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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 22, 2022 20:08:42 GMT -6
That's interesting. And weird. Makes sense...UPS has a central hub with forecasters. Good logistics require knowledge of weather across their territory. Talk about a high stress position. My vote is for something like this. 10 or 15 years ago Amazon didn't have their own airplanes or trucks. Look how many they have now. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2022 21:36:47 GMT -6
I looked the other day at some of the teleconnection indices, and they were trending unfavorable for wintry weather in the early february timeframe. Of course, things may have changed. I really wish I could see the EPO. As for Meteorologists in the commercial sector, I'm glad to see the commercial sector growing in this field. I would love to take my IT skills to support such a role. I'm a data modeler for a financial services firm (a data modeler designs databases, data flows, and is the final line of defense in data security). I always found it interesting that we've had a few former meteorologists reskilled in data modeling working for us over the past couple decades. I remember one of them would tell me stories about flying into hurricanes. I personally would not mind closing out my last few remaining years in some kind of a back office support role. I'm a bit more passionate in longer range trends, than I am in short term weather, and I see a lot of value in providing input into longer term business decisions of a commercial entity. At any rate, the growth in the commercial sector tells me that companies are investing money into specialized weather forecasting products specifically for their line of business, and I think that is good, and needed, for both short term and long term. Looks like the blocking over the gulf of Alaska will be breaking down during the first week or so of February. At least that’s what is being forecast. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2022 8:44:32 GMT -6
Got about 4 inches of diamond dust on the northwest side of Chicago.
Hope we all have some snows like this over the next few weeks.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2022 8:48:04 GMT -6
The pattern looks awfully ice storm-ish towards GHD or a little after. Definitely a pattern change looming with a flip in the PNA allowing a lot of energy and moisture to work in underneath the oozing arctic air. Big time overrunning pattern.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2022 8:53:44 GMT -6
I looked the other day at some of the teleconnection indices, and they were trending unfavorable for wintry weather in the early february timeframe. Of course, things may have changed. I really wish I could see the EPO. As for Meteorologists in the commercial sector, I'm glad to see the commercial sector growing in this field. I would love to take my IT skills to support such a role. I'm a data modeler for a financial services firm (a data modeler designs databases, data flows, and is the final line of defense in data security). I always found it interesting that we've had a few former meteorologists reskilled in data modeling working for us over the past couple decades. I remember one of them would tell me stories about flying into hurricanes. I personally would not mind closing out my last few remaining years in some kind of a back office support role. I'm a bit more passionate in longer range trends, than I am in short term weather, and I see a lot of value in providing input into longer term business decisions of a commercial entity. At any rate, the growth in the commercial sector tells me that companies are investing money into specialized weather forecasting products specifically for their line of business, and I think that is good, and needed, for both short term and long term. Looks like the blocking over the gulf of Alaska will be breaking down during the first week or so of February. At least that’s what is being forecast. The MJO seems to support that with it forecast to reemerge into the 4/5 quadrant which is typically a "battle ground" pattern for the Central US/Midwest. Definitely a good signal for overrunning potential. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2022 10:43:13 GMT -6
The pattern looks awfully ice storm-ish towards GHD or a little after. Definitely a pattern change looming with a flip in the PNA allowing a lot of energy and moisture to work in underneath the oozing arctic air. Big time overrunning pattern. EPS is showing a strong signal for a TX panhandle low in that timeframe. Where it goes from there is anybody's guess, but with that high pressure over SE Canada looks like a good overrunning setup for the middle of the country
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2022 12:33:09 GMT -6
Thankfully the temperature was pretty mild. Went downstairs about 10 this morning, and my backdoor was open. Guessing somebody in my house went outside overnight and didn't make sure it was completely shut and the north wind must've blown it open. Furnace works. LOL You can blame me and my furnace for the warm weather. Not a good thing with rising gas prices.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 23, 2022 12:48:46 GMT -6
Thankfully the temperature was pretty mild. Went downstairs about 10 this morning, and my backdoor was open. Guessing somebody in my house went outside overnight and didn't make sure it was completely shut and the north wind must've blown it open. Furnace works. LOL You can blame me and my furnace for the warm weather. Not a good thing with rising gas prices. Found the door to my unheated, north facing garage open this morning as well. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2022 13:28:40 GMT -6
12z euro and ggem look good in the day 8-10 range. 12z gfs needs a little work, but has looked good in recent runs.
Hopefully, we get some things to track by the end of this week.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jan 23, 2022 13:56:42 GMT -6
Thankfully the temperature was pretty mild. Went downstairs about 10 this morning, and my backdoor was open. Guessing somebody in my house went outside overnight and didn't make sure it was completely shut and the north wind must've blown it open. Furnace works. LOL You can blame me and my furnace for the warm weather. Not a good thing with rising gas prices. Found the door to my unheated, north facing garage open this morning as well. Our overhead north facing garage door was 4' above floor this morning. I closed the door myself with the wall switch last night. Still trying to figure out why. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -6
Obviously the ghosts decided to come out last night throughout the area and mess with people.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 23, 2022 16:20:45 GMT -6
Obviously the ghosts decided to come out last night throughout the area and mess with people. I’ve given my ghosts names. Oddly enough, they are the same names as my kids. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2022 19:48:30 GMT -6
Another boring week of cold and dry, this a rough winter. Hopefully something can happen around day 9-10 , my fear is after two weeks of below normal temps we warm up enough to be all rain as we start getting a parade of storms .
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 24, 2022 7:54:38 GMT -6
You know things are bleak when you go 12 hours without a post in January.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2022 8:51:17 GMT -6
A few models are showing a small chance of light snow Thursday morning, maybe one of those dusting to 1/2” type situations
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2022 9:19:19 GMT -6
Looks like the east cast yearly “once in a lifetime” snowstorm will happen this weekend
I was getting worried they weren’t going to get one this year
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 24, 2022 9:38:29 GMT -6
Looks like the east cast yearly “once in a lifetime” snowstorm will happen this weekend I was getting worried they weren’t going to get one this year Every flake that falls out there is historic in some way. So much sensationalism out that way. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2022 9:39:13 GMT -6
How much, WSC?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2022 9:48:56 GMT -6
Had about 4 inches with clipper #1 Saturday night and look to have about 2 more inches so far with clipper #2 this morning with light snow still coming down. Ratios were really kind to me (20:1 type stuff). It finally looks like winter up here, so hopefully we all get in on it soon |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2022 10:08:37 GMT -6
Had about 4 inches with clipper #1 Saturday night and look to have about 2 more inches so far with clipper #2 this morning with light snow still coming down. Ratios were really kind to me (20:1 type stuff). It finally looks like winter up here, so hopefully we all get in on it soon Right on. I've got my eyes squarely set on that early Feb/GHD period. That's looking like our first real potential for a significant winter storm this season, IMO. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2022 10:34:35 GMT -6
I agree it’s the first real southern storm , Hopefully it’s not too warm and all rain, definitely our best chance of a storm, the cold air is still what’s in question, very marginal at best on some models
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2022 10:38:51 GMT -6
Gotta love the gfs with temps well into the 50 and rain with the storm next week. Euro was a Rainer too last night. This never fails. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2022 10:42:44 GMT -6
Gotta love the gfs with temps well into the 50 and rain with the storm next week. Euro was a Rainer too last night. This never fails. Lol I’m worried that one is going to cut to far north for us. Ensembles are suggesting it ejects near the panhandle and turns sharply NE towards the Great Lakes. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2022 10:47:23 GMT -6
I agree it’s the first real southern storm , Hopefully it’s not too warm and all rain, definitely our best chance of a storm, the cold air is still what’s in question, very marginal at best on some models Huge variability with the models for sure. The freezing line on the 00z EPS is like 1000 miles between the coldest and warmest members. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2022 10:48:33 GMT -6
Gotta love the gfs with temps well into the 50 and rain with the storm next week. Euro was a Rainer too last night. This never fails. Lol I’m worried that one is going to cut to far north for us. Ensembles are suggesting it ejects near the panhandle and turns sharply NE towards the Great Lakes. I suspect this will trend towards more of a flatter/piecemeal ejection system...but we'll see. That's certainly not out of the question. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2022 10:50:26 GMT -6
I’m worried that one is going to cut to far north for us. Ensembles are suggesting it ejects near the panhandle and turns sharply NE towards the Great Lakes. I suspect this will trend towards more of a flatter/piecemeal ejection system...but we'll see. That's certainly not out of the question. At least the gfs has more cold air and energy ejecting out behind that cutter. I don’t think this is a one and done situation. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2022 10:54:48 GMT -6
I suspect this will trend towards more of a flatter/piecemeal ejection system...but we'll see. That's certainly not out of the question. At least the gfs has more cold air and energy ejecting out behind that cutter. I don’t think this is a one and done situation. Yep...and that's what most ensemble runs suggest looking at the mass field means. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2022 10:55:30 GMT -6
The east coast mets are starting to get all giddy. I wish Chris would get giddy. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2022 11:22:09 GMT -6
I’m worried that one is going to cut to far north for us. Ensembles are suggesting it ejects near the panhandle and turns sharply NE towards the Great Lakes. I suspect this will trend towards more of a flatter/piecemeal ejection system...but we'll see. That's certainly not out of the question. The ridge placement ahead of the trough definitely isn’t ideal for us. We really need the ridge to flatten over the eastern US so the system won’t be so prone to cutting and so we aren’t flooded with prolonged WAA ahead of the system. Like WSC mentioned, maybe this first system can act as a stage setter for energy trailing behind. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2022 11:26:39 GMT -6
Had about 4 inches with clipper #1 Saturday night and look to have about 2 more inches so far with clipper #2 this morning with light snow still coming down. Ratios were really kind to me (20:1 type stuff). It finally looks like winter up here, so hopefully we all get in on it soon Gonna show any pics of your winter wonderland so we can all enjoy? |
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