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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 14, 2020 22:27:59 GMT -6
Down to 18 degrees already tonight..... I guess that’s about as low as they will go
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2020 8:49:47 GMT -6
Looks like Feb 24-27 could be very Active.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2020 8:54:50 GMT -6
And lol at the nam at 84 hours
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2020 9:17:40 GMT -6
Agreed. MJO says there will be some cold air available. Other teleconnections just absolutely stink though. Looks like they’re going to need a new chart for the AO.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 15, 2020 9:33:21 GMT -6
And lol at the nam at 84 hours On a Wednesday no less😂 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2020 9:58:58 GMT -6
Some cool looking clouds out there this morning. Almost look like mini mammantus clouds
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2020 10:06:21 GMT -6
We can’t loose our 6 week streak of winter precipitation mid week
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Feb 15, 2020 11:03:22 GMT -6
Some cool looking clouds out there this morning. Almost look like mini mammantus clouds I said the same thing to the hubs as we were leaving the gym this morning at 9. It sort of looked like the aftermath of a thunderstorm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2020 11:18:33 GMT -6
And lol at the nam at 84 hours There are more than a few GEFS members that agree with the NAM. No support at all from the foreign models |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2020 11:22:33 GMT -6
And lol at the nam at 84 hours There are more than a few GEFS members that agree with the NAM. No support at all from the foreign models Not much vorticity tucked back in the base of the trof but you would think at least a weak wave would develop given the depth of the trof and the baroclinic zone in place...US models could be onto something. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2020 11:27:06 GMT -6
The confluence that develops and the strength of the surface ridge looks pretty crushing though...
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 15, 2020 11:41:21 GMT -6
Some cool looking clouds out there this morning. Almost look like mini mammantus clouds Yeah from what I saw, I thought they were mammatus clouds. Very cool for mid Feb as these are associated usually with outflow boundaries! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 15, 2020 16:46:36 GMT -6
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 15, 2020 20:33:27 GMT -6
Crickets...
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Post by amstilost on Feb 15, 2020 21:35:45 GMT -6
And lol at the nam at 84 hours The same at 78hrs on the 0z run......but south. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2020 22:02:49 GMT -6
By tomorrow it will be well south of Missouri just like every other model. Looks like we will have to wait a week or two for any possible winter weather. We’re getting into the late winter season we’re we need a lot of things to go right to get any type of winter storms in St Louis. Hopefully we can get 1-2 more storms to track .
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2020 22:12:15 GMT -6
Took plow and spreader off of one truck today and plan to take it off the other one tomorrow.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2020 22:19:40 GMT -6
The models are well, all yawn.
But, I believe it’s premature to take snow removal equipment off of vehicles.
After near record high AOs almost all winter and an EPO that’s been near record highs as well, what goes up must come down. That could very well happen in late Feb/early March.
However, my prediction for February hasn’t come to fruition so that gives less confidence for this one as well.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 15, 2020 23:01:55 GMT -6
Any 70s showing up soon? Lol don’t shoot
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2020 23:06:18 GMT -6
AO and NAO both look to crash late month. I think winter has one more last hurrah atleast
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2020 23:53:46 GMT -6
Looking at the ensembles, looks like a storm will impact the middle of the country the 25th-27th. Should have a cold air connection to
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 16, 2020 8:37:17 GMT -6
While there isn’t any mention or storms to look at as far as winter precipitation goes that would mean It’s not premature to remove equipment from trucks if there is other work that needs to be done.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2020 9:06:46 GMT -6
12z nam looks substantially more interesting Wednesday night
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 16, 2020 9:11:44 GMT -6
AO and NAO both look to crash late month. I think winter has one more last hurrah atleast I totally agree...AO and NAO are going to crash eventually it's only a matter of time. Maddogchief and others have talked about how the teleconnections change so quickly with each update tho so it's hard to pinpoint when. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 16, 2020 9:18:10 GMT -6
The models are well, all yawn. But, I believe it’s premature to take snow removal equipment off of vehicles. After near record high AOs almost all winter and an EPO that’s been near record highs as well, what goes up must come down. That could very well happen in late Feb/early March. However, my prediction for February hasn’t come to fruition so that gives less confidence for this one as well. I think seeing more cold air available looks promising to me. Emphasis on a bookend winter even tho we had some non rain lower impact events in between. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 16, 2020 9:34:46 GMT -6
Took plow and spreader off of one truck today and plan to take it off the other one tomorrow. Thanks tilawn! If anything will get us a winter storm this will! |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 16, 2020 9:58:20 GMT -6
While there isn’t any mention or storms to look at as far as winter precipitation goes that would mean It’s not premature to remove equipment from trucks if there is other work that needs to be done. I understand the business side of things. It wasn’t meant to be insulting. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2020 10:09:12 GMT -6
It’s not completely impossible for that HP to move farther NE and allow this thing to come north. You can tell it’s trying to.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2020 11:27:31 GMT -6
If we can get some room between the jet exiting across the Lakes and the trough trying to develop across the SW like the NAM is hinting... we have a shot. If the jet across the lakes backbuilds like the nearly all the models have been showing- this keeps the SW trough from being able to wrap up and suppresses the system.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 16, 2020 11:49:28 GMT -6
Gfs and especially gem are closer to making it happen, so I haven’t completely given up. Gem supports a solid snow across OK...once it reaches that far north it rarely gets squashed. The models have also repeatedly over forecast the strength of the HP’s so there’s still a chance.
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