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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2020 19:38:39 GMT -6
Sometimes you have to look at more than the MOS data Friday was a no brainer to me...pre-frontal with a S/SW flow and thinning clouds always argues for warmer than MOS. And today with the morning precip, clouds and cool advection through the day, you'd expect to go cooler. So yeah...it helps to actually consider the conditions in place and not read off numbers. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2020 19:42:07 GMT -6
It's sure starting to look like a hard freeze threat is setting up for Friday and possibly Saturday as well. Very cold airmass for this time of year sweeping down across the Midwest with re-enforcing shots looking likely behind it into mid-month. Just terrible timing with spring coming on full bore earlier in the week.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2020 7:28:02 GMT -6
It's sure starting to look like a hard freeze threat is setting up for Friday and possibly Saturday as well. Very cold airmass for this time of year sweeping down across the Midwest with re-enforcing shots looking likely behind it into mid-month. Just terrible timing with spring coming on full bore earlier in the week. Gfs has backed off on this now the last couple runs. Let’s hope that trend continues. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 9:39:09 GMT -6
It's sure starting to look like a hard freeze threat is setting up for Friday and possibly Saturday as well. Very cold airmass for this time of year sweeping down across the Midwest with re-enforcing shots looking likely behind it into mid-month. Just terrible timing with spring coming on full bore earlier in the week. Gfs has backed off on this now the last couple runs. Let’s hope that trend continues. Yeah I noticed both the Euro and GFS are more progressive with the trof and cold air...the GEM is still pretty darn cold though. Let's hope that trend continues for sure! |
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Post by REB on Apr 5, 2020 10:12:14 GMT -6
Two questions:
1.) Is anyone getting a pop up on their iPads or macs when they go into the blog? It just takes me to another page, almost every time, which is a bogus ad site. This is extremely frustrating.
2.) Has anyone watched "Aeronauts" on Amazon Prime?
Thanks in advance.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2020 10:19:01 GMT -6
I keep getting redirected to some look alike google site when I get on the blog on my phone
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2020 10:35:28 GMT -6
Two questions: 1.) Is anyone getting a pop up on their iPads or macs when they go into the blog? It just takes me to another page, almost every time, which is a bogus ad site. This is extremely frustrating. 2.) Has anyone watched "Aeronauts" on Amazon Prime? Thanks in advance. I hate Apple..so no. Aeronauts I posted on here a few months ago. I like it, thought it was kinda thrilling. Others think it was "meh" and changed too many things from reality. |
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Post by REB on Apr 5, 2020 10:40:40 GMT -6
I keep getting redirected to some look alike google site when I get on the blog on my phone Happening on the phone too. Lots of adobe and flash player nonsense. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2020 10:40:54 GMT -6
Im in the middle of high frustration. I changed my password for my home email account. Everything switched fine online for webmail and my cell phone. But my outlook365 no longer works, even after changing my password in outlook! I am beyond frustrated.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2020 11:42:35 GMT -6
Looks like another underperforming day for temps. Damn clouds.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2020 12:05:52 GMT -6
There are hints that COVID-19 cases are beginning to slow nationally. Governor Cuomo in NY just said something similar. Please be the beginning of the end.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 13:32:39 GMT -6
There are hints that COVID-19 cases are beginning to slow nationally. Governor Cuomo in NY just said something similar. Please be the beginning of the end. If you go by Italy's curve and adjust for a couple weeks delay for onset, we're probably looking at 10-15 more days before we peak...although more rural areas may show a lag. But unless it ramps up like wildfire, most of the death toll figures will end up way overblown like they were with H1N1. Some experts were projecting that number in the hundreds of thousands to possibly over a million in the US...and that just doesn't look to be realistic at this point. |
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 5, 2020 13:41:31 GMT -6
There are hints that COVID-19 cases are beginning to slow nationally. Governor Cuomo in NY just said something similar. Please be the beginning of the end. If you go by Italy's curve and adjust for a couple weeks delay for onset, we're probably looking at 10-15 more days before we peak...although more rural areas may show a lag. But unless it ramps up like wildfire, most of the death toll figures will end up way overblown like they were with H1N1. Some experts were projecting that number in the hundreds of thousands to possibly over a million in the US...and that just doesn't look to be realistic at this point. As long as we remain below hospital capacity, we will be fine. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 13:53:25 GMT -6
If you go by Italy's curve and adjust for a couple weeks delay for onset, we're probably looking at 10-15 more days before we peak...although more rural areas may show a lag. But unless it ramps up like wildfire, most of the death toll figures will end up way overblown like they were with H1N1. Some experts were projecting that number in the hundreds of thousands to possibly over a million in the US...and that just doesn't look to be realistic at this point. As long as we remain below hospital capacity, we will be fine. Have you seen the footage from people filming at hospitals around the country and other parts of the world with hardly anyone around including the testing sites? It certainly doesn't fit the narrative of the MSM...perhaps there's some cherry picking going on with that footage, but it's starting to become more and more obvious that this just isn't what it was built up to be. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2020 13:55:53 GMT -6
of course who knows how many people died of 'lung or pneumonia' issues that weren't reported as covid 19 because they occurred before they really kept tabs, because the testing was a disaster...and still is a disaster. I firmly believe many millions of people have this thing right now. we will never really know the precise death toll because of this, unless we dig people up and test.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2020 13:57:52 GMT -6
yeah, and have you seen the videos by actual doctors that are begging for supplies and saying they are at their whits end?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 5, 2020 15:03:02 GMT -6
My personal favorite is the pictures of DRs treating dummies.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 15:05:46 GMT -6
I don't disagree with any of that. But I'm guessing overrun hospitals are the exception to the rule and isolated to densely populated areas. I could be completely wrong...it's hard to know what's really going on with this, and the media is at least partially to blame for that because they always favor sensationalism over sensible reporting.
There's almost surely a sizable number of people that died from complications and weren't tallied because of not being tested. But there's also the flip side of that, where people died from other causes and simply tested positive for COVID and were counted. But, according to official counts, were still in the 4 figures and not 6 or 7.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2020 15:32:44 GMT -6
You can downplay it all you want. If the country was up and running the death total would have been in the 7 figures
Beating the projections is a good thing. This was obviously way worse than our “typical flu” because of it’s ability to spread from asymptomatic people, the number of additional people each infected one could infect, the mortality rate, and a lack of a vaccine.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 15:55:34 GMT -6
I didn't say that projections coming up short was a bad thing...of course it's good! And it is substantially worse than the flu, and looking like the death rate will top H1N1 which was around 12k in the US.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2020 17:06:24 GMT -6
Models at least hinting at a storm late next weekend that could have some wet snow involved across the region.
Very impressive shot of cold air for this time of year.
Odds are very low, but something to look at besides watch paint dry
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 5, 2020 17:49:46 GMT -6
Models at least hinting at a storm late next weekend that could have some wet snow involved across the region. Very impressive shot of cold air for this time of year. Odds are very low, but something to look at besides watch paint dry If any pattern will produce snow in April, that would be the one. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 18:22:39 GMT -6
Yeah, the blocking is starting to do it's thing later this week according to models...hopefully it's not as cold as it looks.
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 5, 2020 18:30:02 GMT -6
 Looks like the core the cold will be over the Lakes and the NE. I would guess while we get some shots of cold, hopefully they will be quick hits. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2020 18:35:54 GMT -6
I have a feeling the models are overdoing the cold in the medium range. That was a common theme all winter long
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 5, 2020 18:36:55 GMT -6
I have a feeling the models are overdoing the cold in the medium range. That was a common theme all winter long My guess too |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2020 19:00:37 GMT -6
Hopefully that's the case because models are showing some cross polar flow with the -EPO and the ridge in E Siberia/Eurasia. The -NAO definitely looks east based going forward which would favor the N/E US for the bulk of the cold air. The models continue to show a cold bias in that range for sure.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 5, 2020 19:16:38 GMT -6
One thing I've learned during this pandemic is that there are a lot of people who have no problem believing in the science of weather forecasting, but will believe just about any crazy theory on COVID19.
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 5, 2020 21:15:09 GMT -6
NAM nest starting to pick up on the pseudo-mcs popping along the cape gradient Tuesday afternoon.
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 5, 2020 22:06:10 GMT -6
As long as we remain below hospital capacity, we will be fine. Have you seen the footage from people filming at hospitals around the country and other parts of the world with hardly anyone around including the testing sites? It certainly doesn't fit the narrative of the MSM...perhaps there's some cherry picking going on with that footage, but it's starting to become more and more obvious that this just isn't what it was built up to be. Considering IL is in the process of standing up multiple field hospitals in different locations throughout the state tells me this is going to get worse before it gets better. I still see entire families shopping together. Walmart is still packed. Sams club. The local farm store barely had any parking just on Friday. Most are going about their day a-symptomatic but spreading the love to everything else. |
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