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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 1:15:18 GMT -6
Well after getting caught up reading here I’m debating........pretreat or not pretreat..... It's going to snow in Franklin county |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 1:22:31 GMT -6
"We are in trouble"
The exact 4 words I hate seeing from Chris. Geez. What a bunch of crap
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2019 1:24:58 GMT -6
Well after getting caught up reading here I’m debating........pretreat or not pretreat..... It's going to snow in Franklin county Kind of thought that we are going to get something and even if we don’t looks like Saturday or even next week the chemicals would still be there for either one of those. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 1:28:39 GMT -6
And the SREF plumes dropped 2" From almost 4 to just shy of 2.
Meh
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 1:30:36 GMT -6
HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR isn't too bad.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 1:33:34 GMT -6
HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR isn't too bad. Yeah gives us hope until the 06z Nam crushes us once N 4 all |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2019 1:38:22 GMT -6
Where’s that last minute north shift when you need it
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 1:44:01 GMT -6
Where’s that last minute north shift when you need it The 06Z Nam has noticibly higher heights starting up. It might be a decent indicator of a slight Northward shift. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 1:55:27 GMT -6
I should clarify… when I say we are in trouble I am referring to the immediate metro area of Saint Louis city and county and points North East… the remainder of the forecast to the Southwest still looks like it's in pretty good shape
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2019 1:56:22 GMT -6
Looking at the NAM sim radar and then what it actually has falling is depressing
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 15, 2019 1:58:20 GMT -6
Where’s that last minute north shift when you need it The 06Z Nam has noticibly higher heights starting up. It might be a decent indicator of a slight Northward shift. Agreed. I really think it’s gunna happen. Chris, I feel for ya trying to sort this mess out in 3hrs. Steady as sge goes...might just be a bad run...still other models out there to support your forecast. And if it goes wrong I’ll proudly back you up on Facebook for the idiots that criticize. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 2:02:45 GMT -6
Looking at the NAM sim radar and then what it actually has falling is depressing Right the Nam is actually pretty good. But models the dry air to be much stronger than other models. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 15, 2019 2:11:07 GMT -6
I like the NAM. Wish it would throw you a northerners a bone.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 2:13:47 GMT -6
Yeah it's probably not happening for anyone North of 70.
Unless you are West of STL.
I'll be lucky to get 1-2".
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2019 2:21:29 GMT -6
I’m just expecting a dusting here and will go from there
Stupid DAM
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 15, 2019 2:23:32 GMT -6
I’m expecting a solid 3-5” here in FC.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 2:24:55 GMT -6
I’m just expecting a dusting here and will go from there Stupid DAM I think Arnold will do better than that. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 2:30:51 GMT -6
Not sure I've been on a fine line like this one. Could get 3-4 inches. Then go to Marthasville to go throw snow on Tilawn's bare lawn.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2019 2:32:29 GMT -6
I’ll be in west Belleville for this one
Actually I’ll be in Edwardsville all morning and early afternoon tomorrow but I’m not expecting much up there
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 15, 2019 2:34:06 GMT -6
Not sure I've been on a fine line like this one. Could get 3-4 inches. Then go to Marthasville to go throw snow on Tilawn's bare lawn. Can I come?!? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 2:42:14 GMT -6
I’ll be in west Belleville for this one Actually I’ll be in Edwardsville all morning and early afternoon tomorrow but I’m not expecting much up there We will probably get 2". |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 2:46:47 GMT -6
7z HRRRR and RAP have some minor improvement to the ne
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 3:11:54 GMT -6
Ok... so this is what I'm playing with for the update. I may still tweak... but gives you an idea..  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2019 3:15:13 GMT -6
Just bump it up about 20 miles north or so  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 3:17:53 GMT -6
Just skimmed through some updated zone forecasts on NWS..seems to line up pretty well with that map Chris. They lowered totals slightly in St Louis, kept it around 3 out here. A bump about 25 miles ne would be nice for many.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 3:19:21 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 3:24:27 GMT -6
7z HRRRR and RAP have some minor improvement to the ne Yeah, the rgem is about the same as the 08z rap. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2019 3:25:57 GMT -6
Once again we here in southern St.Clair went from being in the sweet spot to it shifting away just a few hours before it starts.... its only like the 4th or 5th time it’s happened ....
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 3:28:00 GMT -6
Once again we here in southern St.Clair went from being in the sweet spot to it shifting away just a few hours before it starts.... its only like the 4th or 5th time it’s happened .... You will likely see 2"+. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2019 3:32:43 GMT -6
Once again we here in southern St.Clair went from being in the sweet spot to it shifting away just a few hours before it starts.... its only like the 4th or 5th time it’s happened .... You will likely see 2"+. I sure hope so.... NWS cut my point forecast from 2.7 down to 1.7..... seems to happen every dang time.....just gets frustrating lol |
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