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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 10:24:19 GMT -6
12z models are throwing a bone to the southerners with the potential for a couple inches Wed. night. That would be a nice surprise. It's possible that sneaks JUST far enough north...might be worth keeping an eye on for you guys in SE MO and far S IL. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2022 10:35:22 GMT -6
12z models are throwing a bone to the southerners with the potential for a couple inches Wed. night. That would be a nice surprise. It's possible that sneaks JUST far enough north...might be worth keeping an eye on for you guys in SE MO and far S IL. Yea I think it is. The nam especially is maintaining the vort a little bit instead of ripping it to shreds. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2022 10:58:10 GMT -6
GEFS is showing likely POPS of snow across the southern counties Wed night. Could see some minor accumulations from that  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 11:02:34 GMT -6
It's possible that sneaks JUST far enough north...might be worth keeping an eye on for you guys in SE MO and far S IL. Yea I think it is. The nam especially is maintaining the vort a little bit instead of ripping it to shreds. The NAM seems to be on it's own in showing an organized shortwave and frontal disturbance though. Models show some low/mid-level Fgen developing but the large-scale lift just isn't well organized on most model runs. We'll see how it trends though. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 17, 2022 11:17:47 GMT -6
Surprising to see very little to no snow on the mountains along the west coast through the 12z 15 day run.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 11:21:00 GMT -6
Surprising to see very little to no snow on the mountains along the west coast through the 12z 15 day run. +PNA pattern will definitely shut off the atmospheric rivers for much of the W Coast. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 17, 2022 11:29:51 GMT -6
Surprising to see very little to no snow on the mountains along the west coast through the 12z 15 day run. +PNA pattern will definitely shut off the atmospheric rivers for much of the W Coast. I was just reading how the +PNA pattern includes cold/storms for the southeast. I tried looking up Atlanta's snowy years and any analog to our weather but couldn't find any snow history on Atlanta's climate page. I was also reading how the NAO was mainly negative from the 50's until the winter of 78-79. I will paste some of that reading. From CPC NAO page..... For example, the negative phase of the NAO dominated the circulation from the mid-1950's through the 1978/79 winter. During this approximately 24-year interval, there were four prominent periods of at least three years each in which the negative phase was dominant and the positive phase was notably absent. In fact, during the entire period the positive phase was observed in the seasonal mean only three times, and it never appeared in two consecutive years. An abrupt transition to recurring positive phases of the NAO then occurred during the 1979/80 winter, with the atmosphere remaining locked into this mode through the 1994/95 winter season. During this 15-year interval, a substantial negative phase of the pattern appeared only twice, in the winters of 1984/85 and 1985/ 86. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 11:31:52 GMT -6
+PNA pattern will definitely shut off the atmospheric rivers for much of the W Coast. I was just reading how the +PNA pattern includes cold/storms for the southeast. I tried looking up Atlanta's snowy years and any analog to our weather but couldn't find any snow history on Atlanta's climate page. It can be good for us too but usually when it combines with a -EPO. A typical +PNA brings mostly clippers with the occasional S low when cut off energy ejects out of the SW like models hint at next week. But it definitely favors the SE/EC overall. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 17, 2022 11:38:36 GMT -6
I sure wish there was a 'go to' teleconnection to reliably 'forecast' an upcoming season. Just seems that everything that you can point to has a caveat of some sort or another. I guess if it was easy, everyone would be doing it.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2022 11:47:53 GMT -6
Hopefully we catch a few clippers or else it’s going to suppress city . The south and East coast look to get a ton of winter storms
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2022 12:35:52 GMT -6
Euro sure is upping the ante for a Carolina ice storm late this week. Perhaps all the way down to Charleston, supporting what the GEM has been showing for days.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 12:49:57 GMT -6
Euro sure is upping the ante for a Carolina ice storm late this week. Perhaps all the way down to Charleston, supporting what the GEM has been showing for days. I haven't heard any reports from this last storm...did the severe icing verify in the Carolinas? Seemed like there was an awfully pronounced warm wedge with that storm the whole way, really. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2022 12:58:08 GMT -6
Main, the big three globals are sure dry for the next 7-10 days , hopefully something changes it’s going be rough being cold for a week or two with no precipitation
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2022 13:01:30 GMT -6
Euro sure is upping the ante for a Carolina ice storm late this week. Perhaps all the way down to Charleston, supporting what the GEM has been showing for days. I haven't heard any reports from this last storm...did the severe icing verify in the Carolinas? Seemed like there was an awfully pronounced warm wedge with that storm the whole way, really. The highest report I could find is 0.35" of ice from an asos sensor near Greenwood, SC
Also a report of power lines downed near that area
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 13:46:31 GMT -6
I haven't heard any reports from this last storm...did the severe icing verify in the Carolinas? Seemed like there was an awfully pronounced warm wedge with that storm the whole way, really. The highest report I could find is 0.35" of ice from an asos sensor near Greenwood, SC
Also a report of power lines downed near that area
Almost seems like this was mostly an elevation storm out that way and I really think elevation played a fairly significant role around here too. The lowest elevation area within the CWA(S/SE of STL within the river valley) happened to be the area that only got a trace or dusting except for far eastern areas where the lift was much weaker. I don't think that's a coincidence. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 17, 2022 13:58:06 GMT -6
Main, the big three globals are sure dry for the next 7-10 days , hopefully something changes it’s going be rough being cold for a week or two with no precipitation At least it doesn’t look to bad cold wise. Nothing we can’t handle in the area. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 14:06:38 GMT -6
Main, the big three globals are sure dry for the next 7-10 days , hopefully something changes it’s going be rough being cold for a week or two with no precipitation At least it doesn’t look to bad cold wise. Nothing we can’t handle in the area. Sure, as long as your house stays warm and your pipes don't freeze, and... |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 17, 2022 14:28:47 GMT -6
At least it doesn’t look to bad cold wise. Nothing we can’t handle in the area. Sure, as long as your house stays warm and your pipes don't freeze, and... Just trying to look on the positive side. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2022 14:30:35 GMT -6
Dang 18z nam is gonna get me all excited.
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Post by bororug on Jan 17, 2022 15:19:41 GMT -6
Dang 18z nam is gonna get me all excited. Keeping the hope alive! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2022 15:38:52 GMT -6
Dang 18z nam is gonna get me all excited. NAM definitely upping the ante with stronger Fgen. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2022 19:01:10 GMT -6
Talk about a change in a forecast….. My brother in South Carolina had a forecast yesterday of 3-5 tonight and 4-8 tomorrow….. now they have an inch or less for both with .2-.4 of ice ……went from a snow storm to an ice storm in 12 hours Yep 👍 Everyone gets screwed |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2022 19:03:02 GMT -6
So, one last look back at yesterday for verification purposes... I plotted the snowfall reports againts my forecast and it helps tell the story. The forecast west of Highway 67 was excellent. I could not be happier with how things turned out west of Hwy 67. You move just east of Hwy 67 and things start going dowhill. I think it was a fair effort along I-55 in Illinois and down Hwy 67 in Missouri... but it was a miss here as the accumulations came in below expectations. The big swing and miss was pretty much the entire 1-2 band. It was a 100% bust. The truth is the forecast is almost always off on the edges. A better forecast would have been "Trace to 2 inches" out there and that would have covered. Overall, I'm really happy that the highest impact zone was accurately forecast. I'm not happy at all with busting the eastern edge of the accumulating snow. Storm is over... time to move ahead!  We had 1.5-2" here |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 17, 2022 19:33:32 GMT -6
Talk about a change in a forecast….. My brother in South Carolina had a forecast yesterday of 3-5 tonight and 4-8 tomorrow….. now they have an inch or less for both with .2-.4 of ice ……went from a snow storm to an ice storm in 12 hours Yep 👍 Everyone gets screwed NWS down there had a rough day …… they forecast snow all week only to change it to all ice just hours before the storm…… they got 8 inches of snow with no ice …… why couldn’t that happen for us lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2022 20:10:35 GMT -6
Yep 👍 Everyone gets screwed NWS down there had a rough day …… they forecast snow all week only to change it to all ice just hours before the storm…… they got 8 inches of snow with no ice …… why couldn’t that happen for us lol And the lesson here... Leave yourself wiggle room. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 17, 2022 20:16:50 GMT -6
NWS down there had a rough day …… they forecast snow all week only to change it to all ice just hours before the storm…… they got 8 inches of snow with no ice …… why couldn’t that happen for us lol And the lesson here... Leave yourself wiggle room. I use the same philosophy when I buy pants. I am also surprised we did not get more melting the past two days. I still have about two inches of snow on the back patio table. The yard is very slick with partially melted and refrozen slush. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2022 20:44:38 GMT -6
00z nam is very interesting for Wednesday night.
Looks like a Fgen band might just explode over the southern metro and drop several inches.
I’m jealous.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2022 20:49:29 GMT -6
00z nam is very interesting for Wednesday night. Looks like a Fgen band might just explode over the southern metro and drop several inches. I’m jealous. It’s the only guidance I’ve seen that looks anything like that unfortunately. But man I can hope lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2022 21:02:31 GMT -6
Why must the nam put us through this...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2022 21:06:26 GMT -6
00z nam is very interesting for Wednesday night. Looks like a Fgen band might just explode over the southern metro and drop several inches. I’m jealous. It’s the only guidance I’ve seen that looks anything like that unfortunately. But man I can hope lol WOW NOW BRINGS ACCUMULATION UP TO 44/64. |
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