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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2019 22:07:00 GMT -6
OT, proud dad post warning.
All season long, we sort of flew under the radar. When we beat Lebanon earlier in the year, I walked up to one of our fans and said, "Now we f****** mean business." Our girls just beat a really good Goreville team tonight to bring home the sectional championship--and not a senior on this squad. Sorry...I'm a little amped and felt like sharing with my "weather family". You'll be able to see pics and a story soon on the stlhighschoolsports website.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 22:08:17 GMT -6
World Series I thought the same thing , it has been in the 3-6” in range every run for days. It will be interesting to see if it gets a lot drier. It would not surprise me at all if it came in way drier.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:11:13 GMT -6
Yeah the 03Z rap actually brings the immediate metro South of i70 like 2-4".
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:11:32 GMT -6
The euro has been trending SW slowly as well
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 14, 2019 22:14:33 GMT -6
Yeah the 03Z rap actually brings the immediate metro South of i70 like 2-4". And a little quicker onset with sleet to start. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 22:19:29 GMT -6
Does anyone know how many winter weather advisorys we have had this year
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2019 22:20:23 GMT -6
Just came on here to say 03z RAP looks great but looks like that’s been covered.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:24:28 GMT -6
Just came on here to say 03z RAP looks great but looks like that’s been covered. The HRRR only goes to 18 hours. But looks much better. Best since 18z. Extrapolating it out and I think it drops 3" South of 70. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 14, 2019 22:29:23 GMT -6
Whatever the EURO says is what I believe will happen.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 22:29:29 GMT -6
I agree Friv, it’s interesting for sure you have the two short term high resolution models holding or trending slightly better, while others trended drier.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:35:45 GMT -6
I agree Friv, it’s interesting for sure you have the two short term high resolution models holding or trending slightly better, while others trended drier. Well we both know it's all we got. Is hope |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2019 22:37:07 GMT -6
It’s alive! I think?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:40:39 GMT -6
The name and GFS are in excellent agreement that Saturday has explosive potential.  |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2019 22:50:34 GMT -6
Explosive.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:56:48 GMT -6
Basically a squall line. Could pick up a quick 1-1.5". It's moving to fast for much more. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 22:58:10 GMT -6
The 04z RAP and HRRR are currently running.
We'll see if they distribute the premium dope or the fraud dope.
Because addictively comparing these runs is all the fun.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2019 23:02:50 GMT -6
The 04z RAP and HRRR are currently running. We'll see if they distribute the premium dope or the fraud dope. Because addictively comparing these runs is all the fun. Hopefully we get the "Hands down dopest dope I've ever smoked." Name the movie quote. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 23:05:54 GMT -6
Explosive diarrhea
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 23:14:22 GMT -6
Looks like the HRRR has an fgen band coming through the metro tomorrow around noon
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 23:20:36 GMT -6
The lift over the area tomorrow seems too really wane
With that dry air feed it's going to be really tough to get any accumulating snow unless we can get some sustained lift
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 23:24:34 GMT -6
Looks like the HRRR has an fgen band coming through the metro tomorrow around noon The rap continues to hold energy back. At the end of the 04z run there is a stout area of vorticity moving through Western MO. Kicking off a blob of snow through the immediate metro. The 03z run has this but after 21 hours. It's a little more organized on the 04z run. Probably drop 1-2" more extrapolation. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 23:26:22 GMT -6
Looks like the HRRR has an fgen band coming through the metro tomorrow around noon The rap continues to hold energy back. At the end of the 04z run there is a stout area of vorticity moving through Western MO. Kicking off a blob of snow through the immediate metro. The 03z run has this but after 21 hours. It's a little more organized on the 04z run. Probably drop 1-2" more extrapolation. You can also see this organizing on the HRRR at the end of the run over West Central MO |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 0:05:15 GMT -6
Euro has moved a bit sw. Still gives metro 2-4 inches. Lambert is on the far ne area of the 'decent' stuff..maybe a hair over an inch
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 0:13:06 GMT -6
The HRRR has trended back SW.
Goin to leave the STL metro essentially high and dry.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 0:26:34 GMT -6
The euro gives Belleville 2.5".
I'll freaking take it.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 0:31:40 GMT -6
The 05z rap brings 2" all the way to 64/40 with snow still falling.
A shift trending NE starting at 06z on would be great.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 0:32:36 GMT -6
agree frivs...ne trend is needed.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 1:10:40 GMT -6
We are in trouble.
I had hoped we had settled into a reasonable solution and that the dry air was now pretty well accounted for...but that appears to not be the case.
This is really where the art of forecasting is going to come into play...and how do I message this in the morning. I have three hours to figure it out.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 1:14:18 GMT -6
agree frivs...ne trend is needed. The 06z rap took a step forward at least. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2019 1:14:18 GMT -6
Well after getting caught up reading here I’m debating........pretreat or not pretreat.....
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