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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 6, 2020 7:00:08 GMT -6
Good morning all... with so much bad news how about a hint of good news to start this fresh thread. The worries about Spring flooding seem to have eased a bit for the time being as we have managed to avoid bit late season snows to the north... as well as big beefy heavy rain events here in the Midwest. That's great news considering how far above normal we are for rain for the year to day. Although March was above normal, it was not all that extreme...and the rain that we have in the forecast this week does not look especially heavy either. All of this leads to some good news for those with flooding concerns. However, it is worth mentioning/reminding that it only takes one big rain event to change the tide...and we have seen our fare share of those in recent spring seasons. Let's hope this one is different! Stay safe, stay healthy..and most importantly...stay positive!  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 6, 2020 7:09:34 GMT -6
Trying not to get ahead of myself but very encouraging data regarding COVID-19 over the last couple days globally and here in the US and especially in MO. Many nations have clearly peaked and are on a steady downward trend. The US reported about 10K less cases yesterday than the day before. Could be a blip, but several hospitals are reporting encouraging trends too. Missouri had a big drop off yesterday and the day before. Need a couple more days of this or something similar to be convinced but I maintain my prediction that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 6, 2020 7:32:56 GMT -6
Trying not to get ahead of myself but very encouraging data regarding COVID-19 over the last couple days globally and here in the US and especially in MO. Many nations have clearly peaked and are on a steady downward trend. The US reported about 10K less cases yesterday than the day before. Could be a blip, but several hospitals are reporting encouraging trends too. Missouri had a big drop off yesterday and the day before. Need a couple more days of this or something similar to be convinced but I maintain my prediction that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately data reports on Sunday have always been extremely low. Then Monday and Tuesday it explodes. Just the way it works with who works on Sunday as far as reports and data go. If they are down again today I’ll be excited. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2020 7:36:54 GMT -6
Trying not to get ahead of myself but very encouraging data regarding COVID-19 over the last couple days globally and here in the US and especially in MO. Many nations have clearly peaked and are on a steady downward trend. The US reported about 10K less cases yesterday than the day before. Could be a blip, but several hospitals are reporting encouraging trends too. Missouri had a big drop off yesterday and the day before. Need a couple more days of this or something similar to be convinced but I maintain my prediction that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately data reports on Sunday have always been extremely low. Then Monday and Tuesday it explodes. Just the way it works with who works on Sunday as far as reports and data go. If they are down again today I’ll be excited. New York also has a disproportionate impact on the numbers. It could peak and then bring numbers down until the next major city takes off. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 6, 2020 7:56:17 GMT -6
Talking with my brother in Minnesota they were very concerned about flooding as well. But their snow melted slowly and the rains weren't as intense as expected. Their rivers are high, but not flooded. Since she had warned that their flooding would become our flooding their lack of flooding is also our lack of flooding.
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 6, 2020 9:57:17 GMT -6
Thanks, Chris, for a new fresh thread! I am hoping for normalcy by Memorial Day!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 6, 2020 10:06:11 GMT -6
Thanks, Chris, for a new fresh thread! I am hoping for normalcy by Memorial Day! I am not going to allow myself to get too excited at this point...until we get much more wideapread testing to manage the outbreaks. I have a real fear about rushing people back to work/school/sports, etc. and then having to do this all over again...because hot spots start firing up like spot storms in the summer heat as people throw caution to the wind. |
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 6, 2020 11:37:21 GMT -6
Trying not to get ahead of myself but very encouraging data regarding COVID-19 over the last couple days globally and here in the US and especially in MO. Many nations have clearly peaked and are on a steady downward trend. The US reported about 10K less cases yesterday than the day before. Could be a blip, but several hospitals are reporting encouraging trends too. Missouri had a big drop off yesterday and the day before. Need a couple more days of this or something similar to be convinced but I maintain my prediction that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. I just read a briefing this morning stating that a majority of hospitals do not report over the weekend. As much as I want to see the light at the end of the tunnel, I continue to preach and practice restraint. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 6, 2020 11:42:08 GMT -6
Ahhhh, i can smell the freshness!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2020 12:50:04 GMT -6
The 12z euro has a tax day special.
My God, what a beast
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2020 13:08:18 GMT -6
The 12z euro has a tax day special. My God, what a beast Holy cow...that would be a historic storm...200 hours out!
Models still show potential for a freeze Friday AM with 850mb temps running around -6*C but currently the ridge center is forecast to stay to the west which would prevent a hard freeze.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 6, 2020 13:08:25 GMT -6
The 12z euro has a tax day special. My God, what a beast it goes out to july 15? cool.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2020 13:29:23 GMT -6
Might need to start keeping an eye on a severe threat Wednesday afternoon or evening with the cold front...some models are showing moderate CAPE/dewpoints ahead of the front and mid-level winds are 40-50kts with quite a bit of veering/speed shear in the lowest 3km. The hi-res NAMs are pretty bullish with this, while other models have more modest dewpoint/CAPE values. These type of events can be sneaky.
The NAMs also develop storms across central/E MO Tuesday evening along the wind-shift and CAPE gradient. That's more questionable but worth mentioning. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 6, 2020 13:55:19 GMT -6
Latest Day 2 outlook added the metro on east into the slight risk  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 6, 2020 14:29:10 GMT -6
Might need to start keeping an eye on a severe threat Wednesday afternoon or evening with the cold front...some models are showing moderate CAPE/dewpoints ahead of the front and mid-level winds are 40-50kts with quite a bit of veering/speed shear in the lowest 3km. The hi-res NAMs are pretty bullish with this, while other models have more modest dewpoint/CAPE values. These type of events can be sneaky.
The NAMs also develop storms across central/E MO Tuesday evening along the wind-shift and CAPE gradient. That's more questionable but worth mentioning. 18z NAM has a solid line of elevated supercell blowing through here Wednesday evening |
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Post by tedrick65 on Apr 6, 2020 14:34:48 GMT -6
The 12z euro has a tax day special. My God, what a beast Holy cow...that would be a historic storm...200 hours out!
Models still show potential for a freeze Friday AM with 850mb temps running around -6*C but currently the ridge center is forecast to stay to the west which would prevent a hard freeze.
15" of pure concrete for central Missouri. We can then say we've seen everything. |
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 6, 2020 15:22:45 GMT -6
The 12z euro has a tax day special. My God, what a beast Excellent model agreement between the Euro and GFS on that one. Lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2020 15:55:05 GMT -6
The 12z euro has a tax day special. My God, what a beast Excellent model agreement between the Euro and GFS on that one. Lol. What's 40mb between friends? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2020 16:10:24 GMT -6
Excellent model agreement between the Euro and GFS on that one. Lol. What's 40mb between friends? Euro ensemble agrees with the operational. Pretty amazing show of strength on an ensemble. Too bad its in fantasyland on a model with a strength bias |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 6, 2020 16:43:25 GMT -6
Op models as well as the cpc look pretty chilly into mid april. Those in chicago could end up with a good snow in the next 2 weeks.
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 6, 2020 23:31:09 GMT -6
00z gfs is playing ball. That is a wicked upper-level reflection.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 6, 2020 23:42:05 GMT -6
Ukie has a 986 low bombing out over the area at the end of its run. There’s something brewing next week
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 7, 2020 6:24:39 GMT -6
Ensemble means are somewhat flatter and more southeast...So definitely playing the conservative game with this system.
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Post by jeepers on Apr 7, 2020 8:05:52 GMT -6
Missouri has not peaked in cases, especially with the numbers in STL County. With an incubation period of 1-14 days, we've not even had a week of total lockdown, so our numbers can't reflect that yet. Most of our cases are 'community spread'. So social distancing and hygiene are critical right now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 7, 2020 8:12:02 GMT -6
Missouri has not peaked in cases, especially with the numbers in STL County. With an incubation period of 1-14 days, we've not even had a week of total lockdown, so our numbers can't reflect that yet. Most of our cases are 'community spread'. So social distancing and hygiene are critical right now. Agree, but the projections keep getting pulled back to a closer and closer peak. I think it’s clear we are peaking nationally right now. I’m just pointing out the positives, no matter how subtle. I agree with Brtn that yes this is awful, but it’s not going to end up even close to the doomsday scenarios that some folks were predicting. Our actions helped keep that from happening in a big way. It’s unfortunate that even this became political. I do wish the surgeon general would stop broadcasting the worst case scenarios. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 7, 2020 8:16:09 GMT -6
The Euro 00z ensembles came in after my forecast went out...so just getting a chance to have a look. It is pretty nifty looking, more organized and in a favorable area for something interesting. The GEFS is more south and looks flatter. Obviously, it will take a near perfect set-up to get anything wintry around here. Lots to watch...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 7, 2020 8:22:25 GMT -6
Missouri has not peaked in cases, especially with the numbers in STL County. With an incubation period of 1-14 days, we've not even had a week of total lockdown, so our numbers can't reflect that yet. Most of our cases are 'community spread'. So social distancing and hygiene are critical right now. Agree, but the projections keep getting pulled back to a closer and closer peak. I think it’s clear we are peaking nationally right now. I’m just pointing out the positives, no matter how subtle. I agree with Brtn that yes this is awful, but it’s not going to end up even close to the doomsday scenarios that some folks were predicting. Our actions helped keep that from happening in a big way. It’s unfortunate that even this became political. I do wish the surgeon general would stop broadcasting the worst case scenarios. Let me play devil's advocate....if the big numbers are not shared... do we as a public feel as compelled to stay home? Probably not. Honestly, this is like forecasting weather and a winter storm. We have to give out the best information we have so people know what is possible. Now I try not to get into forecasting road conditions too much because I don't know how DOTs are going to respond. Road crews respond well...roads are ok. Road crews don't respond well, roads are a disaster. Same is true of the virus. If people don't handle the virus well and go out in public, then this thing explodes. If they do what their told and stay home, it is better controlled. There are actually a lot of similarities to weather forecasting. |
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 7, 2020 8:58:59 GMT -6
Chris Higgins is a very smart man and we have to be smart in
A pandemic not relying on our wants and needs! I know we feel cooped up and we can step outside these next couple days since parks are closed! Then it will get cold again and we can pretend it’s winter and
Hunker down again!
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 7, 2020 9:11:34 GMT -6
There will always be the idiots that say "well, see that wasn't bad at all, MSM lied again", The fact it won't be as bad as originally thought is because of the stay at home measures taken, and MOST but not ALL people doing it. Also these are models they are looking at..you guys are familiar with models right? A lot of them suck and are only as good as the info put into them. Testing has messed this up from the beginning..in 8 weeks a country of 350 million has had 1.7 mil tests. Pathetic and uncalled for.
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Post by jeepers on Apr 7, 2020 9:15:51 GMT -6
I agree with Chris. People's understanding and ability to translate that to behavior with this virus are limited unless you give them the worst case scenario. Here's the thing, if we do this half assed out here, WE can still explode, while others flatten if they're doing it 'right'. It's ALL about human behavior right now.
And I completely agree that this is like weather modeling. Only it's like inventing the model AND the testing equipment AND learning about a particular weather system's unique characteristics, all at the same time, while in the middle of the storm.
Editing this to add: Well, in order to have a test, first they had to get the genome from the Chinese as this is a novel virus. Then we had to invent a test. Then test the test. Then manufacture and distribute it. And then realize the test takes too long. So then invent a new test, test the test, manufacture and distribute it...
It's not like we had a boatload of tests in some warehouse somewhere, we had to create it out of whole cloth.
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