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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2019 8:44:55 GMT -6
Maybe we should build a wall to keep him out.  Figure out how to get his flight diverted to KC so they don't get much snow and we do |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2019 8:45:44 GMT -6
I hesitate to ask, but have they named this particular winter storm yet?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2019 8:47:32 GMT -6
No whammys!! No whammys!!!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2019 8:49:51 GMT -6
I hesitate to ask, but have they named this particular winter storm yet? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 8:52:24 GMT -6
No surprises on the 12Z NAM really. Shows trowal for Saturday Night into Sunday along I-44/I-70
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 8:53:00 GMT -6
Nam looks colder to me throughout. This is a good sign.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 9, 2019 9:01:43 GMT -6
With it getting down to 20 the next two nights the ground “should” be cold enough to not be a problem
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 9:16:16 GMT -6
Time of day of precip initiation will help a lot... And the fact there could be a brief burst of sleet on the front end will also help.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 9:21:40 GMT -6
It looks like the virga could start around 15Z on Friday and by 0Z (9 hours later) the dry air should be defeated so by 6pm on Friday we can start expecting the precipitation to break through more consistently. I'd imagine there could be fits and starts with a mixed bag of ptypes anytime after noon though.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 9:27:36 GMT -6
ICON is steady as she goes with a bit of a southern shift it seems. The northern trend may officially be bucked. It's also colder by my observation.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 9:31:08 GMT -6
The nam readjusted again even further away from it's 00z run last night.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 9:35:20 GMT -6
The GFS will probably be a smidge South of it's last run. Hopefully not drier.
I expect the other models to ultimately be 25% drier than last night when the system happens.
And further South
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 9:58:21 GMT -6
GFS is maybe a touch drier and a hair south but steady. Pretty confident in 3-5 from the WAA as long as sleet doesn't ruin the party. The wild card is still what develops on the back side Saturday night. Euro is obviously the most aggressive with this.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 10:04:07 GMT -6
GFS is maybe a touch drier and a hair south but steady. Pretty confident in 3-5 from the WAA as long as sleet doesn't ruin the party. The wild card is still what develops on the back side Saturday night. Euro is obviously the most aggressive with this. The GFS is likely to dry. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2019 10:05:55 GMT -6
 😳😬😊 |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 10:05:57 GMT -6
There's a huge difference between the FV3 and the GFS on the 12Z cycle. FV3 is further north, faster onset of precipitation, and significantly more amped up.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 10:09:15 GMT -6
The GFS and GEM both have a much weaker /disorganized def zone on the backside. GEM has a little less Precipitation but still a solid 5-9”area wide. Hopefully the EURO and Ensembles continue with there strong trends. We want the storm to close off and strengthen some as it pulls away to keep the precipitation going.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 10:14:46 GMT -6
There's a huge difference between the FV3 and the GFS on the 12Z cycle. FV3 is further north, faster onset of precipitation, and significantly more amped up. Ya the FV3 has been very consistent in that solution as well. I’m putting some stock in it since it was the first to pick up on this storm 10 days out |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 10:15:08 GMT -6
The def. zone continues to be the wildcard. Good news is we still have a solid system without it.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 10:15:50 GMT -6
There's a huge difference between the FV3 and the GFS on the 12Z cycle. FV3 is further north, faster onset of precipitation, and significantly more amped up. 12z FV3 shouldn't be out yet...? |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 10:20:41 GMT -6
After the WAA part of the storm the 12Z FV3 makes a play at an ideal GYB track for the 850mb low and makes a stab at a Memphis low. It doesn't do much with the deformation band though.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 10:21:48 GMT -6
There's a huge difference between the FV3 and the GFS on the 12Z cycle. FV3 is further north, faster onset of precipitation, and significantly more amped up. 12z FV3 shouldn't be out yet...? It runs in parallel with the old GSM-cored operational version of the GFS now so it's realtime. It goes operational in a week or two I believe. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 10:27:32 GMT -6
How much qpf is it showing on the super GFS?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 10:29:51 GMT -6
How much qpf is it showing on the super GFS? >= 1.0" is all I can say. I think there must be a distribution problem with the PGFS so the only place I can see it is on the NOAA site and they provide only limited products. It's hard to tell exactly how much QPF there is on the NOAA site. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 10:30:58 GMT -6
GFS focuses too much on that lead vort max that comes out which doesn't allow the upper level system to close off and develop like the EURO does. Pretty common bias for the GFS. Still liking the idea of 3-6" pretty much area wide with higher amounts possible down around 44/64 if the deformation comes together like the EURO shows.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 10:37:57 GMT -6
Post the gem, ukie, and fv3 qpf please
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 10:41:51 GMT -6
I prefer day 10 of the gfs...
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 10:42:17 GMT -6
Here is the 12Z FV3 QPF. It's snow depth product seems to hint at the SLR being less than 10:1 so I'd imagine it thinks there's a period of sleet, but it's still mostly snow.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 10:42:57 GMT -6
How much qpf is it showing on the super GFS? >= 1.0" is all I can say. I think there must be a distribution problem with the PGFS so the only place I can see it is on the NOAA site and they provide only limited products. It's hard to tell exactly how much QPF there is on the NOAA site. Thanks, let us pray. Lord sweet baby Jesus, This is the sboe storm we need. This is the snow storm we deserve. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2019 10:44:26 GMT -6
Was going to say the fantasy periods have lots of stuff going on based off what i saw yesterday plus a plains to ms valley blizzard at the tail end ushering in a pattern change.
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