luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Jan 8, 2019 15:55:23 GMT -6
Keeping an eye out since it's only Tues. Most college kids are heading back this weekend.
I have one going back to SEMO Sunday morning about 11am
The high schooler is already hoping for a Fri and/or Mon snow day. Fox district lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 16:01:55 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 16:14:07 GMT -6
Chris, serious question. Any particular reason MODOT doesn't have information suites like Kansas City offers with SCOUT. One of the things that would be of interest to many is road temperatures and bridge deck temperatures. I really wonder how much of an immediate impact a snow storm like this will have when pavement temps are so warm. I included the link to the dashboard to show everyone. Just curious www.stormwatch.com/dashboard/?dashboard=9ac2c9ee-8281-41ad-9014-bc59773887eeThose are KDOT cameras and sensors. In Missori, sensor temperatures come from a proprietary network that is not available to the public. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 16:20:12 GMT -6
So when I open this link on my desktop I see the new one issued this afternoon. But then I open it on my phone it see the old one from this morning. Odd |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 16:34:14 GMT -6
49 of 51 EPS members have 2+ inches. Many have 6 or more. A few have over a foot.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 16:45:23 GMT -6
49 of 51 EPS members have 2+ inches. Many have 6 or more. A few have over a foot. There are some absolute monsters in there.
Mean is 6" for the metro, slightly more south and slightly less north. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 17:21:10 GMT -6
18z GEFS still showing 4-6” in the metro as the mean
All but one has 2”+ in the metro with many showing 6”+
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 17:33:30 GMT -6
18z NAM starts the trend...it is way far north... brings mix almost all the way to STL with nothing stopping the WAA. Of course... it is the 18z NAM at 84 hours. But it gives you an idea of why I will not underestimate the WAM and the warm wedge.
It also has the 850mb low up near KC. That is not a favorable snow track if that verifies.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2019 17:39:45 GMT -6
18z NAM starts the trend...it is way far north... brings mix almost all the way to STL with nothing stopping the WAA. Of course... it is the 18z NAM at 84 hours. But it gives you an idea of why I will not underestimate the WAM and the warm wedge. It also has the 850mb low up near KC. That is not a favorable snow track if that verifies. I was just looking at that...the sharper/deeper trof allows the mid-level flow to back and strengthen with an EWL developing up to about 44/64. Right now that's the N/warm outlier...the LLJ is much stronger than other modlels. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 17:42:47 GMT -6
With the EPS and GEFS ensembles highlighting metro points south for the heaviest snow I feel pretty confident in thinking the NAM is to amped up. But I guess you never know
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 17:51:38 GMT -6
With the EPS and GEFS ensembles highlighting metro points south for the heaviest snow I feel pretty confident in thinking the NAM is to amped up. But I guess you never know Yeah, classic nam at 84 hours. Not really any reason to give it the time of day when it is a strong northern outlier. Confirmed bias. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 18:15:01 GMT -6
I totally agree on the NAM , it has has a northern bias all winter. I like the 3-7” range it covers everything
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 18:15:51 GMT -6
Has anyone seen the super GFS it hasn’t updated since 6z?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 18:21:38 GMT -6
18z NAM starts the trend...it is way far north... brings mix almost all the way to STL with nothing stopping the WAA. Of course... it is the 18z NAM at 84 hours. But it gives you an idea of why I will not underestimate the WAM and the warm wedge. It also has the 850mb low up near KC. That is not a favorable snow track if that verifies. That's what prompted my last post in the last thread. Yes it's the nam but I've seen this movie too many times. Its a very real concern. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 18:29:07 GMT -6
Has anyone seen the super GFS it hasn’t updated since 6z? Thats what I was thinking?? |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 8, 2019 18:31:37 GMT -6
I totally agree on the NAM , it has has a northern bias all winter. I like the 3-7” range it covers everything NAM has always had that bias and right now we shouldn’t even look at because it is after all the NAM at 84 hrs. I’m still sticking with the 5-8” range going from the higher amounts SW of STL to NE along 44. I do still think areas like Cape G. will have a reasonable amount of contamination cutting into totals. Perryville is a fine line but still looks to cash in as of right now. I would actually side on a further southeast solution and could believe that on any model but not the NAM right now. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 18:33:45 GMT -6
18z ggem looks amazing.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 18:39:15 GMT -6
What does it show
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 18:46:05 GMT -6
Light to moderate snow for many, many hours. Extremely long duration event for the area compared to recent history. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 18:55:44 GMT -6
Maybe I am wrong...but it seems to me that this season the NAM has been far superior...and when it has been discounted as the northern outlier...it has been the others that have played catch up. That was certainly the case with last week's rain/sleet system in Farmington... and the "big" snow in November.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2019 18:59:06 GMT -6
Maybe I am wrong...but it seems to me that this season the NAM has been far superior...and when it has been discounted as the northern outlier...it has been the others that have played catch up. That was certainly the case with last week's rain/sleet system in Farmington... and the "big" snow in November. Would agree. The NAM definitely has a bias WRT LLJ though...it always seems to have screaming low-level winds. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 19:02:39 GMT -6
Maybe I am wrong...but it seems to me that this season the NAM has been far superior...and when it has been discounted as the northern outlier...it has been the others that have played catch up. That was certainly the case with last week's rain/sleet system in Farmington... and the "big" snow in November. If the euro, gfs, and ensembles all had the snow centered in Arkansas, but the 18z nam had a way north solution over St. Louis, would you be buying into it or telling us it's the 18z nam at 84 hours? |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 8, 2019 19:07:46 GMT -6
Maybe I am wrong...but it seems to me that this season the NAM has been far superior...and when it has been discounted as the northern outlier...it has been the others that have played catch up. That was certainly the case with last week's rain/sleet system in Farmington... and the "big" snow in November. Calling all Moderators.....this kind of talk can not be tolerated.....Ban Hammer where are you......oh...wait a minute.....oopsy.....maybe I will just go back and pull up that 11-13" model run from earlier.....carry on. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 19:08:19 GMT -6
Maybe I am wrong...but it seems to me that this season the NAM has been far superior...and when it has been discounted as the northern outlier...it has been the others that have played catch up. That was certainly the case with last week's rain/sleet system in Farmington... and the "big" snow in November. Would agree. The NAM definitely has a bias WRT LLJ though...it always seems to have screaming low-level winds. That is also true. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 8, 2019 19:11:45 GMT -6
On the "this likely will happen side", I tore into a head gasket replacement. In front of the house because garage is full. I think this will happen just because of that.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 19:12:22 GMT -6
For me it's a matter of history. I've seen lots of sleet contamination and with surface temps just below freezing I'm concerned. Hope I end up wrong on this one but I don't see the bigger snow totals down here. It'll be fun to watch evolve for sure. Lots of time yet.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 19:13:34 GMT -6
Maybe I am wrong...but it seems to me that this season the NAM has been far superior...and when it has been discounted as the northern outlier...it has been the others that have played catch up. That was certainly the case with last week's rain/sleet system in Farmington... and the "big" snow in November. If the euro, gfs, and ensembles all had the snow centered in Arkansas, but the 18z nam had a way north solution over St. Louis, would you be buying into it or telling us it's the 18z nam at 84 hours? I never said I was buying into it lol. I only pointed out that its the 18z model...it is way north...and that happens to agree with my thought that the WAM needs to be watched and this is event...although looking good...is not a slam dunk. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 8, 2019 19:18:34 GMT -6
Once sleet enters the model fray, I get nervous. After sleetageddon..fool me once,shame on you. Fool me twice, er..uh..won't get fooled again.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 19:19:57 GMT -6
The St. Louis AFD...
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 19:40:47 GMT -6
Snow is never a slam dunk around here until 6 hours AFTER it's over.
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