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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 8, 2019 19:46:46 GMT -6
Just don't start mentioning that girls name that starts with 'L' and the infamous Football. Let's just keep that Football away from her.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 8, 2019 19:49:00 GMT -6
Just don't start mentioning that girls name that starts with 'L' and the infamous Football. Let's just keep that Football away from her. I saw her in my backyard looking for it, and holding a hair dryer pointed directly Southwest. It was weird. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 19:51:33 GMT -6
Has anyone seen the super GFS it hasn’t updated since 6z? It may be a distribution problem. It's available on NOAA's eval site. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Let's just say the 18Z cycle is a little more than your average tea and crumpets style event. I had to do a double take and make sure I was looking at it right. Edit: fixed link |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2019 19:57:19 GMT -6
I recall earlier models displaying an unusual high pressure track which sort of forced a good track for us, but if that slides off to the east, I can see a Lucy event.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2019 20:01:47 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 20:25:45 GMT -6
Snow is never a slam dunk around here until 6 hours AFTER it's over. Best line ever! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2019 20:28:59 GMT -6
Snow is never a slam dunk around here until 6 hours AFTER it's over. Yeah and it's usually gone by then...like it never even happened! |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 8, 2019 20:43:13 GMT -6
0z NAM @ HR66 looks pretty far north....just an observation...snow breaks out next frame but it makes me nervous.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 8, 2019 20:45:17 GMT -6
Nam looks great along and north of 44. I think we are fine.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 8, 2019 20:48:33 GMT -6
NAM just looks confused to me with the upper dynamics and how it relates to the low levels.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 20:49:23 GMT -6
NAM continues its northern route , definitely the furthest north but also shows a stronger storm. I agree with the others who have mentioned the WAM , I definitely think sleet will be an issue in southern Missouri . I think the metro is in a good spot for now
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 20:57:23 GMT -6
0Z NAM looks similar to the 18Z PGFS/FV3. The NAM closes off at the 500mb level in northern MO. FV3 is similar. They both have similar 250mb jet streak patterns. Both are saying the entire event will be frozen with mostly snow for the metro area. There would probably some sleet at onset on both of them.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 20:59:57 GMT -6
700mb and 850mb low centers are both north of I-70. I cannot think of any time heavy snow has fallen south of those tracks. If the NAM is correct, it is likely holding on to the cold air too long and under forecasting the WAM...and in that case, this turns into sleet or freezing rain event. Fortunately, we are still a ways from giving the NAM more than cursory consideration...but it certainly adds more intrigue.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 21:04:41 GMT -6
One thing the NAM shows the onset is about 4-6 hours sooner. Often times WAA events do tend to start a little quicker than modeled. Something to keep an eye on.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 21:04:53 GMT -6
FV3 is closed at 850mb in north of I-70 as well yet the 0C isotherm is in southern MO. The 18Z cycle is significantly further north than the 12Z cycle.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 21:10:42 GMT -6
Has anyone seen the super GFS it hasn’t updated since 6z? It may be a distribution problem. It's available on NOAA's eval site. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.phpLet's just say the 18Z cycle is a little more than your average tea and crumpets style event. I had to do a double take and make sure I was looking at it right. I don't see it. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 21:12:35 GMT -6
18Z Euro and 0Z NAM look similar as well. The precip shields are nearly identical and it's almost entirely snow for all of MO on the Euro as well. Interesting...
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 21:15:10 GMT -6
It may be a distribution problem. It's available on NOAA's eval site. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.phpLet's just say the 18Z cycle is a little more than your average tea and crumpets style event. I had to do a double take and make sure I was looking at it right. I don't see it. Ugg...sorry. Bad link. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.phpmageval.ncep.noaa.gov and mag.ncep.noaa.gov are different. The op GFS is available at mag and the PGFS is available at mageval. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 21:16:04 GMT -6
Stupid nam is getting too close to Chicago lol.
My flight is at 7am Saturday, and I would rather be in Las Vegas than O'Hare unless it is a 6-10 inch storm.
Bring it south.
Also, I echo comments that WAA events usually start 4-6 hours earlier than modeled.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 21:19:26 GMT -6
And it begins...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 21:21:16 GMT -6
I would rather be in Vegas, even if it was a 6-10” storm
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 21:21:26 GMT -6
In the storm I already compared this to. The h7 low was in Nebraska/N. Kansas. We got a foot.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 21:26:07 GMT -6
I would rather be in Vegas, even if it was a 6-10” storm I've been to Vegas more than I have had a 6-10 inch winter storm since I turned 21 lol. Flights are dirt cheap, especially with Frontier expanding. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 21:29:35 GMT -6
18Z Euro and 0Z NAM look similar as well. The precip shields are nearly identical and it's almost entirely snow for all of MO on the Euro as well. Interesting... The nam holds onto a razor thin warm layer over SE mo...then after the initial WAA thump the name crashes the snow/mix line to Arkansas. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 21:38:25 GMT -6
Icon is phenomenal. Actually trending colder.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 21:39:49 GMT -6
00z Icon looks great from 70 south.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 21:42:12 GMT -6
18Z Euro and 0Z NAM look similar as well. The precip shields are nearly identical and it's almost entirely snow for all of MO on the Euro as well. Interesting... The nam holds onto a razor thin warm layer over SE mo...then after the initial WAA thump the name crashes the snow/mix line to Arkansas. Because like Brighton wx said the nams low level jet is screaming. Check this out:   We'll see how it plays out |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 8, 2019 21:42:37 GMT -6
Where do you see the icon
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 21:44:02 GMT -6
Where do you see the icon Tropical Tidbits |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2019 21:48:24 GMT -6
windy
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