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Post by jeepers on Feb 22, 2020 9:01:52 GMT -6
The weather may be boring us to tears, my backyard is a half destroyed mud field, but holy jumpin, the Blues last night! Extra skippy bonus points with Jamie Benn’s post game comments. LGB!
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Post by REB on Feb 22, 2020 9:03:25 GMT -6
I really need a snow fall that would cover the grass . I missed the 8 incher and have had nothing but dustings the rest of the season.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2020 10:59:00 GMT -6
00z EURO and GEM both support at least snow showers across the region on Wednesday and develop a deformation/TROWAL across central IL. Good track of the 500mb low/vort max across the area. This is definitely a watcher for us...
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 22, 2020 11:37:42 GMT -6
4 different models, 4 different solutions for us. All are plausible as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2020 11:44:54 GMT -6
GEFS is bleak to say the least
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 22, 2020 11:55:24 GMT -6
00z EURO and GEM both support at least snow showers across the region on Wednesday and develop a deformation/TROWAL across central IL. Good track of the 500mb low/vort max across the area. This is definitely a watcher for us... Did you move to Chicago?  |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 22, 2020 12:16:02 GMT -6
00z EURO and GEM both support at least snow showers across the region on Wednesday and develop a deformation/TROWAL across central IL. Good track of the 500mb low/vort max across the area. This is definitely a watcher for us... I will be watching this go north. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2020 12:19:17 GMT -6
this is nothing for stl All north. models starting to agree on this.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2020 12:20:41 GMT -6
I think this may even go north of WSC
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 22, 2020 12:25:47 GMT -6
There’s anything but model agreement at this stage
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2020 12:30:35 GMT -6
lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 22, 2020 12:31:39 GMT -6
I think this may even go north of WSC Been this way all year. Not surprised |
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 22, 2020 12:33:00 GMT -6
AT LEAST BASEBALL IS BACK!  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 22, 2020 12:41:43 GMT -6
Watching the Cardinals as we speak, bring on spring and baseball! High school baseball starts next Monday, I’m officially done with winter, I wish it would just start torching
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2020 13:50:49 GMT -6
You guys are writing this one off pretty quickly...the upper pattern argues for the shortwave to dig into the S Plains and potentially eject favorably...today's model trend is north but this could easily come south enough for snow showers at least. A lot will depend on the timing of the upstream ridge de-amplifying and that's often not well forecast at this range since shortwaves out in the Pacific affect that.
Ya'll see the 12z GEM?
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 22, 2020 14:20:09 GMT -6
You guys are writing this one off pretty quickly...the upper pattern argues for the shortwave to dig into the S Plains and potentially eject favorably...today's model trend is north but this could easily come south enough for snow showers at least. A lot will depend on the timing of the upstream ridge de-amplifying and that's often not well forecast at this range since shortwaves out in the Pacific affect that. Ya'll see the 12z GEM? have to wonder if this is one of those times the gem has it a day or two earlier than everyone else. It's seemed to be the most consistent with the pattern in the past several runs. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 22, 2020 14:29:08 GMT -6
what does 12z GEM show?
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 22, 2020 14:31:10 GMT -6
I wanted to make sure I wasn’t losing my mind, but just a glance at the 12z surface maps reveals this at hour 72.
GFS- 1001mb surface low in Central IN
EURO - 1003mb surface low in southern IN
CAN- 1004mb surface low in S. IL
UKIE - 1005mb surface low in N. Central KY
I would hardly call just that one hour in time or the evolution of how they got there, as some with snarky keyboards would call it, model agreement.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2020 14:33:07 GMT -6
You guys are writing this one off pretty quickly...the upper pattern argues for the shortwave to dig into the S Plains and potentially eject favorably...today's model trend is north but this could easily come south enough for snow showers at least. A lot will depend on the timing of the upstream ridge de-amplifying and that's often not well forecast at this range since shortwaves out in the Pacific affect that. Ya'll see the 12z GEM? Even the GEM ensembles are trending north. The euro and gfs ensembles are way way north. Just not feeling this one |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 22, 2020 15:17:20 GMT -6
As someone who spent all winter trying to will these things into fruition I implore you to save yourself and throw it in now. It hurts much less that way.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2020 15:37:45 GMT -6
As someone who spent all winter trying to will these things into fruition I implore you to save yourself and throw it in now. It hurts much less that way. Brtn is correct IMO... you can no more write this off than you can write it in. Turning your back on a system that is 4 days out is a recipe for a nasty suprise. That doesnt mean Im excited about it (im not)... but Im also not ready to pull the plug. A lot of what this entails is managing expectations from the get go. History is full of storms that did not show up in guidance until the three day mark. Just as it is littered with even more examples of fantasy storms that showed up for days only to ghost us at the finish line. I for one am about ready for Spring anyway. |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 22, 2020 16:07:50 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 22, 2020 16:31:57 GMT -6
I think it’s hard to argue against northwestern Illinois as the sweetspot
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 22, 2020 16:57:58 GMT -6
April, That's the month that has me worried the most about severe thunderstorm chances and significant tornadoes here. But anytime from that last week of March to the first 2 weeks of May could be rocking and rolling here before a dry spell sets in for late May into much of June. Not thrilled about big snows here in the meantime but like others have said, can't write it off either. However given the trends this season/year we're pretty much in the stick a fork in it It's d.o.n.e. phase. Always room for a surprise but just not really feeling it nor desire it at this stage of the game.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 22, 2020 17:04:43 GMT -6
All things said if the pattern that's dominated us for most of the season remains than we could be in for perhaps the biggest/strongest severe storm season in awhile. Not just here but nationally as a whole, especially after several years of generally below normal tornado counts. I think last year was closer to normal but this season could see us well above it if the ingredients all line up just right. Looking at 2 'cores' of activity. One from southern Indiana into southern 2/3rs of Illinois, much of Missouri into Arkansas and western Kentucky and Tennessee with another area later on in the season across Minnesota into the Dakotas and Nebraska. The 'traditional' tornado alley in Kansas into Texas will see some action for sure but thinking its below average to at best close to average there. Long dart throw out there but MCS season looks solid from late June into mid August through the plains into the Ohio Valley area. Really liking the idea of more thunderstorms locally in general than in the past few years...
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2020 18:53:32 GMT -6
I think if it trends favorably- we have a shot... if it doesn’t it will be unfavorable for us to see anything
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 22, 2020 18:56:51 GMT -6
I think if it trends favorably- we have a shot... if it doesn’t it will be unfavorable for us to see anything That is enlightening. Namaste |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2020 19:00:00 GMT -6
Thank you very little
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2020 19:01:38 GMT -6
I’d say the chance of snow here is 50/50
Either it happens or it doesn’t
Thanks for attending my TED talk
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2020 19:04:58 GMT -6
I’d say the chance of snow here is 50/50 Either it happens or it doesn’t Thanks for attending my TED talk I completely agree- 40% |
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