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Post by REB on Aug 6, 2019 6:56:08 GMT -6
.01”. Ugh. We really needed some rain.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 6, 2019 8:34:08 GMT -6
latest models don't seem to be too impressed with anything else developing around here mostly well south and east of us with only an outside chance of something around the metro and nothing northwest. In otherwords another sunny oppressive day is in store. Keep those sunglasses handy...
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 6, 2019 9:04:03 GMT -6
1.01 inches in st.peters. ots a new rain gauge and in the.middle of yard 4 feet up
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 6, 2019 10:28:54 GMT -6
 MLCapes 3000+ and 25-30kt bulk shear ahead of the CU field across NE mo  Moisture convergence be enough to kick something off the next couple hours?  Something to watch as we move into the afternoon |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Aug 6, 2019 10:40:14 GMT -6
We only had a bit over half of what ajd446 got this morning. According to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete we had .55 inches of rain. It must have come down pretty hard for a while. I walked the trail along 364 this morning and some of the weeds were flattened!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 6, 2019 11:01:52 GMT -6
Biggest negating factor I see for storm development today is a bubble of dry mid-level air across the region which could act to cap things a bit...but that will also increase the wind potential if storms do fire. Definitely plenty of instability and enough shear for some strong to severe storms today.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 6, 2019 11:04:27 GMT -6
Biggest negating factor I see for storm development today is a bubble of dry mid-level air across the region which could act to cap things a bit...but that will also increase the wind potential if storms do fire. Definitely plenty of instability and enough shear for some strong to severe storms today. Chris mentioned this earlier... plenty of DCape out there now. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 6, 2019 11:39:34 GMT -6
Starting to get storms firing NW of the metro area with motion to the SE. Have to see if the expand or collapse
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 6, 2019 11:41:49 GMT -6
We only had a bit over half of what ajd446 got this morning. According to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete we had .55 inches of rain. It must have come down pretty hard for a while. I walked the trail along 364 this morning and some of the weeds were flattened! I think yours is a more realistic number. I know it rained hard this morning,. But only briefly. |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Aug 6, 2019 12:25:49 GMT -6
Looks like some of us are going to get a decent storm.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 6, 2019 12:28:53 GMT -6
Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019
Areas affected...eastern Missouri and into southern
Illinois...southwestern Indiana...and western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061808Z - 062015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over
the next 1-2 hours over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley
area, along with an associated increase in severe potential. A
watch will likely be required.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increase in
cu/cb across parts of eastern Missouri, northwest of the St. Louis
area. The increase is occurring near a very weak/subtle frontal
wave, associated with a mid-level disturbance moving southeastward
across northwestern Missouri.
With a very moist airmass undergoing continued heating/
destabilization (mixed-layer CAPE now exceeding 2500 to 3000 J/kg
across much of the discussion area), an increase in convective
development is expected to continue -- resulting in eventual
strong/locally severe storm development.
The latest LSX (St. Louis) WSR-88D VWP shows low-level flow veering
to northwesterly in the lowest 1km, and then a roughly
unidirectional northwesterly profile that increases in speed with
height. This kinematic environment supports organized,
southeastward-moving storms, with upscale growth into sustained
storm clusters expected. Locally damaging wind gusts will likely be
the primary risk, though hail is also possible. Given the
expected/gradual increase in severe potential, a WW will likely be
required in the next hour or so.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 6, 2019 12:58:11 GMT -6
T-storm watch and a warning issued within minutes of each other.
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csafozzie
Wishcaster
Wildwood, MO. Jefferson, Franklin and St Louis County borders
Posts: 139
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Post by csafozzie on Aug 6, 2019 13:33:06 GMT -6
I have never heard thunder like this before. Sounds like artillery rounds going off, no rolling thunder just lightning quickly followed by what can best be described as an explosion. Several have hit nearby. So far no power outage but there are sirens now outside heading down Hwy 100. I am betting there are more than a few splintered trees out there somewhere.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 6, 2019 13:46:56 GMT -6
healthy super south of pacific looks like it has developed an RFD
*and now it's getting knocked around by the cell just south.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 6, 2019 15:12:00 GMT -6
First good sign that winter is getting close.....I dont know how, but only spotty sprinkles here at the house 7 mile west of De Soto.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 6, 2019 15:24:08 GMT -6
Will the frontal passage kick off anything else this evening? Or are we done?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 6, 2019 17:20:31 GMT -6
Will the frontal passage kick off anything else this evening? Or are we done? I'd say we're done...satellite doesn't show anything upstream other than a few pockets of CU. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 7, 2019 9:28:46 GMT -6
The main storm train looks to stay to our west but some may sneak east starting tomorrow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 7, 2019 16:33:26 GMT -6
The main storm train looks to stay to our west but some may sneak east starting tomorrow. Looks like the ring of fire pattern really gets going around here next week as frequent energy comes over the top of the flattening ridge... |
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 7, 2019 20:46:06 GMT -6
The main storm train looks to stay to our west but some may sneak east starting tomorrow. Looks like the ring of fire pattern really gets going around here next week as frequent energy comes over the top of the flattening ridge... What does the ring of fire pattern entail? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 7, 2019 21:20:59 GMT -6
Looks like the ring of fire pattern really gets going around here next week as frequent energy comes over the top of the flattening ridge... What does the ring of fire pattern entail? You fall into it and you go down, down, down. And then it burns, burns, burns. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 8, 2019 6:47:13 GMT -6
What does the ring of fire pattern entail? You fall into it and you go down, down, down. And then it burns, burns, burns. And you get a very deep voice, dress in all black and spend time in Folsom prison |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2019 9:01:52 GMT -6
Looks like the ring of fire pattern really gets going around here next week as frequent energy comes over the top of the flattening ridge... What does the ring of fire pattern entail? Storm complexes tend to follow the edge of the ridge/heat dome and we're riding that line into next week with a lot of energy coming ashore off the Pacific. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 8, 2019 11:57:00 GMT -6
What would you all put the chances of rain at for Sunday? Considering a little trip down to the Current River.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2019 12:51:25 GMT -6
85/75* in Brighton currently...hot soup!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 8, 2019 22:54:19 GMT -6
Monster heat dome in sight next week into the week of the 22nd. Looks like our best chance of widespread triple digits this Summer and a week long plus excessive heat warning. Hazardous weather outlook already showing this.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 8, 2019 23:15:09 GMT -6
Back in town from or 5 day cruise to Mexico. Weather was perfect. Back to reality now.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 9, 2019 4:52:00 GMT -6
Corpus Christi, TX read 99/79* (H.I. 118*) yesterday around 3pm...
They're only under a heat advisory.
I don't think I'd ever even want to visit that in my life time.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 9, 2019 11:54:24 GMT -6
What does the ring of fire pattern entail? Storm complexes tend to follow the edge of the ridge/heat dome and we're riding that line into next week with a lot of energy coming ashore off the Pacific. It seems like Kansas City has been in that region this week. Now it's going to shift east. Cool thanks! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 9, 2019 11:54:49 GMT -6
Seems like that heat index would be in the 120's with that combo. No matter. Yuck
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