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Post by packrat on Oct 6, 2020 9:58:05 GMT -6
I’m between Puerto Morelos and Playa del Carmen. I'm sure you're all over it, but stay safe. Good chance it'll be Cat 4+ at landfall wherever that ends up being. Edit: I see NHC forecast is inching a bit further south now too and stronger by the way. Yeah, it’s exciting (as a weather dork) and concerning at the same time. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2020 10:00:57 GMT -6
47 mb drop in 24 hours, holy hell. That may be a new record?
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 10:10:13 GMT -6
47 mb drop in 24 hours, holy hell. That may be a new record? I dunno, I think Wilma dropped an insane 100mb in a 30 hour period or something like that. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 6, 2020 10:14:28 GMT -6
Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020
...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 10:18:19 GMT -6
This current convective burst in the southern eyewall is intense. Cloud tops at -92C.
The lack of a clear eye is also tricking GOES-16 ADT which thinks Delta is still a tropical storm.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2020 10:18:51 GMT -6
47 mb drop in 24 hours, holy hell. That may be a new record? I dunno, I think Wilma dropped an insane 100mb in a 30 hour period or something like that. You are correct, thanks for that. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2020 10:55:03 GMT -6
Looks like we've got another monster headed towards the Gulf...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 6, 2020 11:12:54 GMT -6
GEM gives most of us a direct hit with Delta's Remnants as the GFS continues to ever slowly creep westward each run but still not quite northwest enough to get us. ICON seems the farthest east be interesting to see what the EURO/UKMET show.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 6, 2020 11:14:20 GMT -6
Also watching a strong autumn front on Delta's heels that could give us a fast outbreak of strong to severe thunderstorms before another short but stout cool down for a couple days comes. Looks like an active few days potentially starting this weekend.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 6, 2020 11:25:19 GMT -6
12z HWRF makes a run at CAT 5 by Friday morning .
If the drift west continues, Lake Charles might get a repeater
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2020 11:53:49 GMT -6
47 mb drop in 24 hours, holy hell. That may be a new record? I dunno, I think Wilma dropped an insane 100mb in a 30 hour period or something like that. Reed said it...it must be true. LOL |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2020 12:22:24 GMT -6
Not sure I remember seeing a 140 mph hurricane with a closed eye...first I can recall anyway. It's bound to open up soon.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2020 12:36:07 GMT -6
I dunno, I think Wilma dropped an insane 100mb in a 30 hour period or something like that. Reed said it...it must be true. LOL I was actually comparing it to Michael from a couple years ago that was in the 40-42 mb range. Didn't realize Timmer posted that and I had forgotten about Wilma and Patricia's intensification. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 6, 2020 12:40:51 GMT -6
Man Delta is turning into a beast! And fast!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:15 GMT -6
Reed said it...it must be true. LOL I was actually comparing it to Michael from a couple years ago that was in the 40-42 mb range. Didn't realize Timmer posted that and I had forgotten about Wilma and Patricia's intensification. Timmer posted about it matter-of-factly earlier but it's really not even close. Wilma holds the record by far at 97mb in 24hrs. Apparently, this storm may hold the record for greatest increase in windspeed within 30hrs I guess...but that's hard to believe with Wilma's massive pressure fall. Timmer just loves posting hyperbole. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 6, 2020 14:13:25 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 6, 2020 14:55:48 GMT -6
Delta is eating gamma lol. What a crazy storm.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 6, 2020 15:38:22 GMT -6
Delta eating gamma is the new fraternity.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 6, 2020 19:18:20 GMT -6
pretty progressive wx pattern next few weeks setting up - alternate periods of cool/warm wx. in other words, typical october.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 6, 2020 21:10:27 GMT -6
NAM looks wet Saturday Afternoon and Evening from Springfield, IL to St. Louis, MO to Salam,MO. This is with Delta's remnants.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 6, 2020 21:12:53 GMT -6
Also Delta weakened last advisory back down to 130MPH from 145MPH with a slight westward shift in track as expected so far. Looks like it will stay a Cat 2 to Cat 3 most of the time kissing Cat 4 from time to time, but we might get away with no Cat 5 this season. Not that it makes a lots of difference at the end of the day. It's still a dangerous storm.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2020 21:17:19 GMT -6
Also Delta weakened last advisory back down to 130MPH from 145MPH with a slight westward shift in track as expected so far. Looks like it will stay a Cat 2 to Cat 3 most of the time kissing Cat 4 from time to time, but we might get away with no Cat 5 this season. Not that it makes a lots of difference at the end of the day. It's still a dangerous storm. I think it’ll go to a low end 3 after crossing the Yucatán, explode into a high end 4 or 5 in the central Gulf, then back off to a 3 just before landfall. |
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Post by amstilost on Oct 6, 2020 21:18:20 GMT -6
What is the disruption in the western half of Hurricane Delta?? It really shows up on Band 13 IR. It also shows up on WV loop.
It almost looks like a front of some sort with a squall line. Is that the final remnants of Gamma??
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 7, 2020 1:13:12 GMT -6
NAM looks wet Saturday Afternoon and Evening from Springfield, IL to St. Louis, MO to Salam,MO. This is with Delta's remnants. That's not good. My nephew is getting married late Saturday afternoon in an outdoor ceremony in Highland, IL. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2020 6:18:02 GMT -6
Delta is struggling big time this morning with winds down to 105. Obviously to be expected with the center now being over land, but it was having lots of trouble on approach as well. I still think there will be rapid intensification once again in the Gulf.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 7, 2020 7:15:11 GMT -6
Delta is just simply having some indigestion from heating gamma, once it moves out to sea it will likely be larger in size and less compact due to the weight it has gained from gamma lol.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2020 8:52:43 GMT -6
CFS 768hr would be nuts if what it shows happens October 23rd to 26th or Hr 372-420. Decent snow possibly accumulating at that time.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2020 9:46:13 GMT -6
Delta is struggling big time this morning with winds down to 105. Obviously to be expected with the center now being over land, but it was having lots of trouble on approach as well. I still think there will be rapid intensification once again in the Gulf. When a hurricane has an eye that is only 4-5NM across that's not much more than a super-sized wedge tornado when you think about it. They are prone to sudden collapse when they are that size. My thought is that it will emerge in the GOM with a larger center and actually be in a better position to intensify in a more stable way with a larger eye and larger wind field... due largely to the impacts of the interaction with land. It will be interesting to see if my hypothesis plays out! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2020 9:52:48 GMT -6
Delta is struggling big time this morning with winds down to 105. Obviously to be expected with the center now being over land, but it was having lots of trouble on approach as well. I still think there will be rapid intensification once again in the Gulf. When a hurricane has an eye that is only 4-5NM across that's not much more than a super-sized wedge tornado when you think about it. They are prone to sudden collapse when they are that size. My thought is that it will emerge in the GOM with a larger center and actually be in a better position to intensify in a more stable way with a larger eye and larger wind field... due largely to the impacts of the interaction with land. It will be interesting to see if my hypothesis plays out! I've been thinking that as well since yesterday. It could time out just right that it is in a major intensification phase leading up to landfall. In fact, I think that is likely. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 7, 2020 10:13:39 GMT -6
Delta is struggling big time this morning with winds down to 105. Obviously to be expected with the center now being over land, but it was having lots of trouble on approach as well. I still think there will be rapid intensification once again in the Gulf. When a hurricane has an eye that is only 4-5NM across that's not much more than a super-sized wedge tornado when you think about it. They are prone to sudden collapse when they are that size. My thought is that it will emerge in the GOM with a larger center and actually be in a better position to intensify in a more stable way with a larger eye and larger wind field... due largely to the impacts of the interaction with land. It will be interesting to see if my hypothesis plays out! That is to say intensification wouldn't be as rapid, no? Forward speed could then play a key role in how strong the storm eventually gets, if that's the case. |
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