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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 16, 2021 12:35:46 GMT -6
12z euro showing a legit snowstorm from Mid Missouri through Chicago on Tuesday.
I’m pumped
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 17, 2021 9:31:33 GMT -6
Surigae bombed hard this morning. ADTv9 estimated pressure and winds are 890mb and 170kts with a score of 8.0. This is likely among the most intense tropical cyclones for the month of April.  |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Apr 17, 2021 9:44:41 GMT -6
The light rain has stopped and radar looks to be getting dryer will that change later?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 17, 2021 9:49:17 GMT -6
The light rain has stopped and radar looks to be getting dryer will that change later? I wouldn't expect much more rain today...sprinkles or a stray shower, maybe. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 17, 2021 9:49:35 GMT -6
Surigae bombed hard this morning. ADTv9 estimated pressure and winds are 890mb and 170kts with a score of 8.0. This is likely among the most intense tropical cyclones for the month of April. Unreal! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 17, 2021 10:08:31 GMT -6
Anyone believe the 12z gfs for Tuesday night lol?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 17, 2021 10:11:01 GMT -6
Also, is it possible that the temps near or possibly even just below freezing with heavy frost mid week could actually be more of a concern for vegetation than the dry 20's we had a couple weeks ago? Models keep trending colder.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 17, 2021 10:13:41 GMT -6
Anyone believe the 12z gfs for Tuesday night lol? I think the gfs is a bit too far south and weak while the euro is a touch too strong and north. Somebody in Central Illinois into Indiana gets 6+ inches is my guess. Pretty awesome |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 17, 2021 11:19:02 GMT -6
Anyone believe the 12z gfs for Tuesday night lol? Sure do. Very anomalously cold airmass dropping south with a good wave wrapping up along it. Could very well drop a band of accumulating snow across the region like WSC said...although I'd bet on more like D-3" with the warm ground conditions. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 17, 2021 11:41:58 GMT -6
Ugh. Screw this cold, wet, snowflake crap. I have stuff to do later next week and weekend that I purposely scheduled for late April for warmer weather. 🙄
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 17, 2021 13:56:45 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 17, 2021 14:12:08 GMT -6
Boy feels like early Fall outside. This is getting me in the mood for Halloween.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 17, 2021 14:58:18 GMT -6
Latest JMA advisory put Surigae at 895mb and latest JTWC advisory has it at 888mb.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 17, 2021 17:22:59 GMT -6
Latest JMA advisory put Surigae at 895mb and latest JTWC advisory has it at 888mb. If it heads north enough, i.e. close to Japan or southeast of it, early May could be in trouble as it could reinvigorate the eastern Pacific Ridge to Alaska and continue to allow PV anomalies/lobes to dive into the Midwest. This is shaping up to being our boring-est Spring ever severe storm wise locally. Maybe by Summer we can cash in on some MCS's but with our luck that's when the giant 600DM ridge builds in and we go straight to a hot dry pattern. Something's gotta give eventually.
As the old expression goes... Where was this pattern for most of Winter minus February? Laggy Springs have overall been a theme as of late.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 17, 2021 20:07:59 GMT -6
LMAO......can’t make up some of this stuff in here......
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2021 8:42:52 GMT -6
Models are still making a strong arguement for accumulating snow on Tuesday from Mid-MO into Central IL/IN. Very strong mid-level frontogenesis sweeping across the region with 850mb temps well below zero and THKN <130DM within the band.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 18, 2021 8:56:43 GMT -6
Models are still making a strong arguement for accumulating snow on Tuesday from Mid-MO into Central IL/IN. Very strong mid-level frontogenesis sweeping across the region with 850mb temps well below zero and THKN <130DM within the band. I still think some 6+ numbers materialize on grassy surfaces, probably in far northern Indiana. 12z nam is giving me some more confidence in Chicago, but time of day and the lake are going to make it tough on me. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2021 9:20:59 GMT -6
Back from a busy week at Offutt AFB and getting settled back home. A wild swing in weather is on the way over the next 48 hours. As it looks to me... I expect a brief (perhaps very brief), but rather intense period of snow Tuesday with the passage of the mid-level frontogenetic band... followed by some very cold air for this time of year/season. Accumulations will be tough to come by even on grassy surfaces due to warm ground, high sun angle, etc. But... large slush balls can be be suprisingly efficient accumulators and slow to melt. Precip intensity may be such that the ground may briefly turn white... especially on north facing hillsides/slopes. But as precip intensity quickly fades, melting will accelerate even in the face of falling temps thanks to the above mentioned mitigating factors. I would not be suprised to get a few reports of an inch or two over my northern counties... but I'm not expecting more than a very brief/light coating for STL and the I-70 corridor as it stands now. I agree... some more substantial totals of 3+ are not out of the question further north between SPI and CHI.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 18, 2021 9:52:34 GMT -6
12z gfs continues to be further southeast with the main show, giving the northern metro a solid thump of snow.
We shall see if the euro backs that up or goes in the nam camp.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 18, 2021 10:02:09 GMT -6
Meh
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2021 13:17:46 GMT -6
The Negative NAO on the GEFS is stupid crazy and persistent all the way through 1st week of May. An incredible pattern for this late in the Spring for sure.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2021 13:20:25 GMT -6
Me thinks this pattern is going to rear it's head at least a time or two during the Summer, which seems to have 2014 vibes to it which was unusually cool and relatively stable. Unless things reverse soon we could be in for a relatively pleasant Summer with lower humidity then years past and temps close to normal. Not saying there won't be hot days at all, but they could be relatively few and nothing extreme.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 18, 2021 13:44:35 GMT -6
Not sure if this weather pattern or the cardinals offense is worse right now
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 18, 2021 14:11:46 GMT -6
Interrupted by the rain again. Ugh.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2021 14:43:34 GMT -6
Freeze Watch up for Wednesday Morning, might be needed again Thursday AM as well especially away from the immediate Metro. Coldest for April since 1986 for St. Louis, and 1967 for Columbia. Impressive.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 18, 2021 17:01:06 GMT -6
Freeze Watch up for Wednesday Morning, might be needed again Thursday AM as well especially away from the immediate Metro. Coldest for April since 1986 for St. Louis, and 1967 for Columbia. Impressive. What about a couple years ago when it was extremely cold in early April and didn’t warm up until the last few days of the month? Don’t remember the year but I remember a dusting of snow around the 7th-9th and temps really low. 2017 or 2018 maybe? |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 18, 2021 22:40:39 GMT -6
Putting aside this crazy temperature roller coaster this week. Today was soooo nice!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 18, 2021 22:43:30 GMT -6
I work at the Toyota plant up here in Troy, Mo. And let me tell you. It gets pretty warm in there during the Summer. So with these cooler temperatures lasting a bit longer in the Spring I'll take it.
What does disappoint me is the lack of severe weather. I always enjoy a good storm. And that I am upset about so far. I'm hoping May makes up for that. And during the Summer too. Hoping we get lots of MCS activity.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 19, 2021 5:17:55 GMT -6
Well NASA flew a helicopter on Mars, so that's pretty damn cool.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 19, 2021 5:56:37 GMT -6
34 and a bit of frost on the ground this morning. Pic may not do it justice.  |
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