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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2021 11:30:53 GMT -6
Ukie looks good with the post frontal precep Thursday night but surface temps are a bit warm. It looks really good with the snow showers and squalls on Friday into Saturday morning Nearly 100m height falls at 500mb in 6 hours |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2021 12:06:39 GMT -6
The 12z NAM has THREE solid chances for accumulating snow. The first is post frontal with a powerful is piece of vorticity plowing into Missouri.  Then as the cyclone occludes and stops in it's tracks another piece of energy rotates down the backside of the trough And this isn't totally crushed caught up in a jet streak. There will definitely be decent lift.  Then another piece drops out of Iowa into the flow.  All in all its looking like a snowy 3 days. Even though accumulations will probably be limited. Surface temps are still quite warm considering how cold the mid levels are |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2021 12:09:15 GMT -6
We should say that while it is rare these setups can produce.
The snow growth is likely to be fantastic.
Those lapse rates can squeeze out every bit of potential moisture.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 12:23:46 GMT -6
I'd say it's a good bet many areas will get the ground covered with snow this weekend...should be a decent stretch of wintry weather for sure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2021 13:55:32 GMT -6
NWS Austin office throwing shade
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2021 15:01:55 GMT -6
Have to like the look of the 18z NAM Thursday afternoon through Friday. Just a pinwheel of snow showers as the low stalls and drifts south over the Great Lakes region
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2021 15:14:20 GMT -6
Crazy that the surface temps are going to go into the upper 30's to near 40 with a huge low bombing out over the lakes in mid-Jan.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 15:20:06 GMT -6
Have to like the look of the 18z NAM Thursday afternoon through Friday. Just a pinwheel of snow showers as the low stalls and drifts south over the Great Lakes region Reminds me a bit of 2009 minus the ridiculous cutter... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 15:20:34 GMT -6
Crazy that the surface temps are going to go into the upper 30's to near 40 with a huge low bombing out over the lakes in mid-Jan. I seriously doubt that's the case... |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2021 15:24:57 GMT -6
Crazy that the surface temps are going to go into the upper 30's to near 40 with a huge low bombing out over the lakes in mid-Jan. I seriously doubt that's the case... I agree... but the initial wave coming in before phasing is Pacific origin- and the path it takes allows some downsloping air to get involved. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 15:40:40 GMT -6
I seriously doubt that's the case... I agree... but the initial wave coming in before phasing is Pacific origin- and the path it takes allows some downsloping air to get involved. Models have 1000-850THKN around 128DM at daybreak with the cold core digging in and SNSH activity...don't think we'll see much recovery but I could be wrong. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 12, 2021 15:47:29 GMT -6
The details are still a bit murky but David Legates and Ryan Maue just got relieved of their duties with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. They apparently used the official logo/seal without authorization or without the OSTP even being made aware that they were trying to disseminate official looking documents on a questionable website containing misleading information regarding the climate. Of local interest...Dr. Anthony Lupo from the University of Missouri seems to be mixed up in this as well. He is an author on one those papers. www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/11/controversial-climate-skeptics-release-papers/Obviously...Ryan Maue's involvement with NOAA and maybe even his career in general is looking pretty iffy right now. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2021 15:55:37 GMT -6
The details are still a bit murky but David Legates and Ryan Maue just got relieved of their duties with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. This happened about an hour ago. They apparently used the official logo/seal without authorization or without the OSTP even being made aware that they were trying to disseminate official looking documents on a questionable website containing misleading information regarding the climate. This happened about an hour. BTW...of local interest...Dr. Anthony Lupo from the University of Missouri seems to be mixed up in all of this well. He is an author on one those papers. www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/11/controversial-climate-skeptics-release-papers/Obviously...Ryan Maue's involvement with NOAA and maybe even his career in general is looking pretty iffy right now. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy... |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 12, 2021 16:03:09 GMT -6
The details are still a bit murky but David Legates and Ryan Maue just got relieved of their duties with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. This happened about an hour ago. They apparently used the official logo/seal without authorization or without the OSTP even being made aware that they were trying to disseminate official looking documents on a questionable website containing misleading information regarding the climate. This happened about an hour. BTW...of local interest...Dr. Anthony Lupo from the University of Missouri seems to be mixed up in all of this well. He is an author on one those papers. www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/11/controversial-climate-skeptics-release-papers/Obviously...Ryan Maue's involvement with NOAA and maybe even his career in general is looking pretty iffy right now. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy... His weather charts are top notch... I do have to draw the line on his surface temperature color table choice though. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 16:07:34 GMT -6
Pretty sad when an actual climatologist is given a witch hunt from day one. The marine ecologist that held the position before Legates must have been preferred...lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2021 16:08:46 GMT -6
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy... His weather charts are top notch... I do have to draw the line on his surface temperature color table choice though. I’m sure somebody can fill that void without the rest of his less desirable qualities. In other weather news, another active Twitter user that is pretty good at his job says the PV event is unfolding nicely and we could be in good shape by late January. Good news from Dr. Cohen today |
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campingfamily
Weather Weenie
Birdie Hills and Knaust Rd St. Peters, MO
Posts: 54 
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Post by campingfamily on Jan 12, 2021 18:44:45 GMT -6
Ok- not trying to be lazy, but I don't know enough to be able to come to a conclusion. I have 2 college kids headed back to Chicago (up I-55) for class this weekend. They can travel up any time Friday-Sunday. From what I can tell, it seems that delaying travel until Sunday might be the best chance of avoiding driving in snow. Am I right? I've been trying to look at forecasts from here to there, and maybe there isn't going to be anything to have concern about, but I keep seeing maps that are showing chances of something. Would anyone like to share an opinion?
Thanks in advance!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 19:07:42 GMT -6
Ok- not trying to be lazy, but I don't know enough to be able to come to a conclusion. I have 2 college kids headed back to Chicago (up I-55) for class this weekend. They can travel up any time Friday-Sunday. From what I can tell, it seems that delaying travel until Sunday might be the best chance of avoiding driving in snow. Am I right? I've been trying to look at forecasts from here to there, and maybe there isn't going to be anything to have concern about, but I keep seeing maps that are showing chances of something. Would anyone like to share an opinion? Thanks in advance! I would plan on heading out Sat mid-day. Models are hinting at another clipper dropping through Sunday. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 12, 2021 19:11:13 GMT -6
My Niece is driving up from OKC sometime overnight Thursday into Friday. Should be a fun drive lol.
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campingfamily
Weather Weenie
Birdie Hills and Knaust Rd St. Peters, MO
Posts: 54
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Post by campingfamily on Jan 12, 2021 19:27:13 GMT -6
Thank you!
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117 
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 12, 2021 20:08:43 GMT -6
Hi it's been a while since I've posted!!
Just adding a little insult to injury on the snow front- I am in San Angelo, Texas and we got 3.5" of snow on Sunday and there's still some on the ground even now. What a brutal winter for St. Louis :/
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2021 21:26:52 GMT -6
The 00Z Nam is so bad.
Like what the bleep?
I doubt it's wrong.
The super phased bombs from earlier are likely wrong.
WORST WINTER EVER
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2021 21:55:57 GMT -6
The gfs, icon, and rgem bring that swath of snow across the area Friday evening into Saturday morning. 1-2” seems possible there. Nothing like we want but hell with a year like this I’ll take anything.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2021 22:00:39 GMT -6
I doubt anyone sees anywhere near 1 or 2 inches. Maybe a light coating.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2021 22:07:49 GMT -6
Yes , most likely a 1” or less type storm Friday late afternoon into the overnight hours . The post frontal portion of stow has basically disappeared from the few models that had it. Some of the models are bombing the storm out and moving it a little Closer to St. Louis if that happens you could possibly see more than an inch in spots. This could easily be our biggest storm of the year so far ! It’s not really tough to be beat .25” accumulation.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2021 22:20:14 GMT -6
Any accumulation will be my biggest snow of the season. Might have to buy some bread, eggs and milk for this storm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2021 22:22:40 GMT -6
Gfs is trying to cook something up for Tuesday/Wednesday all the sudden.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2021 22:27:06 GMT -6
Temps are borderline but with the gradient I could see it underestimating. With that being said, if we get that kind of moisture feed and storm track in mid January and it doesn’t produce winter weather I give up.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2021 22:27:18 GMT -6
Icon has a little weak open wave as well with us right on the rain snow line . More snow in northern Missouri, more rain down south
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2021 22:28:45 GMT -6
All we need is a dusting on pavement and I get to go salt , I think that’s very doable Friday night.
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