 10:1 rule. I suspect some of that QPF falls as ZR or IP. But yeah, it's > 1" of QPF that falls as some type of frozen form. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 11:50:41 GMT -6
wonder what average ratios will be.. would think 10-1 right after changeover. If that trailing shortwave comes thru..maybe 15 or 18-1?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 11:57:32 GMT -6
The Cobb data off the 12z GFS has a cumulative SLR of 13:1
Not as high as I thought considering the cold behind the system
Snow ratios are a very fickle thing to nail down
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 12:29:27 GMT -6
euro still has a good icer here wed morning..
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 12:31:06 GMT -6
Euro should be a beautiful run
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 12:31:34 GMT -6
Closer to the Ukmet
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 12:32:08 GMT -6
That’s a lot of freezing rain on the euro sheesh
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 12:34:15 GMT -6
Wow, wave #1 is a huge hit and then it has a very well defined wave #2 that should put this run in the max impact category for the region. Very impressive run right there.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 12:36:29 GMT -6
Ukie and euro sure are beefy
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Post by amstilost on Jan 28, 2022 12:37:48 GMT -6
Euro sure looks like several of the GEFS that Snowstorm posted earlier. I personally would have liked to see a little more southern start to the frozen precip at this stage but not going to be picky, just yet. This looks like an awesome system for the 'area' at this point.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 12:38:37 GMT -6
QPF is 2”+ area wide.
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