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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 3:17:59 GMT -6
When do you sleep 920? lol I don’t lol My graduate late evening classes has my sleep schedule kind of messed up. I usually sleep from 4-11am. Ive always been more of a night owl anyway I see. I work overnights, and pretty much hate it. lol. The job is fine, hours I could do without. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 3:52:21 GMT -6
Models continue to advertise a potential winter storm for our
area beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday night.
Precipitation should spread east-northeastward into much of central
and eastern MO, west of the Mississippi River Friday afternoon as
upper level divergence increases ahead of a southern stream
shortwave over the southern Plains with low-mid level warm air
advection increasing across southeast MO and southwest IL on the
nose of a southwesterly low level jet. This precipitation should
spread into west central and southwest IL Friday evening as the
southern stream shortwave tries to phase with a northern stream
shortwave dropping southeastward through the northern Plains. With
strong evaporative cooling at the onset due to dry air in the low
levels of the atmosphere along with intensifying vertical motion the
precipitation type should favor mainly snow as the forecast
soundings show the low level temperature profile cooling to the wet
bulb temperature. There may be enough of an elevated warm layer
Friday afternoon and night to generate some sleet, mainly across
central and southeast MO. It appears that there may be break in the
precipitation Saturday morning or at least a period of lighter
intensity precipitation, but the intensity may ramp up again across
southeast MO and southwest IL Saturday afternoon into the evening as
the 850 mb low moves northeastward from AR into the TN Valley region
with the surface low moving into MS and AL further south. Followed
the operational GFS model solution as it has been consistent the
past several runs and looks reasonable. Discounted the NAM model at
this time as it appears a little too strong with the southern stream
shortwave, is a little overdone with its QPF, and looks a little too
far north with the position of the 850 mb and surface lows. The
main difference between the GFS and the ECMWF model is that the
ECMWF model develops a closed low at 500 mb by early Saturday
evening and is a little further north with its 850 mb low moving it
through southeast MO Saturday evening while the surface low moves
northeastward into northwestern TN. The ECMWF model solution would
keep significant accumulating snow going through Saturday night,
particularly across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
At this time keep pops and light QPF going Saturday night, but not
of the magnitude that the latest ECMWF model run would warrant.
Still too early to pin down where the best snow amounts will occur,
but confidence is increasing that significant accumulation is likely
across parts of our area which will hamper travel, mainly Friday
night and Saturday and also possibly Saturday night as well.
Flurries may continue on Sunday with low level moisture still in
place and a positively tilted upper level trough over our area. Any
precipitation should end by Sunday night as the upper level trough
shifts south-southeast of our area with a relatively strong surface
ridge over the region. Pronounced warming is expected by Tuesday
with a return to above normal temperatures as an upper level ridge
moves over the region, while the surface wind becomes southwesterly
as the surface ridge shifts southeast of the area.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 4:03:34 GMT -6
6z GFS is pretty meh. It tries to get a def band together but fails it appears. Though it seems to be heading there a bit more each run.
Pretty meh..compared to other models that is.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2019 4:38:36 GMT -6
 NWS up to 6am Saturday morning |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 4:42:04 GMT -6
Yeah, then the forecast has another inch or so on Saturday..and still 60% Sat night.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2019 4:45:00 GMT -6
Seen that as well. So looking like a 6”+ possibility and over a 24-36 hour time frame?
If this is the case then we would have somewhat of a chance to keep up with it on the lots.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 5:00:09 GMT -6
That forecast verbatim is ignoring all guidance except the GFS.
I expect things to end up much drier but that is pretty dry.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 5:10:46 GMT -6
What? You expect it to be much drier?
They do say in the disco they followed the GFS because it's been more consistent apparently.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 5:13:31 GMT -6
What? You expect it to be much drier? They do say in the disco they followed the GFS because it's been more consistent apparently. Much drier than the 1" qpf+ outputs. However every model except the GFS is showing that much. So maybe the GFS is to dry |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 6:00:47 GMT -6
The 06z fv3 and ggem still have a foot.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 9, 2019 6:03:49 GMT -6
I'll take this updated map from NWS. Looks great over Lincoln Co. Lol Keep upper those numbers please. Haha  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 6:06:15 GMT -6
Yeah those numbers include Saturday into Sat night.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 6:22:17 GMT -6
6z Euro appears to be a fair amount drier. Only goes to 6pm Sat. But about .25 or so less up to then.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 6:31:15 GMT -6
That’s funny, the old gfs was the last model to pick up on the storm. I think it’s ok righ now , they trended up a little, if all the models stay the same at 12z I’m sure they will raise things even more. You may then be looking at a watch being used late today or tomorrow morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 6:35:27 GMT -6
Looking a bit closer, maybe about .1-.2 less. More south this run it appears.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2019 6:37:46 GMT -6
I think we are in a great spot area wide for let's call 4 to 8 inches
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2019 6:43:15 GMT -6
There does seem to be a trend towards deformation snow around here as the system pulls away Both the GFS and Euro show a good slug of WAA snow, maybe a brief lull, then another round of deformation snow This could be a really fun system This definitely has the flavor of Christmas Eve 2002..just maybe not as cold...and maybe more widespread with the snow. That system was broken into two pieces...a quick, but intense burst of snow down near Farmington the night of the Dec 23... then as the upper low closed off...a deformation zone lifted northeast across the region...produce an additional 3-6" of snow the following day. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/Events/12_24_2002.pdfStill one of the oddest drawn maps. The colors and amounts are weird and to this day, I still have no idea how much I ended up with. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 6:44:44 GMT -6
There does seem to be a trend towards deformation snow around here as the system pulls away Both the GFS and Euro show a good slug of WAA snow, maybe a brief lull, then another round of deformation snow This could be a really fun system This definitely has the flavor of Christmas Eve 2002..just maybe not as cold...and maybe more widespread with the snow. That system was broken into two pieces...a quick, but intense burst of snow down near Farmington the night of the Dec 23... then as the upper low closed off...a deformation zone lifted northeast across the region...produce an additional 3-6" of snow the following day. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/Events/12_24_2002.pdfI speak of this system often. 6 inches from the WAA in about 2.5 hours. Top 3 heaviest snow I've ever seen...ended up with 11.5 at my location in Ste. Gen so I'm not sure where they got that 7" report. That measurement was actually taken on several flat surfaces on the back porch. I could go for that again lol. I'm very aware still of the sleet potential, but we shall see. |
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Post by birddog on Jan 9, 2019 6:53:32 GMT -6
My question, is wind going to be part of this event?
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 9, 2019 6:57:38 GMT -6
Is Cantore coming to the Lou?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 9, 2019 7:08:01 GMT -6
Is Cantore coming to the Lou? You're fired!!!!!! |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 9, 2019 7:24:41 GMT -6
Is Cantore coming to the Lou? You're fired!!!!!! Maybe we should build a wall to keep him out.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 9, 2019 7:35:24 GMT -6
C’mon, this is the exact reason he comes! It may not be a blizzard,
But build it, he will come, right? He brings the snow with him! Gotta love the forecast! Ready for a good storm! The daffodils and birds think it’s spring and it’s not!
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Post by perryville on Jan 9, 2019 7:38:12 GMT -6
This definitely has the flavor of Christmas Eve 2002..just maybe not as cold...and maybe more widespread with the snow. That system was broken into two pieces...a quick, but intense burst of snow down near Farmington the night of the Dec 23... then as the upper low closed off...a deformation zone lifted northeast across the region...produce an additional 3-6" of snow the following day. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/Events/12_24_2002.pdfI speak of this system often. 6 inches from the WAA in about 2.5 hours. Top 3 heaviest snow I've ever seen...ended up with 11.5 at my location in Ste. Gen so I'm not sure where they got that 7" report. That measurement was actually taken on several flat surfaces on the back porch. I could go for that again lol. I'm very aware still of the sleet potential, but we shall see. The sleet monster has won a lot of these battles over the past 5 to 6 years. Keeping that as a real possibility until I see warning level snow. I could see a sleet/snow/sleet/snow scenario for us, with little bit of freezing drizzle just to make the roads terrible. |
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Jan 9, 2019 7:42:58 GMT -6
This definitely has the flavor of Christmas Eve 2002..just maybe not as cold...and maybe more widespread with the snow. That system was broken into two pieces...a quick, but intense burst of snow down near Farmington the night of the Dec 23... then as the upper low closed off...a deformation zone lifted northeast across the region...produce an additional 3-6" of snow the following day. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/Events/12_24_2002.pdfI speak of this system often. 6 inches from the WAA in about 2.5 hours. Top 3 heaviest snow I've ever seen...ended up with 11.5 at my location in Ste. Gen so I'm not sure where they got that 7" report. That measurement was actually taken on several flat surfaces on the back porch. I could go for that again lol. I'm very aware still of the sleet potential, but we shall see. Same here. I was at work at Fredericktown when it started as flurries. By the time I got off, it took almost 2 hours to go from Fredericktown to Desloge in four-wheel drive. I have never saw so many cars in the ditch between Fredericktown and Farmington in my life and then the stretch between Farmington and Desloge was a parking lot. We wound up with about 10" or so in my yard by the next afternoon. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 7:45:27 GMT -6
QPF roundup at the airport:
0Z EPS: 0.7"
0Z GEFS: 0.6"
0Z UKMET: 1.0"
0Z GFS: 0.4"
0Z FV3: 1.0"
0Z ECMWF: 1.1"
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 7:50:32 GMT -6
Here's a pretty unique product that AccuWx provides which is a blend of the EPS and GEFS.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 9, 2019 8:08:01 GMT -6
Maybe we should build a wall to keep him out. Can't get the funding for it. 🤣 |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 9, 2019 8:12:54 GMT -6
QPF roundup at the airport: 0Z EPS: 0.7"
0Z GEFS: 0.6"
0Z UKMET: 1.0"
0Z GFS: 0.4"
0Z FV3: 1.0"
0Z ECMWF: 1.1"
Most interesting thing that stands out to me is that the GFS and GFS V3 are the 2 total opposite sides of the spectrum from all the other models |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 8:14:33 GMT -6
IBM is going to make their GRAF model available to the public starting this year. It will run on 1 hour cycles 24x a day and have a resolution of 3km. It will be the first storm scale global model to be put in operation. It will also be the first partially crowd sourced model in terms in of data assimilation. It will ingest everything the GFS does plus data from personal weather stations and cell phones. www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model |
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