|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2022 11:49:01 GMT -6
Medium and long term show some pretty serious cold. Could be wasted cold with the south and east US getting the storms.
Man, when’s the last time we got to watch a big southern low spread a stream of ice and snow out of TX and OK for us? Everything is just so east-based these days, severe weather and winter weather.
|
|
|
|
Post by pbc12871 on Jan 16, 2022 11:50:46 GMT -6
Yeah when we are depending on clippers for a decent winter, it's not good. When was the last time clippers made for a good winter, like 1977?
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2022 11:54:50 GMT -6
Yeah when we are depending on clippers for a decent winter, it's not good. When was the last time clippers made for a good winter, like 1977? 2010 |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2022 13:32:02 GMT -6
That's a hell of a storm...severe thunderstorms reaching all the way down to Cuba. They had some tornadoes in FL this morning. Kind of like the Superstorm of '93's much, much smaller brother.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2022 14:11:45 GMT -6
Those Tonga eruption videos are pretty cool. There is no official VEI estimate yet but many are saying that it is probably a VEI 5 eruption. I know that ASOS stations in MN, IA, and WI recorded the shockwave. I'm not sure about any of the St. Louis stations and I can't load 5-minute METARs older than 24 hours so I can't check. The only SO2 report I've seen is about 1 MtSO2. For point of reference Pinatubo was 20 MtSO2 and Tambora was 100 MtSO2. Pinatubo cooled the planet by about 0.4-0.5 C whereas Tambora cooled it by over 1 C. A lot of the SO2 from Tonga probably went into the stratosphere and it is a low latitude eruption so we should expect some global cooling in the next few months. If the 1 MtSO2 initial estimate is right the cooling will probably be marginal at best and perhaps only barely detectable. Given that and the fact that it occurred so late in our winter there is a near zero chance it will help get us out of the single digit seasonal snowfall rut.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 16, 2022 14:36:35 GMT -6
Wouldn't the ocean trap or slow the effects on the atmosphere?
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2022 15:06:39 GMT -6
Wouldn't the ocean trap or slow the effects on the atmosphere? Wouldn't think it would be substantial with such a strong explosion but could be wrong. It was definitely a big boom. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2022 15:29:47 GMT -6
Back in STL and happy to still have snow on the ground in our yard. The deck has right at 1.0 compacted and partially melted so I have to believe my visual guess of close to 2 was accurate. Will record 1.8 as my final total just to be conservative.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2022 16:33:02 GMT -6
So, one last look back at yesterday for verification purposes... I plotted the snowfall reports againts my forecast and it helps tell the story. The forecast west of Highway 67 was excellent. I could not be happier with how things turned out west of Hwy 67. You move just east of Hwy 67 and things start going dowhill. I think it was a fair effort along I-55 in Illinois and down Hwy 67 in Missouri... but it was a miss here as the accumulations came in below expectations. The big swing and miss was pretty much the entire 1-2 band. It was a 100% bust. The truth is the forecast is almost always off on the edges. A better forecast would have been "Trace to 2 inches" out there and that would have covered. Overall, I'm really happy that the highest impact zone was accurately forecast. I'm not happy at all with busting the eastern edge of the accumulating snow. Storm is over... time to move ahead!  |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Jan 16, 2022 16:38:14 GMT -6
I at least got to see a nice burst of snow fall about midnight Saturday. I'm happy with that....hopefully the next one puts snow down on the ground over this way.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 16, 2022 16:44:09 GMT -6
My brother just text me and said they have 7.5 inches in SC …. Another 1-2 tonight yet…… unreal
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2022 16:51:00 GMT -6
Wouldn't the ocean trap or slow the effects on the atmosphere? I don't know. I don't think the depth of the eruption was substantial so I agree with BRTN that it probably didn't stop a whole lot of the ejecta. One article I read said the island got obliterated even below the waterline so if it erupts again there will be a much thicker layer of water to suppress it the next time. Anyway, satellite observations clearly show at least part of the plume entering the stratosphere. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 16, 2022 17:41:18 GMT -6
Radar is starting to come alive a little bit
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2022 17:58:44 GMT -6
I just noticed that , not sure if anything is reaching the ground, but more impressive than I expected
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 16, 2022 18:25:15 GMT -6
I just noticed that , not sure if anything is reaching the ground, but more impressive than I expected MPING I’m Quincy is reporting snow. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2022 18:25:17 GMT -6
I just noticed that , not sure if anything is reaching the ground, but more impressive than I expected COU reporting -SN in the last hour. |
|
|
|
Post by WeatherLes on Jan 16, 2022 18:42:53 GMT -6
Right at 2” on my deck, not much melting here. This snow will be on the ground for weeks here living on the backside of a hill that the sun doesn’t hit.
|
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2022 18:55:31 GMT -6
Looks like a little clip might find it’s way into the metro. Moving fast but ground is cold.
|
|
|
|
Post by bear1 on Jan 16, 2022 19:27:29 GMT -6
Got flakes flittering here IMBY  30°
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 16, 2022 19:55:06 GMT -6
Little heavier than a flurry here. Looks more impressive because of the breeze
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2022 20:01:43 GMT -6
few flakes fluttering furiously and finely fast
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2022 20:02:39 GMT -6
Nice steady light snow in wentzville, car lightly dusted over
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2022 20:05:00 GMT -6
Wife just got home at 8 PM and reports snow flurries. Not heavy enough to stick or accumulate
|
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2022 20:08:12 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2022 20:14:05 GMT -6
Windblown Light Snow in St.Peters Beginning.  |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2022 20:16:18 GMT -6
Actually nice medium flake size, a nice pretty steady light snow, to bad it’s short lived
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2022 20:19:43 GMT -6
Driveways dusted again. Nice little band of snow  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2022 20:26:27 GMT -6
Flakes flying in Chesterfield.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2022 20:33:11 GMT -6
Flakeage in Arnold
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 16, 2022 20:34:39 GMT -6
Flurries have begun in Fletcher
|
|
30°
