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Post by bdgwx on Nov 19, 2020 9:29:09 GMT -6
There is a wind advisory for tomorrow. Relative humidity should be > 40% and since things aren't terribly dry around here I don't think we'll have to worry about fires like they are in KS and western MO. Well...the SPC has us in an elevated risk for fire and the NWS issued a Red Flag Warning so... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 19, 2020 9:37:41 GMT -6
Weve had some windy conditions here for abt an hour.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 19, 2020 10:09:43 GMT -6
For an illustration of how modeling can change on a dime take a look at the storm around hour 120 on this mornings GFS run and compare to previous runs. I hope we get a bunch of these this winter because that's what makes forecasting challenging and fun!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2020 10:41:51 GMT -6
For an illustration of how modeling can change on a dime take a look at the storm around hour 120 on this mornings GFS run and compare to previous runs. I hope we get a bunch of these this winter because that's what makes forecasting challenging and fun! Euro was way ahead in this weekend being south and with the midweek storm. Sometimes the gfs is just embarrassing |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 19, 2020 11:22:53 GMT -6
120 matches 126 and 132 in prior runs surprisingly close. I see a Co low developing with rain ahead of it in the plains with the upper level trough in roughly the same position. Not sure what others are seeing but ill take a closer look outside of work. Maybe some timing differences and the older runs seem to hv a better cold air connection but if you ask me, the gfs is always too bullish on bringing in cold air to a system at first.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 19, 2020 11:32:50 GMT -6
For an illustration of how modeling can change on a dime take a look at the storm around hour 120 on this mornings GFS run and compare to previous runs. I hope we get a bunch of these this winter because that's what makes forecasting challenging and fun! Yeah the arrival of the cold air has been inching earlier and earlier for several days. My first thought was it was too aggressive... the cold/high just didnt seem strong enough to seep under the southwest flow. But looking at the heights, they do stedily drop overall... so the front is coming south to match those. As for Tuesday... I wasnt thrilled with the GFS handling earlier this week... but was hesitant to throw my eggs all in the euro basket. It hasnt exactly been knocking it out of the park either. But, the concensus has definitely trended toward a euro like solution...so I pulled the trigger this morning. Overall... I like the early trends we are seeing. winter may get off slow, but I think it will definitely get interesting. |
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Post by birddog on Nov 19, 2020 12:38:47 GMT -6
I was thinking while in the deer blind this morning, seems like we have had a lot of wind this year.
I might be wrong, but I don't remember having so many wind advisory and high wind warnings in one year. I know....2020!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 19, 2020 13:40:13 GMT -6
Maaaan, I seen a wasp this morning. Ugh!!!! Go away warm air.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 19, 2020 14:02:15 GMT -6
I hate wasps too! Which means it hasn’t been cold enough for them to fly to Florida!
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 19, 2020 18:09:57 GMT -6
Looks like Dave is on the " hardly a winter to talk about" train.
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 19, 2020 18:24:35 GMT -6
Looks like Dave is on the " hardly a winter to talk about" train. Hope like heck he is wrong. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2020 20:01:38 GMT -6
Looks like Dave is on the " hardly a winter to talk about" train. Dr. Cohen’s winter outlook wasn’t great either. He specifically targets the northeast, but obviously things like the PV would impact our region’s winter as well. Definitely still early, but a less than stellar start from my perspective. Need some of the big drivers to start moving in the right direction by mid December or the sweat really starts. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2020 20:24:04 GMT -6
I was thinking while in the deer blind this morning, seems like we have had a lot of wind this year. I might be wrong, but I don't remember having so many wind advisory and high wind warnings in one year. I know....2020! It definitely has been windy lately...the jet stream has been fast and the strong bermuda ridge has created tight pressure gradients with storms moving off the front range. The dry conditions also play a role. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 19, 2020 21:41:20 GMT -6
Doesn't look too bad to me...  |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 19, 2020 22:26:21 GMT -6
Agreed its rare to see average temps and above norm precip in winter. Could be fun. That winter forecast looks great.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2020 22:47:45 GMT -6
Doesn't look too bad to me... I’m not here to knock their forecast, but I have read that those charts sometimes can be pretty much overlayed with average La Niña outcomes. That isn’t really telling the whole story if it’s the primary driver of the forecast. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 19, 2020 23:17:38 GMT -6
Lots of people got 'burned' by last Winter after forecasting tons of cold and snow which for the most part never materialized or at least not to extent hyped about. Not surprising many are more hesitant this go around. Plus La Nina is strong so it's likely to be the primary driving factor but the MJO and AO/NAO will play their rules too, and overall it doesn't look good for prolonged excessive cold, which you don't want anyway if you want snow. It just has to be cold enough, deep enough through the column. La Nina years have given us some of the best snowy seasons, but also some of the worst. Adding in the 2020 factor and you've got a high bust forecast potential.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 19, 2020 23:21:34 GMT -6
Short term however, something could be brewing in the Dec 3rd - 8th time frame, and it could be in the form of something else besides just rain. Time will tell.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 20, 2020 1:36:46 GMT -6
I'm thinking back to the brutal late 70s winters. IIRC they are what spawned the concept of El Nino. When was the last time we had a couple of strong El Nino winters in a row?
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 20, 2020 4:17:02 GMT -6
Short term however, something could be brewing in the Dec 3rd - 8th time frame, and it could be in the form of something else besides just rain. Time will tell. So just........2 more weeks...... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 20, 2020 6:10:42 GMT -6
If we see any meaningful snow here before Dec 15 I'd be shocked.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 20, 2020 7:12:18 GMT -6
Unless something drastically changed, im not seeing any potential in early december. Overall wx pattern doesnt support a meaningful winter event, not saying it wont happen. I think there is a climatological bias in the models that far in the future that make things look more wintry than they are. I am betting mid december to just before christmas for our first real shot at winter. Even then, it could be a near miss.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 20, 2020 8:35:53 GMT -6
I mowed yesterday lol.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 20, 2020 8:41:10 GMT -6
Here is the updated yearly snowfall graph for St. Louis. The 30yr moving average has dropped to 16.9".  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 20, 2020 9:03:18 GMT -6
Here is the updated yearly snowfall graph for St. Louis. The 30yr moving average has dropped to 16.9". Are those accumulations January 1 to December 31? Or are they for winter seasons? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2020 9:12:15 GMT -6
Here is the updated yearly snowfall graph for St. Louis. The 30yr moving average has dropped to 16.9". Looks like every 70 years we are good for a moving average of around 30 inches. 2052 should be a great winter. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 20, 2020 9:17:44 GMT -6
Did Glenn provide any analog years to base his winter outlook on? His January was way different compared to Dave's.
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 20, 2020 9:24:33 GMT -6
Sadly, still mowing up here in northern IL. |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 20, 2020 9:44:31 GMT -6
Here is the updated yearly snowfall graph for St. Louis. The 30yr moving average has dropped to 16.9". Are those accumulations January 1 to December 31? Or are they for winter seasons? Winter Seasons. For example...the label 2018 is the 2018-19 season. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 20, 2020 10:00:17 GMT -6
It sure clouded up fast this morning!
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