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Post by birddog on Dec 14, 2019 9:09:02 GMT -6
So do I put the plow on yet? Wait till tomorrow? Out where you are is looking at 4-8" Thanks Friv, but my question was geared more towards the "JINX" factor! PS. Small to moderate hamsters falling here. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2019 9:09:08 GMT -6
The nam would even swipe the southern areas with a touch of snow on phase 2. This is usually the point where we start to see the models sort out the space between phase 1 and 2. If other models keep the cooler trend going I’m going to become concerned about ice. Though the accretion is much less at 30/31. A degree or two is huge. This is one of those setups where folks around Farmington area and up there in elevation see pronounced differences in icing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 9:12:00 GMT -6
The HRRR and RAP are way South
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 14, 2019 9:29:15 GMT -6
Nothing falling here. Just can’t seem to get this precip shield to move my way.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 9:32:32 GMT -6
Had some light to borderline moderate snow in Wildwood. Setting the mood for tomorrow!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 9:36:22 GMT -6
06z euro ensemble probability of 3" or more  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 14, 2019 9:37:06 GMT -6
Things are really jumping up as we approach the Sunday-Monday system. Did not expect this system to get any bigger then maybe 1-3 inches. It could very well just be that. But it could also bring some very pleasurable surprises for most. 😁😊
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 9:37:51 GMT -6
Had some light to borderline moderate snow in Wildwood. Setting the mood for tomorrow! Only a few wondering flakes here in Chesterfield so far. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 14, 2019 9:38:30 GMT -6
Man if the 12z GFS comes in hot. We might be talking warning criteria storm, ya think?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 9:39:19 GMT -6
The 12z RGEM IS WAY SOUTH OF THE NAM.
ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED ALONG 44 THROUGH THE METRO.
LIKE 6-10".
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 14, 2019 9:41:54 GMT -6
The 12z RGEM IS WAY SOUTH OF THE NAM. ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED ALONG 44 THROUGH THE METRO. LIKE 6-10". MY GOD. |
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Dec 14, 2019 9:42:20 GMT -6
What a beautiful snow we had coming down! We ended up with a heavy dusting here in Silex!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 9:43:00 GMT -6
Had some light to borderline moderate snow in Wildwood. Setting the mood for tomorrow! Only a few wondering flakes here in Chesterfield so far. It was mostly light. Now just like you said. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 9:43:06 GMT -6
The 12z gfs gives stl essentially nothing
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 9:43:31 GMT -6
One thing to consider (among many) that is easy to forget sometimes when you get sucked into a building storm. It is not at all unusual for the models to over estimate the southeastern edge of the heavy snow in the snowfall maps. This is going to be a fun little system for sure. I'm going to keep a skeptical eye to some of the bigger totals showing up...especially anywhere south of I-70.
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 14, 2019 9:45:21 GMT -6
One of my favorite things about winter on this board are Frivs' updates after a double chocolate model run!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 9:45:48 GMT -6
The 12z gfs gives stl essentially nothing Its juicy but icy for the metro, atleast wave 1 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 9:47:48 GMT -6
The 12z gfs gives stl essentially nothing What model run are you looking at? Through 60 hours... it has 2 to 8 inches from southeast to northwest across the metro. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 9:49:40 GMT -6
solid wave two on the GFS
thats a good run
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2019 9:55:25 GMT -6
Keep it coming south. If we are gonna do this ice thing I’d rather do it all the way then finish it off with at least an inch or two of snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 9:55:42 GMT -6
wave two looks like it will make or break this system
wave one looks to be a mess of p-types with ice being dominant the further south you go
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 10:07:34 GMT -6
The 12z gfs gives stl essentially nothing What model run are you looking at? Through 60 hours... it has 2 to 8 inches from southeast to northwest across the metro. I was referring to the WAA portion. Model output has essentially no accumulating snow South of 70 with that part. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 10:09:12 GMT -6
Phase one is a tough one to nail down. Normally, ahead of a deepening system... the low level WAA makes it further north than modeled. But this is a different story. We have a shearing system with the LLJ amping up initially...but then veering east fairly rapidly...which will shutdown the WAA aloft. The key to phase 1 is figuring out how fast that process unfolds.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 10:09:45 GMT -6
What model run are you looking at? Through 60 hours... it has 2 to 8 inches from southeast to northwest across the metro. I was referring to the WAA portion. Model output has essentially no accumulating snow South of 70 with that part. Gotya... after I posted that I realized you may not have seen phase 2 yet....or maybe I was looking at the wrong run...which has happened before. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 10:14:15 GMT -6
I just hope the WAA part is about to produce for us.
We really need the last vort max to come out a little further South than currently shown.
Although they're is some nice trends on the h5 charts hinting at a bit more suppression.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 10:17:06 GMT -6
RAP and HRRR 15Z and 12Z respectively still say round 1 is still very much on the table.
Models are about as sweet as they can be, a nice reverse from last night.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 14, 2019 10:18:34 GMT -6
12Z GFS has 0.85" of QPF for the airport for the event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 10:23:04 GMT -6
GEM is a nice thump for the metro with wave one.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 10:32:27 GMT -6
GFS showing some serious ice from Jeffco Missouri into St. Clair county, IL.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 10:44:25 GMT -6
Trying to hand jam some maps to explain this and add up my totals.... it is messy.
I really hope the Euro comes in and confirms my thoughts.
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