|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2019 20:51:04 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2019 20:57:34 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 25, 2019 21:11:51 GMT -6
I would not doubt if we see some sort of wind advisory. Pretty sure that meets the criteria. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 26, 2019 0:36:46 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 26, 2019 7:08:40 GMT -6
As expected an enhanced risk was added, from st louis on south
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Nov 26, 2019 7:12:22 GMT -6
Looks to get quite dangerous tonight
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 26, 2019 7:56:42 GMT -6
Blizzard warning for much of northeast Colorado this morning.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 26, 2019 7:57:31 GMT -6
HRRR seems to show the first wave of showers and storms kind of sapping the energy from the squall line for later tonight.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 26, 2019 8:19:39 GMT -6
Gotta love the timing of these systems. After a relatively pleasant week, gfs has another plains system next weekend bringing more rain and wind to our area. Im wondering if i will ever get my christmas lights up. I checked the ao and nao the other day as well. These cutters are consistent with those outlooks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 26, 2019 9:21:36 GMT -6
HRRR seems to show the first wave of showers and storms kind of sapping the energy from the squall line for later tonight. Dynamics still look good along the front for low topped supercells and even a bowing line segment. All you need is a very small amount of instability with setups like this for severe storms |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Nov 26, 2019 9:55:40 GMT -6
An argument could be made for pulling the ENH risk area a tad further north to include the entire metro area. CAMs are modestly aggressive with convection just north of I-70 as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 26, 2019 10:08:54 GMT -6
Hrrr has some high Sig Tor values this evening  |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Nov 26, 2019 10:13:04 GMT -6
What time do we expect the rain to start today?
TIA
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Nov 26, 2019 10:18:13 GMT -6
There could multiple waves starting anytime after noon. The big show will occur when the front and dryline approach the area around 9'ish tonight.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Nov 26, 2019 10:23:30 GMT -6
15Z HRRR has a modest UH track that starts in NW AR and races into Franklin and St. Charles Counties where it peaks and then makes it to Indiana all within 7 hours. I've seen multiple CAM runs including the experimental HRRRv4 and the GFDL's 3km GFS showing potent convection on right in the heart of the metro area tonight.
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Nov 26, 2019 10:31:40 GMT -6
Well, Corner-ites, we were all wondering when the fall severe season was starting! I guess that’s today!
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 26, 2019 11:04:37 GMT -6
The concerning part about this evening's setup is that it seems to favor semi-discrete or QLCS structures vs. a forced squall line...couple that with swift storm motions and timing after dark it's one to watch closely.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 26, 2019 11:32:24 GMT -6
Do we think that first cluster later afternoon/early evening could be severe in its own right? Even the Fox2 Interactive radar simulation has multiple hooked cells which is concerning.
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 26, 2019 11:33:32 GMT -6
Sleeting up here, they were only calling for rain.
Guess I'll be racing the front home to STL.
|
|
Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
|
Post by Jeke on Nov 26, 2019 12:38:51 GMT -6
Sleeting up here, they were only calling for rain. Guess I'll be racing the front home to STL. Don't envy your drive back but if you have to race please do it safely. Sure you'll be fine if you can avoid the increasing number of nuts on the road. Good Luck! |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Nov 26, 2019 13:10:49 GMT -6
High wimd warning just north of metro. I am suprised they did not include the metro. No matter what looks like everyone gets damaging winds tonight of 50 to 60 after the front blows.through
|
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 26, 2019 13:21:30 GMT -6
So are these high winds more tonight and early tomorrow morning? Gives me an idea about planning what time to leave with the trailer in the morning.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 26, 2019 13:26:31 GMT -6
So are these high winds more tonight and early tomorrow morning? Gives me an idea about planning what time to leave with the trailer in the morning. Frontal passage(midnightish) until tomorrow mid day |
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Nov 26, 2019 13:34:41 GMT -6
Here comes the rain to Festusland!
|
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 26, 2019 13:43:05 GMT -6
So are these high winds more tonight and early tomorrow morning? Gives me an idea about planning what time to leave with the trailer in the morning. Frontal passage(midnightish) until tomorrow mid day Ok. I wont rush in the morning to leave. Id like to get there before dark, so if I wait till 10 or 11, I should get there before it gets too dark. I know Springfield MO. warning is until noon. If it's too bad, we will just hold off until Thursday morning. Rather miss out on the trip rather than risk my life. |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Nov 26, 2019 13:58:49 GMT -6
Through the 25th of this month Lambert is -6.7* for the avg temp. It looks on track to be -5 or maybe even at -6. That's a pretty good start in my book. It doesn't look like December of this year will repeat the warmth of last year's either. How does the NAO and EPO look in the near future?
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Nov 26, 2019 14:07:29 GMT -6
Enhanced risk pushed sout but slight still for everyone
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 26, 2019 14:11:41 GMT -6
Through the 25th of this month Lambert is -6.7* for the avg temp. It looks on track to be -5 or maybe even at -6. That's a pretty good start in my book. It doesn't look like December of this year will repeat the warmth of last year's either. How does the NAO and EPO look in the near future? Yesterday EPO and NAO looked very great in terms of winter weather potential both being strongly negative. Now they prog to be slightly negative to neutral. So who the hell knows. |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Nov 26, 2019 14:20:26 GMT -6
Through the 25th of this month Lambert is -6.7* for the avg temp. It looks on track to be -5 or maybe even at -6. That's a pretty good start in my book. It doesn't look like December of this year will repeat the warmth of last year's either. How does the NAO and EPO look in the near future? Yesterday EPO and NAO looked very great in terms of winter weather potential both being strongly negative. Now they prog to be slightly negative to neutral. So who the hell knows. Haha..thanks for the reply. I always have to remind myself we don't need the arctic hammer for snow. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 26, 2019 14:29:23 GMT -6
Sounds like the same winds will likely ground the balloons in the Macy's Thanksgiving parade
|
|
