Chris's Corner - The Spring Cut-off Season has Arrived
Apr 6, 2021 16:29:19 GMT -6
REB, WEAXWATCHER, and 3 more like this
Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 6, 2021 16:29:19 GMT -6
Time for the fresh smell of a new thread now that winter is over. Over, kind of. I'm not at all saying that we are done with sub-freezing or near freezing temperatures... I'm not ready to jump on that train yet.
Before I go any further... John in Sullivan... please check your private messages
Now on to Wednesday and the potential for severe weather. I think SPC has a pretty good handle on the situation with their latest outlook for tomorrow afternoon. I have expanded my "Severe Possible" zone a little more north of their position...almost all the way to the Missouri River...but it's not a huge difference. I do have concerns about early morning storms surviving further to the east than models might have us believe (anyone remember last year... it happened A LOT!) That does not mean a morning severe threat. It does mean some elevated storms with small hail can't be ruled out. These storms will have an impact on the thermodynamic environment for the afternoon. The typical affect is to supress the focus for stronger storms more to the south...which is a good first guess. However, these bowling ball cut-off lows and wrap a narrow dry slot in behind the morning warm-conveyor belt type precip and allow for a narrow ribbon of destabilization... which is also a concern for later in the afternoon. There is more than enough shear for organized storms... it will just be a question of quality instability...which will be aided by any broken clouds post morning storms. All models are forecasting Td's near or above 60 in a broad zone ahead of the dry-line/cold front which is forecast to sweep across the region late in the day. Even with the limited instability... the large scale forcing aloft associated with the upper low and pivoting shortwave may be enough to drive a broken line of dynamically enhanced thunderstorms. Lapse rates are respectable enough in the 6.5 to 7.0 range as well.
The bottomline is that the set-up is messy tomorrow... but at least some potential exists for a few strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The primary concern will be wind and hail... but if enough instability can be realized a tornado threat may develop in a narrow ribbon from Warrenton south into the Park Hills area...and points southwest.
One final note about the weather balloon. Being involved in that project and helping Joe and his students find it is among the proudest moments of my career. It may seem like something so simple... but I know how important seeing a project through like that can be to young students. For a few, it may be life changing...it may be THE thing that turns them on to STEM and maybe even meteorology. If I was even a small part of helping that happen... I am a very happy man! Thanks Joe for what you... and all the teachers have done to try and make learning special in these less than ideal times!
Before I go any further... John in Sullivan... please check your private messages
Now on to Wednesday and the potential for severe weather. I think SPC has a pretty good handle on the situation with their latest outlook for tomorrow afternoon. I have expanded my "Severe Possible" zone a little more north of their position...almost all the way to the Missouri River...but it's not a huge difference. I do have concerns about early morning storms surviving further to the east than models might have us believe (anyone remember last year... it happened A LOT!) That does not mean a morning severe threat. It does mean some elevated storms with small hail can't be ruled out. These storms will have an impact on the thermodynamic environment for the afternoon. The typical affect is to supress the focus for stronger storms more to the south...which is a good first guess. However, these bowling ball cut-off lows and wrap a narrow dry slot in behind the morning warm-conveyor belt type precip and allow for a narrow ribbon of destabilization... which is also a concern for later in the afternoon. There is more than enough shear for organized storms... it will just be a question of quality instability...which will be aided by any broken clouds post morning storms. All models are forecasting Td's near or above 60 in a broad zone ahead of the dry-line/cold front which is forecast to sweep across the region late in the day. Even with the limited instability... the large scale forcing aloft associated with the upper low and pivoting shortwave may be enough to drive a broken line of dynamically enhanced thunderstorms. Lapse rates are respectable enough in the 6.5 to 7.0 range as well.
The bottomline is that the set-up is messy tomorrow... but at least some potential exists for a few strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The primary concern will be wind and hail... but if enough instability can be realized a tornado threat may develop in a narrow ribbon from Warrenton south into the Park Hills area...and points southwest.
One final note about the weather balloon. Being involved in that project and helping Joe and his students find it is among the proudest moments of my career. It may seem like something so simple... but I know how important seeing a project through like that can be to young students. For a few, it may be life changing...it may be THE thing that turns them on to STEM and maybe even meteorology. If I was even a small part of helping that happen... I am a very happy man! Thanks Joe for what you... and all the teachers have done to try and make learning special in these less than ideal times!
