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Post by weatherj on Nov 24, 2019 12:38:28 GMT -6
Lambert is still running -7.9* for this month. Obviously the next few days will put a dent in that, but Wednesday and Thursday's cool down should temper the damage from being too bad. I'd say -5* for a finish is a good bet.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 24, 2019 12:49:32 GMT -6
I pray it does not snow at all. I have to drive to salina ks for Thanksgiving
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 24, 2019 13:44:24 GMT -6
Ajd, for the same reason as u but near Columbia MO!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2019 15:07:10 GMT -6
This pattern looks to lay down a very healthy snowpack across the upper Midwest. Can’t be a bad thing as we head into the winter months
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 24, 2019 21:21:14 GMT -6
Anyone notice a long cloud running basically north to south tonight? Just had the dog out and saw it. Possible smoke or steam? It's the only cloud in the sky tonight too.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 24, 2019 21:27:38 GMT -6
The NAM and perhaps even the ECM suggest there may be a threat for some mini low-topped supercells from about central/northern MO on to the northeast Tuesday night. I'm talking about the area in closer to the surface low / triple point and under the cool mid-level air. Very marginal setup and a big IF at the moment given the lack of robust moisture return and low instability in modeling.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 24, 2019 21:30:55 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 24, 2019 23:18:25 GMT -6
Could see 50+ winds Tuesday night- decent lapse rates tapping into some strong winds aloft
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Post by dschreib on Nov 25, 2019 8:35:20 GMT -6
Could see 50+ winds Tuesday night- decent lapse rates tapping into some strong winds aloft I'll take sustained 20-25 to dry out the yard for $100, Alex. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2019 9:01:32 GMT -6
12z nam is close to if not showing heavy snow Thanksgiving evening
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 25, 2019 9:03:00 GMT -6
12z nam is close to if not showing heavy snow Thanksgiving evening Couple degrees too warm unfortunately. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2019 9:08:55 GMT -6
12z nam is close to if not showing heavy snow Thanksgiving evening Couple degrees too warm unfortunately. 850 temps drop below 0. Very close to hamsters |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 25, 2019 9:37:06 GMT -6
Severe probabilities really ramping up Tuesday.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 25, 2019 9:48:50 GMT -6
Severe probabilities really ramping up Tuesday. Time of day isn't ideal but there definitely could be some strong storms. I agree it does look potentially nasty. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2019 10:23:52 GMT -6
all mesos have hopped onto the idea of a stout low topped supercell environment at least...
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 25, 2019 10:35:19 GMT -6
Couple degrees too warm unfortunately. 850 temps drop below 0. Very close to hamsters Temps above 850 are way above freezing... maybe some sleet- but no flakeage. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 25, 2019 10:38:55 GMT -6
Severe probabilities really ramping up Tuesday. Time of day isn't ideal but there definitely could be some strong storms. I agree it does look potentially nasty. On the other hand time of day could also make it a bit more concerning. Supercells racing at 55+mph at night... |
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Post by jeepers on Nov 25, 2019 10:40:03 GMT -6
Welp, I’ll be able to let you know what’s happening the upper Midwest as were currently on the road to northern WI. Last check with the NWS is 9 inches at our location with gusts to 30 starting tomorrow night. Also hints at snow fri, sat and Sunday. Hilarious sinc e my current car temp is 58 degrees. Travel home is officially up in the air.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 25, 2019 11:42:19 GMT -6
Modified SHERB on the NAM is very high Tuesday night. Note that the researchers consider MOSH and MOSHE to be better discriminators than the original SHERB and SHERBE indices.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 25, 2019 12:00:50 GMT -6
Definitely a high shear/low CAPE setup tomorrow...could be some fast hitting twisters if any destabilization is realized.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2019 12:16:32 GMT -6
that was quick. widespread slight risk from the SPC at the 1740z update
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 25, 2019 12:46:45 GMT -6
The worst part of this incredibly beautiful late November day....seeing the high wind potential later this week, and further out in the forecast range alternating between warm and wet and cold and dry....i am starting to think i will not get my icicle lights hung. Spent Sunday painting my fascia, and seeing the threat for high winds doesnt make sense to hang lights until afterwards.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 25, 2019 12:46:47 GMT -6
that was quick. widespread slight risk from the SPC at the 1740z update They're reading our forum  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2019 13:08:30 GMT -6
over/under on an ENH bullseye in the PM update?
Taking all bets.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2019 13:17:59 GMT -6
enhanced risk will wait till morning, probably 8am update..or 7am..whatever it is
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 25, 2019 13:31:54 GMT -6
Not really looking forward to pulling a 38 foot fifth wheel Wednesday in 40+ mph winds. Guess the best I can hope for are headwind rather than crosswind. Thinking the worst part will be the trek from Springfield to Branson since that is north to south.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 25, 2019 14:43:58 GMT -6
Tomorrow evening is concerning for sure. 850 winds will be cranking out of the SW at 70kts+
These big lows always seem to produce severe weather near the triple point
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 25, 2019 17:30:06 GMT -6
After the initial severe wind/quick spin up threat mid/late evening tomorrow... after frontal passage the winds line up nicely in the vertical- with looks close to 9-10*C lapse rate from the surface to a bit higher than 850mb where winds are ~60kt- strong cold air advection at 850 helping that wind to the surface. I'm going to say we see at least a couple 55mph wind gusts.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 25, 2019 17:52:51 GMT -6
I hit the winds pretty hard this morning...and mentioned possible strong storms tomorrow evening. that far out I didnt want to push too hard and risk folks getting confused on timing, impacts etc. No question it will be more center stage tomorrow morning. Time for bed!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 25, 2019 18:33:00 GMT -6
Hoping to miss the snow by leaving tomorrow mid afternoon, and miss the severe weather coming in tomorrow night. Good gravy.
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